2021 now looking bleak for potential U.S. theater reopening

[Jordan Levinson]

Experts including Fauci have moved the goalposts, saying recently that at the very best, the country could very much see "semblances of normality" come late next year, but we should also expect full capacity at mass events like live theatre much later.

This comes despite the promising news on the vaccine front, with some EUA's being given potentially a month or two away.

I now see a Spring 2022 target reopening for NY and regional theaters... thoughts?

[Sutton Ross]

Next Fall or Winter is still very possible. 

[ACL2006]

Sutton Ross said: "Next Fall or Winter is still very possible."

 

And with more breakthroughs with treatment, I think this is becoming a more obtainable target date.

[Sunny11]

Remember that Coronavirus is a family of viruses that cause illness in people. There are 7 currently known types including the current COVID-19 and SARS and MERS from recent smaller scale epidemics.

The scientists say that the vaccines being developed so far have worked against mutated variants but that might not always be the case.

Study link

the vaccine might end up being like like the flu jab. In that it will protect us from the one specific strain of virus but people still get ill if they catch a different one. I E, not a magic bullet.

[HogansHero]

I don't think the goalposts have moved; I just think that some of the wishful thinking has dissipated. I think there may well be SOME theatre by next fall/winter, but as has been the case all along, Broadway will follow well behind that for a large number of reasons including the size of the venues and the facts that social distancing is not economically viable and that tourism (on which Bwy is heavily dependent) is going to trail. 

[Jordan Catalano]

The goalposts weren’t moved. They’re still predicting a vaccine at the same timeline. Also, Faucci has said that people going to the theater will happen next year but the audience will most certainly be wearing masks for a good part of it. Nothing has changed.

[Wesman702]

Wish I could be more optimistic about the return of Broadway but will audiences accept the various protocols , the very limited restroom facilities at many of the theatre, the lack of social distancing on very crowded 44th and 45th Street, the waiting on lines to come into theatres when you're atop one another, the possible necessity of temperature checks (and how will refunds be handled if you've bought a ticket and for whatever reason you have a slight cold and fail the check) and how many people will want to use public transportation to get to & from the theatre-which will entail more mask-wearing. Re masks: Not sure I would want to pay the high cost of a ticket and have to wear a mask for two to two and a half hours. But I love Broadway and hope that my fears will be allayed. I do believe that a proven vaccine and a responsiveness by the American public to take this vaccine will be essential to helping Broadway recover.

[HogansHero]

@Wesman702 Our individual optimism/pessimism doesn't really matter. Broadway is not reopening with social distancing, mask wearing, or other virus precaution steps. It can't. Like all other viruses, this one will pass, whether due to a vaccine or other effective treatment or because it just gets bored. Then we will come back. I think that might happen later next year, for non-tourist-dependent shows, and then maybe in spring 22 for something approaching "normal" with the caveat that it will be a new normal. As rehearsed previously, we are likely to have non-Broadway theatre well before Broadway reopens, and we will wear masks and socially distance as we are doing now. Lots of folks are wearing masks more than 2.5 hours already, including the ones who will save your life if you get sick, and the ones who will sell you food and medicine etc etc etc

[FindingNamo]

"Our individual optimism/pessimism doesn't really matter."

And yet, this seems to be the only issue that influences the discourse and public health policy in this country.  Asking about real numbers is a "nasty" question. 

[HogansHero]

FindingNamo said: ""Our individual optimism/pessimism doesn't really matter."

And yet, this seems to be the only issue that influences the discourse and public health policy in this country. Asking about real numbers is a "nasty" question."

My comment was directed to Broadway reopening only. I'm not sure I correctly understand what you're saying but if I read it the way you intended it, then I of course agree. Pointedly, we have a very different discourse and public health policy in New York, where it's all about the numbers, but alas the state seems like it is lost in a world gone mad. 

[FindingNamo]

I was probably unclear and making a connection only obvious in my misfiring brain.

[HogansHero]

A misfiring brain is better than no brain at all.

[KKeller6]

I don't think there's any question that Fauci recently discussed pushing the timeline back for " feeling comfortable" about going to a theatre.

[Alex Kulak2]

I think we're looking at a big murky stretch of time in the near future where the powers that be will say "Going to the theatre is still not as safe as it used to be, but you may go if you are willing to follow guidelines and assume a certain level of risk."

[HogansHero]

KKeller6 said: "I don't think there's any question that Fauci recently discussed pushing the timeline back for " feeling comfortable" about going to a theatre."

I think there are two things at play here, the epidemiology (on which Fauci is expert) and the subsequent psychology (on which he is making a guess just like everyone else). As rehearsed, for Broadway, the extra layer of "normalcy" depends on the tourist lag and the overall economic condition that feeds that market. The "powers that be" (the state, the unions, etc) are not going to allow Broadway to reopen until it is safe and as also rehearsed "guidelines" and Broadway don't mix. 

[Alex Kulak2]

It makes me wonder how SNL has been managing to have a live masked studio audience. Are SAG and the TV unions more lenient?

[jpbran]

It’s a far smaller than usual audience of pre-screened front-line workers & invited groups who arrive together. B’way would have a tough time surviving with only 1/3 of the seats filled for social distancing. 

[HogansHero]

Alex Kulak2 said: "It makes me wonder how SNL has been managing to have a live masked studio audience. Are SAG and the TV unions more lenient?"

They are operating under the state's film/tv protocol. Everyone in the "audience" is paid to be there. There is nothing to compare with AEA because there is (with very limited and ad hoc exceptions) no Equity protocol, nor could there be, since having an audience is verboten. Needless to say, there is no model pursuant to which live theatre can proceed with a paid audience.

[uncageg]

jpbran said: "It’s a far smaller than usualaudience of pre-screened front-line workers & invitedgroups who arrive together. B’way would have a tough time surviving with only 1/3 of the seats filled for social distancing."

A month or so ago I looked into tickets for SNL (Ticketing is closed now) and there was a stipulation for the groups. From what I remember they had to be people who lived together. Family or people quarantining together. (With proof I think) And I think it was in groups of 4 or 6. You couldn't get a single ticket.

 

[OlBlueEyes]

Genuinely positive news from Pfizer today concerning their coronavirus vaccine sent the markets skyward today. Of course still a long way to go and all the usual caveats, but this caught people's attention.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-effective/

[HogansHero]

OlBlueEyes said: "Genuinely positive news from Pfizer today concerning their coronavirus vaccine sent the markets skyward today. Of course still a long way to go and all the usual caveats, but this caught people's attention."

Indeed, and coupled with the arguably even more significant authorization of the Eli Lilly's antibody therapy. All of this against the backdrop of the horrific explosion of new cases hospitalizations and deaths. I expect New York and the rest of the Northeast will be back in essential worker mode soon. That said, I think the theatre timetable on this is about on the same track discussed above, with Broadway realistically pushed to the Spring of '22 with maybe rare exceptions. 

 

[SouthernCakes]

Looking to the UK, I guess there’s no way for, say, Six to move to a bigger theater - like the one at Madison Sq - and do socially distance seating and make some money that way? So sad walking by these closed theaters with shows that never even got to open.

[OlBlueEyes]

As the infection rate nears three percent of those tested in New York City, the Mayor is talking about imposing restrictions and targeting certain zip codes for more intensive testing. Although we have been hearing a lot about all the record new cases being reported in the U.S., far exceeding the number of new cases back in March and April, the press is being a little disingenuous. The country is suffering from less than half the daily deaths as was the case in March and April. In addition, the new cases have been greatest in virgin areas of the country, including smaller cities and sparsely populated rural areas. The pandemic has yet to double back on an area already hard hit and reproduced anything like the original death rate.

These results have been confirmed by the experience of Italy. The first wave of infections brought northern Italy to its knees, with a number of deaths approaching horrific. The second wave is mostly doing its damage to the south of the country. The Lombardy region of northern Italy, which had a third of all cases in the spring, has a sixth of the new cases now.  And tellingly, the number of people in intensive care in Italy is only a seventh of what it was during the worst periods of spring.

So will New York be forced to go through another disastrous round of COVID-19? We don't know, but there is some evidence that it will not.

[qolbinau]

HogansHero said: "OlBlueEyes said: "Genuinely positive news from Pfizer today concerning their coronavirus vaccine sent the markets skyward today. Of course still a long way to go and all the usual caveats, but this caught people's attention."

Indeed, and coupled with the arguably even more significant authorization of the Eli Lilly's antibody therapy. All of this against the backdrop of the horrific explosion of new cases hospitalizations and deaths. I expect New York and the rest of the Northeast will be back in essential worker mode soon. That said, I think the theatre timetable on this is about on the same track discussed above, with Broadway realistically pushed to the Spring of '22 with mayberare exceptions.

"

How much of the USA do you anticipate will have had a vaccine by July 2021?

[HogansHero]

@OlBlueEyes Everything you say is accurate. I just want to add one thing about the early death rate, which is that it was hugely affected by nursing home deaths, something that will not happen again. When you add that to the advancements in medical knowledge (beyond the vaccine but including other treatments which are expanding exponentially, especially at the critical care level as well as far more acute diagnostic savvy), it appears we will have less severe (but still sad and horrific) statistics from the second wave.

@golbinau I have not seen anything that reliably answers that question but what I have seen suggests it will not be broad enough by then to translate into herd immunity, and that's even with aggressive efforts by a new administration (that will undoubtedly have this in the rear view mirror sooner than the current one would). Also worth mentioning, because it is hard to fully appreciate from the outside, is that New York is really a bubble within the US, with much lower current statistics, an aggressive protocol for those arriving from other parts of the country, and its own vaccine timetable (within the context of products becoming available generally of course). This latter could mean that the NY region will be prepared to have theatre again by July, but not at the Broadway level where tourists are (with few exceptions) essential.