Journalist experts at GoldDerby.com Still Favor the Broadway Hit to Win the Top Prize, But Cut Its Chances in Many Other Races. "Twelve Angry Men" and "Doubt's" Brian O'Byrne Surge Ahead for Best Revival and Best Actor.
In terms of momentum, "Spamalot" has lost a lot as the Broadway Mega-Hit heads into this Sunday's Tony Awards (8 p.m., CBS). Although it's still favored by experts to win Best Musical, its odds have been cut drastically to 8 to 5 from the early runaway 9-to-1 odds it received when nominations were announced several weeks ago. Back then, most GoldDerby.com gurus believed it would win 8 or more Tonys, but now -- based upon monitoring industry and voter buzz -- they favor it in merely in several races, including Best Director (Mike Nichols, 6-to-5 odds) and Best Featured Actress (Sara Ramirez, 1-to-5 odds), too.Some awards that usually go to the Best Musical champ are now expected to split between "The Light in the Piazza" (9-to-5 odds to win Best Musical Score) and "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" (2-to-1 odds to win Best Book of a Musical).The newly revised racetrack odds were drafted by David Scott of America's Line (Americasline.com) based upon the views of GoldDerby pundits Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly), Elysa Gardner (USA Today), Susan Haskins (host and producer of PBS show Theater Talk), Mike Kuchwara (Associated Press), Patrick Pacheco (Show People), Michael Riedel (New York Post, Theater Talk), David Sheward (Backstage) and GoldDerby host Tom O'Neil (In Touch Weekly). The odds are issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling.
In the contest for Best Play, Pulitzer Prize champ "Doubt" maintains the same early odds it was given by GoldDerby gurus (3 to 5) to beat "The Pillowman," which opened recently to rave reviews. However, revised odds change the leader for Best Revival of a Play, giving the edge to "Twelve Angry Men" (7 to 5) over "Glengarry Glen Ross" (8 to 5) and "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" (9 to 5).Some of the tightest races pit Hollywood celebrities against beloved Broadway veterans who aren't widely known by the general public. According to the newly revised odds, past Tony winner Brian O'Byrne ("Doubt," 3 to 2 odds) has a slight edge over James Earl Jones ("On Golden Pond," 6 to 5) and Billy Crudup ("The Pillowman," 4 to 1) for Best Actor in a Play.Veteran stage trouper Victoria Clark ("Light in the Piazza") has a slim lead (5 to 4 odds) for Best Musical Actress, but needs to be leery of Christina Applegate ("Sweet Charity," 3 to 2 odds), who famously rallied from suffering a broken foot to save the multi-million-dollar revival in the classic Broadway tradition of The Show Must Go On!
Tony fans can see GoldDerby gurus battle over predix in video posted at the site, which records a recent panel "slugfest" moderated by New York University professor Michael Zam. Additional video includes Susan Haskins of "Theater Talk" interviewing American Theatre Wing executive director Howard Sherman, who explains how Tony voting works. BEST PLAY "Doubt" - 3/5 "The Pillowman" - 4/5 "Gem of the Ocean" - 40/1 "Democracy" - 40/1BEST MUSICAL "Spamalot!" 8/5 "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" 2/1 "The Light in the Piazza" 3/1 "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" 4/1BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY "Twelve Angry Men" - 7/5 "Glengarry Glen Ross" - 8/5 "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" - 9/5 "On Golden Pond" - 50/1BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL La Cage aux Folles 2/3 Sweet Charity" - 4/5 Pacific Overtures" - 50/1BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY Brían F. O'Byrne, "Doubt" - 7/5 James Earl Jones, "On Golden Pond" - 5/2 Bill Irwin, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" - 7/2 Billy Crudup, "The Pillowman" - 4/1 Philip Bosco, "Twelve Angry Men" - 40/1
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY Cherry Jones, "Doubt" - 3/2 Kathleen Turner, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" - 8/5 Phylicia Rashad, "Gem of the Ocean" - 4/1 Laura Linney, "Sight Unseen" - 5/1 Mary-Louise Parker, "Reckless" - 30/1BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Norbert Leo Butz, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 6/5 John Lithgow, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 5/2 Tim Curry, "Spamalot!" - 3/1 Hank Azaria, "Spamalot! " - 6/1 Gary Beach, "La Cage aux Folles" - 35/1BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Victoria Clark, "The Light in the Piazza" - 5/4 Christina Applegate, "Sweet Charity- 3/2 Sherie Rene Scott, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 7/2 Sutton Foster, "Little Women" - 30/1 Erin Dilly, "Chitty Chitty Bang Bang" - 40/1BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY Michael Stuhlbarg, "The Pillowman" - 8/5 Liev Schreiber, "Glengarry Glen Ross" - 9/5 Alan Alda, "Glengarry Glen Ross" - 2/1 Gordon Clapp, "Glengarry Glen Ross" - 8/1 David Harbour, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" - 40/1BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY Adriane Lennox, "Doubt" - 9/5 Amy Ryan, "A Streetcar Named Desire" - 2/1 Heather Goldenhersh, "Doubt" - 11/5 Mireille Enos, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" - 8/1 Dana Ivey, "The Rivals" - 40/1
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Dan Fogler, "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" - 1/2 Michael McGrath, "Spamalot!" - 3/1 Christopher Sieber, "Spamalot!" - 7/2 Marc Kudisch, "Chitty Chitty Bang Bang" - 40/1 Matthew Morrison, "The Light in the Piazza" - 50/1BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Sara Ramirez, "Spamalot!" - 1/5 Jan Maxwell, "Chitty Chitty Bang Bang" - 6/1 Joanna Gleason, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 8/1 Kelli O'Hara, "The Light in the Piazza" - 30/1 Celia Keenan-Bolger, "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" - 40/1BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY Doug Hughes, "Doubt" - 4/5 John Crowley, "The Pillowman" - 3/1 Joe Mantello, "Glengarry Glen Ross" - 7/2 Scott Ellis, "Twelve Angry Men" - 5/1BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL Mike Nichols, "Spamalot!" - 6/5 Bartlett Sher, "The Light in the Piazza" - 2/1 Jack O'Brien, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 3/1 James Lapine, "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" - 6/1BEST MUSICAL SCORE Adam Guettel, "The Light in the Piazza" - 9/5 William Finn, "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" - 11/5 David Yazbek, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 3/1 John Du Prez, Eric Idle, "Spamalot!" - 7/2
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL Rachel Sheinkin, "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" - 2/1 Eric, Idle, "Spamalot!" - 12/5 Craig Lucas, "The Light in the Piazza" - 13/5 Jeffrey Lane, "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels" - 3/1GoldDerby.com is a noncommercial Internet racetrack where pros and amateurs meet to predict who'll win the top showbiz kudos, including the Oscars, Golden Globes, Grammys, Emmys and Tonys. The site is designed by Will Ackerman and Mike Medina. Homepage illustration by Ty Wilson. Its odds are set by David Scott of America's Line (Americasline.com) based upon the collective opinions of GoldDerby's journalist experts. The odds are issued for amusement purposes only and should not be used for gambling.