Exclusive: Inside the Numbers - Who Benefited and Why Broadway Still Needs a Tax Credit

It has been over a month since the news came out that New York State’s $400 million allocation for the New York City Musical and Theatrical Production Tax Credit had almost dried up. In the intervening time, there have been a lot of shorter stories on how important the tax credit is and next steps related to it. That was the type of story I would have written weeks ago. But, because that’s been done, I’m going to write about the details of it all, including a few things that I was surprised by.  

WHO RECEIVED THE TAX CREDIT

As of August 18, 2025, $232,840,842 in credits has been awarded and another $136,370,321 has been allocated. The Empire State Development allocates funds upon application estimates, before actual awards, so that $136 million plus is basically spoken for, though it is “estimated,” meaning the amounts could change in either direction before the actual award. (For a complete analysis of what this credit actually is—how it works—please see my prior story.)

Interestingly, despite the credit being, by law, explicitly for “for-profit” shows, several shows ostensibly produced by non-profits received the credit. And we’re not talking commercial transfers like Appropriate at the Belasco—as you will see from the full list below, we’re talking Liberation off-Broadway, Cult of Love on Broadway, and many more. I had not previously viewed these as eligible.

The statutory and regulatory provisions related to this credit stated that qualified productions are “for-profit live, dramatic stage presentation[s].” As further evidence of this focus on commercial productions, when State Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal proposed revisions to the law (that were not adopted) on February 25, one of his proposed revisions was an expansion of the geographic area of Level One (read: Broadway) venues, because the current law does not cover Lincoln Center, and he wanted to make sure  the “geographic area… include[d] Lincoln Center, allowing commercial producers using their venues to benefit from the tax credit.”

Perhaps there was commercial enhancement for all the relevant shows, and some (but not all) were officially produced “in association” with or “by special arrangement” with commercial producers, but they were part of a not-for-profit’s usual season. In keeping with this, the shows were on the special LORT contracts that only apply to non-profit producing entities at their own houses. For example, this means, for Broadway at least, the minimum allowable pay for Actors’ Equity members was less than it would have been for a commercial production. Yet these same productions are applying to the state as for-profit productions. I asked a spokesperson for the Empire State Development about these productions to ensure I wasn’t missing something and, after checking, she confirmed that these productions “met the eligibility criteria.” This means that shows that are—by all outward appearances—produced by non-profits, are apparently eligible (and not just for an extension period). Unless they happen at the Vivian Beaumont. Though I suppose those could oddly be eligible as Level Two, meaning with a $350,000 maximum.

I received a list of everyone who has received the credit as of a couple of weeks ago.

The following shows received the maximum $3 million allocation: & Juliet, Aladdin, Back to the Future, Bad Cinderella, Beetlejuice, The Book of Mormon, Chicago, Come From Away, Company, David Byrne’s American Utopia, Dear Evan Hansen, Funny Girl, Girl From The North Country, The Great Gatsby, Hadestown, Harmony, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Hell’s Kitchen, Here Lies Love, Into the Woods, Kimberly Akimbo, Leopoldstadt, The Lion King, Merrily We Roll Along, Moulin Rouge, Mr. Saturday Night, Mrs. Doubtfire, The Music Man, New York, New York, The Notebook, Once Upon A One More Time, The Outsiders, Parade, The Phantom of the Opera, Shucked, Six, Some Like It Hot, Spamalot, A Strange Loop, Sweeney Todd, TINA, Water for Elephants, The Who’s Tommy, Wicked, and The Wiz.

Here are the remainder of Broadway shows that have already received their credit in descending order of the amount they received: Almost Famous - $2,864,752, August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson - $2,824,745, Purlie Victorious - $2,699,224, Gutenberg! The Musical! - $2,677,016, Good Night, Oscar - $2,666,334, Ain’t Too Proud - $2,556,695, Waitress - $2,527,988, Macbeth - $2,468,842, POTUS - $2,410,358, Paradise Square - $2,409,003, To Kill A Mockingbird - $2,398,307, Life of Pi - $2,335,366, Death of a Salesman - $2,264,686, Days Of Wine And Roses - $2,248,387, A Doll’s House - $2,199,479, Jagged Little Pill - $2,161,741, Grey House - $2,157,302, The Lehman Trilogy - $2,091,142, Peter Pan Goes Wrong - $2,090,546, The Cottage - $2,035,549, Pictures From Home - $2,054,513, Plaza Suite - $2,000,887, A Christmas Carol - $1,935,378, The Minutes - $1,892,161, Take Me Out - $1,871,543, KPOP - $1,870,970, American Buffalo - $1,856,405, Fat Ham - $1,766,958, Appropriate - $1,720,089, The Kite Runner - $1,807,992, Ohio State Murders - $1,535,348, Prima Facie - $1,610,194, The Shark is Broken - $1,596,131, TopDog/UnderDog - $1,500,376, Ain’t No Mo’ - $1,488,747, Slave Play - $1,481,877, Freestyle Love Supreme - $1,430,675, Hangmen - $1,425,055, Thoughts of a Colored Man - $1,389,604, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window - $1,356,623, For Colored Girls - $1,295,650, Diana The Musical - $1,148,895, The Little Prince - $1,146,568, Mother Play - $1,151,854, The Old Man & The Pool - $1,113,518, Is This A Room / Dana H - $1,095,570, Chicken & Biscuits - $1,043,843, Melissa Etheridge - My Window - $908,619, Pass Over - $886,873, Just For Us - $706,459, and Walking With Ghosts - $626,580. 

The off-Broadway shows that received the maximum $350,000 allocation are: Danny and the Deep Blue Sea, Dracula, A Comedy of Terrors, Emergence, N/A, Rock and Roll Man, Stalker, and White Rose Musical. Receiving less than those but performing in a Level Two facility were Breaking the Story at $301,891 and Swing State at $251,854.

There is an outlier in the list of awards that initially confused me—Notre Dame de Paris received $358,346, that is over the maximum for Level Two facilities, but it was at the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center, which doesn’t qualify as a Level One facility. But here is the thing, this award was for the 2022 mounting of the show, and, back in 2022, there was no Level One or Level Two or geographic limitation. All a show needed to be eligible—and I’m simplifying—was to be in a city theater whose gross was primarily driven by ticket sales and that had a seating capacity of at least 500. The Level One/Two dichotomy, and the geographic limitation, were not in effect until the 2024 fiscal year. This explains how Notre Dame de Paris received over $350,000 and, additionally, how The Old Man & The Pool, which was at the Vivian Beaumont but also began performances in 2022, received over $1.1 million.

One other note about The Old Man & The Pool—"stand-up comedy performances are not eligible” under the program, but The Old Man & The Pool and Just For Us, which one could argue are both in that vein, were granted awards. Similarly, “musical solo” performances are not eligible, but Melissa Etheridge - My Window, which I think of more as a musical memoir, was included. Which is all good with me. I’ve never understood the exclusion provision. I suspect it was intended to exclude non-theatrical venues, rather than types of shows, but instead “ballet, opera, musical solo, group, band or orchestra performances, or stand-up comedy performances” are excluded. So, technically, a revival of Rent at the Nederlander would be eligible, but a mounting of La bohème there would not be. It doesn’t make sense.

Now here are the estimated credits. There are more off-Broadway on this list because the credit was expanded to include off-Broadway years after it began.

Here are the shows estimated to receive the maximum $3 million: BOOP!, Buena Vista Social Club, Cabaret, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her, Gypsy, Heart of Rock and Roll, How To Dance in Ohio, Just In Time, Lempicka, Mamma Mia!, Maybe Happy Ending, Operation Mincemeat, Othello, Our Town, Real Women Have Curves, Redwood, Romeo and Juliet, SMASH, Stranger Things: The First Shadow, Suffs, Sunset Blvd, Swept Away, Tammy Faye and A Wonderful World.

Broadway shows expected to receive less than the maximum are An Enemy Of The People - $2,597,886, Good Night, and Good Luck - $2,568,158, Glengarry Glen Ross - $2,874,700, Once Upon a Mattress - $2,391,962, The Picture of Dorian Gray - $2,411,390, Purpose - $2,306,986, Left On Tenth - $2,238,013, Pirates! The Penzance Musical - $2,166,348, The Hills of California - $2,166,232, Patriots - $2,121,102, The Roommate - $2,048,115, The Last Five Years - $2,032,330, John Proctor is the Villain - $2,015,243, Illinoise - $2,040,628, Elf - $1,930,752, Oh, Mary! - $1,664,721, Call Me Izzy - $1,636,220, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends - $1,483,806, All In - $1,474,276, Stereophonic - $1,772,703, Cult of Love - $1,254,711, Job - $1,211,350, Eureka Day - $1,197,869, Mary Jane - $1,185,897, Prayer for the French Republic - $1,161,229, English - $1,029,877, and Yellow Face - $1,145,907. (I should note that some of these amounts surprise me—for example, on a surface level, I’m surprised that Stereophonic is estimated to receive less than The Roommate, but it is based on qualified running costs, and I haven’t dug into those for the relevant productions. Plus, these are estimated, so, as noted above, could change before issuance. Stereophonic extended multiple times, and the estimates are based on expected runs.) 

For off-Broadway shows, the maximum credit is expected to be given to: Angry Alan, The Big Gay Jamboree, The Counter, Dakar 2000, Drag the Musical, Duke & Roya, Dungeons & Dragons: The Twenty-Sided Tavern, Empire: The Musical, The Ghost of John McCain, Ginger Twinsies, Heathers: The Musical, Hold On To Me Darling, The Jonathan Larson Project, Joy The Musical, Liberation, Mind Mangler, Mindplay, Rolling Thunder, Syncing Ink, Teeth, That Parenting Musical, Vanya, Vladimir, and Walden. Those off-Broadway shows expected to receive less are: Kowalski - $342,682, Eurydice - $333,473, Lunar Eclipse - $315,178, We Had A World - $310,312, Creditors - $286,626, Sexual Misconduct of the Middle Classes - $284,182, Strategic Love Play - $277,257, someone spectacular - $243,571, Ava: The Secret - $218,228.

In addition to the above, there are applications that have been received, but not reviewed. The plan is for Empire State Development to stop accepting applications temporarily—shows with their first paid performance after September 15 can currently not apply—and then audit the program to see how much money is left and whether they can reopen the program again before the 2027 fiscal year.

HOW THIS WAS UNEXPECTED

One of the things that surprised me last month, when news spread that the allowable credit pool was nearly gone, was how caught off guard the Broadway League and its members were. Surely, someone must have been keeping track of the amount of credits expected for Broadway shows at least, I thought. An extra $100 million, bringing the pool of available funds from $300 million to $400 million, had just been approved as part of the Fiscal Year 2026 budget a few months prior. There had to be some examination then, I assumed. But here we were, with an industry completely stunned. All the incoming shows were factoring the credit into their tables and offering papers. One General Manager described it to me as a “catastrophe.”  

Jeff T. Daniel, president of the Shubert Organization and chair of the League’s Government Affairs Committee, explained that the League had no internal mechanism to keep track of the credit, so it was relying on a FOIL request. The League made its last FOIL request in December 2024 and received the information in March 2025. They did not put in a request after the spring season and their request did not cover pending applications.

“The lesson we learned is, and with all respect to ESD and the state, with a FOIL request, you need to be incredibly almost pressing on how you ask questions because they’re not going to elaborate,” Daniel said. “They’re not going to say, ‘Hey Jeff, you guys really meant this, right?’ Or ‘By the way, don’t you want to look forward and ask us to disclose the list of shows that we have and haven’t approved yet?’”

Daniel does not view it as the League’s place to ask for members’ financial information.

“You know, every year, what, 40, 43 shows open, they’re all individual LLCs, different investors, and they all chart their own course financially. So the League’s role, thus far hasn’t been ‘Show me your books,’” he said.

While there are many fewer general managers than there are shows, and while reporting this information would not require a wholesale disclosure of non-public information (after all, the necessary information can be obtained by FOIL request), Daniel still did not have my faith that people might agree to share this information for the greater good.

“I think you may be underestimating a general manager or producer’s [lack of] desire to share information with competitors,” he said to me. “We’re a little cautious of that. Although when it’s in their best interest, it’s the best time to ask for information, as you may guess. But, at the same time, you have shows that are competing for opening dates and awards and revenue. Did we think about [asking members]? We thought about it every time that we needed to determine a particular data point to deal with the State or the Governor’s office. But we didn’t do it to keep track of what we believe the State’s job was to keep track of, the funds they were expending.”

THE LEAGUE’S NEW ASK

The League is urging the Governor’s office to renew the tax credit in the Governor’s budget for the 2027 fiscal year. By law, the deadline for the New York State Governor to submit the Executive Budget is mid-January (technically the second Tuesday after the Legislature’s annual meeting). The Legislature and the Governor debate and revise the budget and the entire thing is supposed to be approved in April. So the runway isn’t that long.

“Our League ask is straightforward,” Daniel said. “Three years of funding and at $100 million per year and then a calculation to determine what funds are needed to backfill retroactively this season from the amount that would have been approved and funded versus the amount that was approved and funded based on existing cash. We’re looking past the season three years, but also taking care of the shows that were not able to get the credit this season.”

Shows opening before the new budget is approved are being urged to comply with all the other requirements of the law—offering a specific number (based on theater size and run length) of low-or no-cost tickets to low income New Yorkers, participation in a “diversity and arts job training program”—so that if the “backfill” is approved, they will otherwise meet the requirements.

Before this last budget, State Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal, with League backing, proposed $500 million additional and a five-year extension. What was passed was two years and $100 million. This new request is essentially a redo of the previous one, complete with “backfill” to make up for it not passing this year.

This attempt will have one meaningful change though. Daniel said the League is set to propose a cleaner payback methodology. In theory, hit shows were expected to pay an amount monthly into the New York State Council on the Arts Cultural Program Fund up to 50% of the total credit they received. But this only needs to happen if the production earns ongoing revenue prospectively after the end of the credit period that is over 200% of its ongoing production costs. In other words, a production needs to reach the $3 million cap, receive that credit, and then keep running at over 200% its operating costs and only then does it need to start paying back. This hasn’t happened—no show has paid back anything.

“The calculation that we came up with that we thought would work didn’t really [because it] didn’t include a 30% increase in our costs,” Daniel said of the payback formula, which the League had a hand in crafting. “That made that number almost unattainable. We had a couple of shows early on that hit that number, but they were headed towards closing anyway and hadn’t received the credit… Frankly, we were I think we were too conservative. We did not see the increase in cost coming that really unwound the formula.”

The League therefore previously proposed this last year, what Daniel referred to as “very streamlined, easy paybacks.” These did not make it into the law. The League’s proposal, which was in the Hoylman-Sigal bill, did not do away with the formula dependent on 200% of weekly operating costs, but added a way to get $500,000 back to the State without that. It added that if a show had run over 2 years, it had to start paying back at a rate of $2,500 for each paid performance week (assuming a regular performance week), up to $500,000. Meaning, if a show ran for almost 6 years but never reached the 200% guideline, that show would have paid back $500,000.

This year, Daniel said they are taking a “stronger run” at “straightforward repayment mechanism that just will make people repay when they’re successful.”

He did not provide the formula that would be utilized to determine success, but he said it would not be “complicated” because the “goal is to keep it simple, stupid.”

Even though Daniel’s quotes spoke of “repayment,” in the League’s ideal world, instead of an actual repayment, a successful show would simply never receive the full credit to begin with. In other words, because it takes so long for the credit to be processed (the shortest time between application and award has been just shy of 11 months and the average time is around 1 year, 5 months), the success of the show might be able to be determined before the credit processing is complete and a successful show would simply receive a credit of, at maximum, $1.5 million.

There is a little murkiness in how this would work if the credit is achieved and could be issued before recoupment. There are, after all, shows that might reach the $3 million cap, and have it be approved for issuance, before recoupment. For example, & Juliet applied for its tax credit in October 2022 and was issued it in February 2024; the musical’s producers did not announce recoupment until June 2024. And a show isn’t truly a financial success until at least recoupment. (It should also be noted that some producers include the credit amount when publicly announcing recoupment, which is a weird reality that makes recoupment announcements post-Covid not comparable to announcements pre-Covid.) I sought clarification on how repayment would work in this situation but did not receive it despite multiple requests.

I asked Daniel about whether the League would be amendable to any other revisions to the financial portion of the award, whether it be a full payback or other tweak. For example, a New York State Senate Bill proposed excluding production companies that are publicly traded—or largely owned by a publicly traded company (5% or more beneficial ownership)—from eligibility. The League is not currently on board with this or any other revision to the financial portion of the credit besides the repayment revision.

“I don’t think that we should exclude anyone who wants to invest money in New York City at this high of a risk level with this high of a return on investment,” Daniel said. “If we fix the payback mechanism and a public company or mom and pop wants to take this risk and drive jobs and drive visitation to New York City, New York State should be open to that.”

WHY THE TAX CREDIT REMAINS IMPORTANT

There has been a lot of talk about whether this credit is still needed. Broadway, after all, had its highest grossing year. But that figure doesn’t take into account the increases in production costs. Nor does it exclude star-driven outliers. There are still a lot of investors getting creamed out there.

Additionally, though industry folks rarely talk publicly about the credit mattering more for some shows than others, it does. If you are launching a nearly $30 million musical, the chances the tax credit is going to be a complete game changer for an investor aren’t great. If you are launching Oedipus on Broadway with a $6 million capitalization or Liberation with a $5 million capitalization that tax credit is going to have a more substantial impact. It’s going to mean more to investors. (Although Liberation’s Broadway credit should be reduced by the amount of its off-Broadway credit, assuming administration of the credit is kept consistent.)  

Fans of new plays, especially those without big name stars, should be writing to the Governor’s office to ask her to renew this credit. Because not only are attendance numbers still down, but the composition of the audience is changing. Last season the audience was comprised of 33.3% locals (people who lived in New York City or the surrounding suburbs) and 66.7% tourists. International visitors attending Broadway were at their highest percentage in 10 years, comprising 21.3% of the audience. Why does this matter? After all, money is money. But the audience that supports new plays is not an international tourist audience, it’s mostly a local audience. The numbers have consistently shown that—tourists are more likely to go to musicals, and this differential is especially pronounced among international tourists.

Now, it’s true that plays usually present much less risk in terms of overall monetary loss per production, but, still, I can tell you from speaking to investors, that the credit matters to them a lot when it comes to plays.

When legislators are anti-tax credit, they often cite a 2023 study by the consulting company PFM which found that, at that time, the New York City Musical and Theatrical Production Tax Credit produced a return of 23 cents for every dollar of taxpayer dollars spent. However, in that same analysis document, PFM noted that “[t]here are significant quantifiable benefits that cannot be readily captured by” this number, such as tourism appeal and impact on area businesses. Therefore, the team found this credit to have “at least the expectation of a positive return on investment.” In other words, when you consider the institution that is Broadway, and its impact on the city, the credit was likely worth it to the state. And that’s without even considering the other benefits of the program, such as tickets to low-income New Yorkers.

It is bad for the state if Broadway falters. Broadway will falter if investment dries up. It is as simple as that. (I’m not sure how the “backfill” idea is in keeping with the idea that the credit is designed to stimulate investment, as that investment will have already occurred, but I also see the argument that folks who decided to invest in shows opening later in the fall were expecting the credit, and they may not invest in the future if they feel they were shafted this go round.)

“The old adage ‘Well, if we don’t give you the credit, where are you going to go?’ doesn’t work anymore,” Daniel said. “One, it was somewhat insulting. But the other part is we have a robust credit in the UK. And they already had a cost structure that could be about 30% of our cost structure. Adding the credit over there that’s robust, quickly paid, and easy to administer has not been helpful to us. We need to keep productions originating in New York, period.”

Indeed, already I get a frightening amount of investor materials for very American-sounding shows planning on launching in the UK. Some of you may think: “Well, that’s fine, if they are good they’ll come to New York eventually.” There are a lot of problems with that way of thinking, too many to list here, but let’s just say: a world in which everything goes to the West End first is bad for Broadway.  

Like New York’s tax credit, the UK’s Theatre Tax Relief program was originally temporary, but, unlike New York’s credit, UK Theatre Tax Relief became permanent in April of this year. The UK tax credit offers relief of 40% of qualified costs for non-touring productions and 45% for touring productions. (In the UK this can result in either a reduction in a production company’s tax bill or as a cash repayment if the production is not profit-making.) In other words, the West End already had lower production costs than Broadway and then the government further sweetened the pot.

I wish we didn’t still need this tax credit. And I do believe successful shows should pay it back or not receive it—I’d personally go beyond the League’s 50% proposal even. But, with attendance still not back to where it was, and a bunch of other issues and unknowns making investors feel jittery, the tax credit remains important to Broadway’s continued success.

Governor Hochul is in an election year, so the public’s appetite for this credit may very well play into her decisions in this matter. Make your voice heard.