What's The Future of New York? What's on the other side of COVID

Alex Kulak2
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joined:9/11/16
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It's super worrying reading the posts about how long Broadway will be closed, with predictions going into the end of 2020. What it makes me think about is what's on the other side of this? Even when the CDC and the WHO says its safe to be in groups again, how many people are going to want to vacation to the most populous city in the country? According to the New York Times, after 9/11, the number of international tourists didn't reach pre-2001 levels again until 2006. How long is it going to be until people feel safe again in groups that big?

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BroadwayRox3588
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joined:10/5/16
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After this is all over, we take all 500 (by that time) of the threads about COVID-19, and use them to write an epic musical that will rival Hamilton. It will open in 2023 at the Winter Garden Theatre, and run there for longer than Cats.

Updated On: 3/19/20 at 02:41 AM
UncleCharlie
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joined:6/26/16
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My prediction is that by the fall of 2021, when there is officially no longer any further danger of coronavirus, the cities of New York, Boston and Philadelphia will be merged into one jurisdiction called New Bostadelphia by the surviving 9,300 people within those cities. There will still be a Broadway theater district but only one theater and only one show will be performed, IN TRANSIT which becomes a smash hit due to the overwhelming nostalgia for the New York City subways which no longer exist. During November and December, it will however be performed in repertory with HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. Thankfully, the BroadwayWorld chat boards will still exist and there will still be 15-20 "What Should I See?" threads each week.
FindingNamo
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joined:7/22/03
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Will there be any show curtains?

But to be serious, nobody alive has been through this before and very few people who know about the great epidemics of history are in charge anymore. In NYC, the hospital system is in grave danger of collapsing under the Covid stress, according to Rachel Maddow's show, the Lombardy area in Northern Italy has announced that it will no longer be able to accept new patients. Their trajectory looks very similar to NYC's, and right now, New York is ten days behind them on the models.

Thank god Governor Cuomo is aware of what needs to be done as far as emergency, designated Civid-only hospital spaces go.  (The Javits Center has been proposed as a potential site.) But he's not a miracle worker and can not make the dangerously low supply of deep nasal swabs needed to perform the necessary tests appear out of thin air. He also can not make the necessary protective gear to save the lives of the frontline healthcare workers who will be called upon to make sacrifices much more hazardous and direct that most first responders encounter.  And it will be every hour of every day.

So, other than the six most important things: Tests, tests and more tests; and professional protective equipment, professional protective equipment, and more professional protective equipment, we also have no coordinated federal response because when people who hate government are put in positions of power, a rube like Donald Josephine Trump becomes a self-fulfilling doomsday prophecy.

We don't know what our whole world is going to look like after this is mostly under control. We have no idea what institutions will survive, or how they will need to alter in order to start up again. There will always be artists, theatrical and non. Whether or not any of the current crop of shows ever plays again, we just won't know until we get there and unfortunately, that's going to be a long way away.

It is lovely that performers are sharing their gifts online.  May we always have that kind of access, which means, may we always have electricity and internet providers because if I can't watch shtuff like last night's Dropkick Murphys live stream or the freebies on Broadway HD I will be just, losing my mind. Losing my mind.

Can you hear me now? Twitter: @NamoInExile
AlanB3
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Forgive my organizational development consultant take here, but a lot of human mindset is to think about when will it "get back to the way it was?"

Major crises are a reset. They disrupt the previous linear path.

This is a potential opportunity, with the right leadership and support, to create something different and better rather than merely rebuild things exactly as they were before.

We don't get chances like their very often ... when things have been disrupted so greatly that dramatic change and innovative ideas might be met with less resistance.

Or if people still see value in "the way things were" moving forward, to recreate and rebuild the best version of the past.
JennH
Broadway Star
joined:11/14/13
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^^What Alan said. This, friends, is what we call a social upheaval/reset. The thing my generation and below has only read about in history textbooks. War, economic collapse, and yes pandemics. And of course many times, most of the time really, these aren't mutually exclusive as we now have daily proof of. I knew in my gut for a long time that something was coming, I read lots of news...heck even most of us were thinking Civil War 2.0 or WWIII (which sadly is still possible), but color me shocked at it being a pandemic. 

BWAY Baby2
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No matter what- if Hugh Jackman performs in The Music Man - and the all-clear is given but the medical community- he will be majorly responsible for bringing people back to BWAY. 

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sabrelady
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I'm not sure I can agree w that rosie outlook. Hugh Jackman's fine but if u have to catch up on your mortgage payments, credit cards ( which a lot of folks r going to be forced to live on if there is a 3+ months w little or no income) etc Broadway entertainment is gonna b pretty low  on the list.

I agree that this is a tipping point there is going to be a a real paradigm shift in  a lot of what goes on but in what direction? Too soon to tell. 

I just got back to Toronto from Florida and the Spring Breakers r gonna have a LOT to answer for as far as the spread of COVID 19.  Day 12 now of my self isolation.

Stay well stay healthy

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yankeefan7
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NYC is the greatest city in the world and it will survive and be even stronger, I have faith in the people of NY to rally. This may take a little longer than we all would like but keep the faith. You are all in this together so hang in there !!

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OlBlueEyes
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I would be cautious when listening to all the predictions of how this pandemic will play out. Although all the precautions we are taking are necessary, we just don't know much. I've read in several places that lab tests have backed the weakening of the spread of the virus in the warmer weather. This is plausible since this virus resembles other cold and flu viruses that are seasonal. No one wants to suggest the slowdown as it might slow down all the efforts going on now preparing for the worst.

Many don't want to hear of any comparison to the seasonal viruses, but the only principal difference in the new virus is that no one in the world has any resistance to this virus which is new to our species. Hench its runaway spread in places. According to the CDC, thus far in the season we have had at least 22,000 deaths from seasonal flu.

It they are telling the truth, the Chinese have halted the spread of the virus and has been reporting only twelve or fewer new cases for almost a week. South Korea, the first nation after China to show large numbers of infected, has held its deaths to below 100. The Italian experience, with its thousands of deaths, is alarming, but they have been reporting that the average age of the deceased is 81 years old. Italy leads the world, or is a close second or third, in countries with the highest percentage of the population that is over 60 years.

If the viral infections in the United States continue to spread so quickly, then our medical facilities may be overwhelmed. We are not sure that this will be the case, but we must prepare for the worst.

ZeroMustTell
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I see dozens of threads like this; People wanting to speculate about the future, I feeling it gives them some sort of control. Truth is, nobody knows anything.
JennH
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joined:11/14/13
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OlBlueEyes said: "I would be cautious when listening to all the predictions of how this pandemic will play out. Although all the precautions we are taking are necessary, we just don't know much. I've read in several places that lab tests have backed the weakening of the spread of the virus in the warmer weather. This is plausible since this virus resembles other cold and flu viruses that are seasonal. No one wants to suggest the slowdown as it might slow down all the efforts going on now preparing for the worst.

Many don't want to hear of any comparison to the seasonal viruses, but the only principal difference in the new virus is that no one in the world has any resistance to this virus which is new to our species. Hench its runaway spread in places. According to the CDC, thus far in the season we have had at least 22,000 deaths from seasonal flu.

It they are telling the truth, the Chinese have halted the spread of the virus and has been reporting only twelve or fewer new cases for almost a week. South Korea, the first nation after China to show large numbers of infected, has held its deaths to below 100. The Italian experience, with its thousands of deaths,is alarming, but they have been reporting that the average age of the deceased is 81 years old. Italy leads the world, or is a close second or third, in countries with the highest percentage of the population that is over 60 years.

If the viral infections in the United States continue to spread so quickly, then our medical facilities may be overwhelmed. We are not sure that this will be the case, but we must prepare for the worst.
"

Supposedly the info that's it's not resistant to heat in warmer weather, is untrue as it's already spread to countries known for heat. I need to look it up again...but dear lordt, I want this to be true so bad.

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Robbie2
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ZeroMustTell said: "I see dozens of threads like this; People wanting to speculate about the future, I feeling it gives them some sort of control. Truth is, nobody knows anything."

 

It's only been a week let's see where things are at the end of March -better yet by the end of April will give a better indication on the the future of BWAY!?

"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new." Sunday in the Park with George
Updated On: 3/19/20 at 01:51 PM
Fosse76
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joined:3/21/05
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OlBlueEyes said: "I would be cautious when listening to all the predictions of how this pandemic will play out. Although all the precautions we are taking are necessary, we just don't know much. I've read in several places that lab tests have backed the weakening of the spread of the virus in the warmer weather. This is plausible since this virus resembles other cold and flu viruses that are seasonal. No one wants to suggest the slowdown as it might slow down all the efforts going on now preparing for the worst."

According to the World Health Organization, that is absolutely not true.

"From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather. Regardless of climate, adopt protective measures if you live in, or travel to an area reporting COVID-19."

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

"Many don't want to hear of any comparison to the seasonal viruses, but the only principal difference in the new virus is that no one in the world has any resistance to this virus which is new to our species. Hench its runaway spread in places. According to the CDC, thus far in the season we have had at least 22,000 deaths from seasonal flu."

That's pretty misleading. First, it trivializes people dying. Second, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the fatality rates of COVID-19. It has killed 3.5% of the infected population, whereas the flu kills 0.1% of of those infected. Third, each COVID-19 sufferer likely infects 2-3 people, which is twice the rate of those with the flu.

"It they are telling the truth, the Chinese have halted the spread of the virus and has been reporting only twelve or fewer new cases for almost a week. South Korea, the first nation after China to show large numbers of infected, has held its deaths to below 100."

China took measures to halt the spread by implementing rapid testing of any suspected cases of COVID-19 and immediately quarantining anyone who tested positive, as well as anyone who was in contact with them. It had little to do with any travel restrictions or lockdowns. South Korea's rate of testing is quite high. And those that have been infected were on the younger side, unsurprising since only 18% of the population is over 60. 

"The Italian experience, with its thousands of deaths,is alarming, but they have been reporting that the average age of the deceased is 81 years old. Italy leads the world, or is a close second or third, in countries with the highest percentage of the population that is over 60 years."

Once again, that sounds like you are trivializing those who have died. 

"If the viral infections in the United States continue to spread so quickly, then our medical facilities may be overwhelmed. We are not sure that this will be the case, but we must prepare for the worst."

It's a major concern, which can lead to increase in the fatality rate.

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Wick3
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It also depends when a COVID-19 vaccine can be developed, tested, and become available to the masses. 

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MCW1227
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I look at this the way I look at other major disasters that haven befallen us in the 21st century.  We are only 20 years in and have had some of the largest natural and economic downfalls in history.  

I agree that this is an opportunity to look at our structure as a society and try it remap the course.  I call it “nature’s cleansing”.  Many young people have not been taught to care for each other, young professionals are too busy making money to prioritize time with family and the elderly are living way too long and kept alive with way too many meds that are keeping the pharm companies rolling in dough.  

The results of all this have tremendous impact on society.  We have compromised the environment and climate, widened economic inequity and shown each other we Don’t give a crap about our fellow man, only ourselves.  

Broadway will return stronger than ever because, just like sports, it offers an escape from  our normal lives and it makes lots of money for people who already have lots of money.  The Arts will always be important in our lives.  But hopefully, things will never return to what they were before Corona and maybe they shouldn’t.

Be Kind
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darquegk
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If it all goes south in a big way, we can adopt the African tradition of griots, traveling singer-storytellers with a repertoire of songs and tales and epics.

 

"Hey, I just got word that a griot from New York City came to the encampment last night." "What's her rep?" "Beauty and the Beast, Guys and Dolls and two Shakespeares." "Oh, thank god, the griot we got six months ago only knew Rocky Horror and a few episodes of South Park."

JennH
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^^^^ Ok, you're correct on many points, but some needing refuting. But first, here's an interesting piece on how this mess will change things, most good, some I question, but I digress. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

The first refute. Young people/professionals are too busy to prioritize time with family and friends/haven't been taught to care for eachother? Wow...you completely misunderstand the policies and social paradigm that got us to that point in the first place. When pure "bootstrap capitalism" reigns supreme, that's what you get. This mess is showing the MAJOR flaws in our system and that American "work hard at all costs" mentality. We young professionals have NO issue making time for family and friends...if we actually had that time. We've had to move to where work is, because we were taught "bootstraps at all costs!". So we did. And then the older generation complains about us not caring, or moving too far away, working too much, 'why can't you come home', etc....so which is it? We came into the workforce at the worst economic time in our lives, with constant fear of layoffs and firings for stupid reasons at every turn, from a service based economy that pays scraps, let alone includes benefits, with the continuous turn into a gig economy that turns in even LESS stability for us all.  Couldn't possibly because of the U.S. workhorse culture, could it?  Or the fact that decent paying work with benefits that allowed for a decent work/life balance are gone because of something that happened when millennials were 5 years old or less? Or heck, not even born yet? The workhorse culture has allowed the trampling of the "little guy" for too long, with policies in place to prove that point. 

Next point, about the elderly....that's pretty morbid, don't you think? You do make an excellent point about pharma, but the way you worded that makes it seems like you want them to die off. While generational turnover is a thing, I still hesitate to use wording like that. 

EDIT-my response is to MCW1227, btw. 

Updated On: 3/20/20 at 10:46 AM
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MCW1227
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To JennH:  about the elderly....that's pretty morbid, don't you think? You do make an excellent point about pharma, but the way you worded that makes it seems like you want them to die off. While generational turnover is a thing, I still hesitate to use wording like that. 

I wasn’t implying people should just die off at all.  My point was that they should be allowed to go with dignity not pump them full of meds so they can sit like zombies in a nursing home, who coincidently, is making tons of money off that lack of dignity.  It is the natural order of things for people to be born and to die.  It’s not natural to keep people alive who have no quality of life. Let them go in peace and meet their maker with respect. 

You make valid points but I think you missed the point I was trying to get.  That being that we as a society have allowed the culture and actually contributed to it.  If corporations are demanding these hours away from family and friends then that 25-45 age group has accommodated it.  The corporate executives and their bonuses are on the backs of the workers.  Government has also accommodated big business and we vote these people in.  On Election Day, the young people who yell about social change don’t show up to vote or work for their candidates  We are all contributors to the way things have evolved.  
I have 2 daughters living the corporate life so I feel I know a little about it. The kids are suffering because they have no structure or guidance from their parents who are putting in ridiculous hours 5-6 days a week.
if companies can’t find quality workers they must adjust their strategies.  People who have families also have to make sacrifices, maybe a lesser paying job with flexible hours or 1 parent working part time. Maybe scale down possessions and vacations. I’m hoping the working remotely occurring now, including for myself, becomes part of our culture so that it creates a better society. 
Im hoping that this virus goes away quickly but allows people to reflect on their lives and their values, including myself. Maybe this will bring the change we need.  Let’s hope that is the future of not only NYC but the entire country.
stay well!

 

Be Kind
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Mr. Wormwood
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In my opinion, anyone who thinks Broadway won't be able to come back from this is just as wrong as anyone who still thinks Broadway is coming back on April 13. 

Yes, this will be with us for awhile and yes, there will be repercussions even when the pandemic eases. But I think from policies to generosity from those who are able to the need to be together, things like Broadway (and sports) will be leading the charge just as they did after 9/11

FindingNamo
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We shouldn't buy into the "nobody knows" argument because epidemiologists DO know. We are in the critical time and we know what had to start last week: TESTING and also TESTING and more TESTING. And since that hasn't happened, what we need now is protective gear for healthcare front-liners. And there isn't any. And the Trump administration is lying when they say there are plenty of tests and masks available now. I mean... citizens are being requested to make masks for the healthcare workers treating Covid patients.

It's not going well.  There will always be theater because people need to share their stories. But somebody has to flatly state that this is going to be a drawn out horrifying affair. After that, I'll be happy to see a Punch n Judy show in a park. If I survive.

Can you hear me now? Twitter: @NamoInExile
JennH
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^^^ I still have many issues with your bullet points. A socioeconomic system has to allow for those "values" as you put it, to begin with. When work is hard enough to come by, let alone decent paying work, it's a choice between "values" and a place to sleep and food in the fridge. So we get lambasted for both "pulling ourselves up by the bootstraps" and "not having good ol' family values"...so again, which is it? You can't lambast us for both, it's contradictory. These kinds of choices didn't used to mean the difference between no job/no food and and "family values". 

I do agree this mess will bring about much needed change, it's revealed almost every flaw in the way the U.S. works, our shoddy healthcare system, the near lack of any REAL safety nets, and so much more. It's sad that it takes a crisis to get these changes made, but sadly this virus will not go away quickly. This is fact. We're in for quite a roller coaster. 

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MCW1227
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What does pulling yourself up by bootstraps mean and who says that?

Be Kind
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PatrickDC
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Maybe social distancing becomes a permanent thing and theaters are required by law to make bigger seats with more leg and elbow room.

I’m always the eternal optimist at times like these. What's The Future of New York? What's on the other side of COVID
AlanB3
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MCW1227 said: "What does pulling yourself up by bootstraps mean and who says that?"



You can Google it to find more about its origin and history, but its an older expression used to indicate or suggest people get by on their own. The meaning is along the lines of took care of myself, self-made, et al. The irony is that you physically cannot pull yourself up by your bootstraps.