Adam Driver - Lead Actor

[Luke Mosseau]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 9:51am

Saw Adam Driver the other night in Burn This and he was mesmerizing. He commanded the stage. He's also gotten similar buzz from what I've seen on social media. Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor? He's got tough competition in Jeff Daniels, Bryan Cranston etc...

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 10:08am

The competition in Best Actor this year is INSANE, so I don't think he'd win unless he gets absolute love-letters from the critics. There will be worthy performances that don't even get nominated.

Jeff Daniels
Bryan Cranston
Paddy Considine
Nathan Lane
Tracy Letts
John Lithgow
Michael Urie
Ethan Hawke
Jeremy Pope
Johnny Lee Miller
Lucas Hedges
Daniel Radcliffe
Stephen Pasquale
Jim Parsons
Paul Dano

(probably forgetting a few, too)

Updated On: 3/28/19 at 10:08 AM

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 10:09am

I fear Michael Urie will be forgotten and it breaks my heart. 

[Kimbo]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 10:59am

IdinaBellFoster said: "I fear Michael Urie will be forgotten and it breaks my heart."

Urie will almost certainly not be nominated. 

In a year with thus many performances, any that are not running will be at a disadvantage. For that reason, I even think Paddy Considine is now slightly more of a long-shot, having left the production nearly 5 months before the awards. 

If I had to guess right now I’d say Cranston, Daniels, Driver, Lane, and PROBABLY Considine... (though you’ve forgotten Bertie Carvel, the true lead of “Ink”, despite winning supporting actor at the Oliviers).

I could revise that opinion further if prior Tony winners Tracy Letts or John Lithgow wind up getting sensational reviews. (Or if perennial Tony darling Lane surprisingly gets bad ones). But Pope, Urie, and the always-worthy (and never-nominated) Parsons will likely all be also-rans this year. 

[haterobics]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 11:20am

Luke Mosseau said: "Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor?"

If he's nominated? 20 percent.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 11:30am

haterobics said: "Luke Mosseau said: "Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor?"

If he's nominated? 20 percent."

Incorrect.  It's be 20% only if they were picking the winner out of a hat.  Would you say that HAMILTON only stood a 20% chance of winning Best Musical because it was 1 of 5 nominated shows?

 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 11:43am

JSquared2 said: "haterobics said: "Luke Mosseau said: "Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor?"

If he's nominated? 20 percent."

Incorrect. It's be 20% only if they were picking the winner out of a hat. Would you say that HAMILTON only stood a 20% chance of winning Best Musical because it was 1 of 5 nominated shows?

Of course, you are right re your Hamilton analogy.   The difference, of course, was that it was a juggernaut.  No matter what reviews Driver gets, he can never be a juggernaut, because his competition already includes at least two performances that would be juggernauts in most seasons.  You add the likes of the other actors / performances and some of the reviews that they already received, not to mention the ones to come, and Haterobics is much more accurate than your assessment.

 

[haterobics]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 11:55am

JSquared2 said: "Incorrect. It's be 20% only if they were picking the winner out of a hat. Would you say that HAMILTON only stood a 20% chance of winning Best Musical because it was 1 of 5 nominated shows?"

Twenty percent seems accurate until we know who the other four people are... how could he have higher than that against four unknown parties?

If the suggestion was who would win if it were Driver, Cranston, Daniels, Lane, and Hawke, then sure, we could further try to interpret who might be more of a favorite amongst Tony voters, but without that, not sure how one might increase his odds amid unknown quantities.

I think a fairer point might be that Hamilton was huge, so would featured go to Diggs, Odom, or Groff? All three? Who would be favored amongst them? It seems easier to rank shows than performances, and then try to factor in Tony voting whimsy on top of that...

Updated On: 3/28/19 at 11:55 AM

[Fordham2015]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:14pm

Kimbo said: "IdinaBellFoster said: "I fear Michael Urie will be forgotten and it breaks my heart."

Urie will almost certainly not be nominated.

In a year with thus many performances, any that are not running will be at a disadvantage. For that reason, I even think Paddy Considine is now slightly more of a long-shot, having left the production nearly 5 months before the awards.

If I had to guess right now I’d say Cranston, Daniels, Driver, Lane, and PROBABLY Considine... (though you’ve forgotten Bertie Carvel, the true lead of “Ink”, despite winning supporting actor at the Oliviers).

I could revise that opinion further if prior Tony winners Tracy Letts or John Lithgow wind up getting sensational reviews. (Or if perennial Tony darling Lane surprisingly gets bad ones). But Pope, Urie, and the always-worthy (and never-nominated) Parsons will likely all be also-rans this year."

Having seen both Hillary and Gary, I would definitely put Lithgow in over Lane- his verbal fireworks with Metcalf are incredible and very funny. I sour on Gary the farther I get from it- the set and dance number are great, but Lane and Nielsen are working with some pretty thin material.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:29pm

Kimbo said: "Or if perennial Tony darling Lane surprisingly gets bad ones".

I'd hardly say Lane is a sure thing or even that he's a perennial Tony darling. He went 12 years without a nomination between The Producers and The Nance even though he appeared on Broadway many times between them. That's not to say he won't be nominated, but they don't just hand him a nomination every time he's on Broadway, so with competition as tough as this year, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him left out.

 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:39pm

Not that I don't love quality performances by celebrity juggernauts, but man wouldn't it be something spectacular if somehow Pope and Urie both got in! Their performances would certainly warrant it. 

My dream world would be Pope, Urie, Cranston, Considine, and Lithgow, though I know that won't happen. 

Hell, I thought Bobby Cannivale and Daniel Radcliffe were both flawless in Lifespan of a Fact! I wish this wasn't such a crowded year - too many really fantastic performances are going to go unrecognized. 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:50pm

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the producers try to petition Lithgow into Featured (his role is significantly smaller than Metcalf's), especially because Featured Actor in a Play isn't a particularly strong category this year.

[JayElle]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 1:10pm

Kimbo wrote in part: "In a year with thus many performances, any that are not running will be at a disadvantage. For that reason, I even think Paddy Considine is now slightly more of a long-shot, having left the production nearly 5 months before the awards.
 

Staff and cast members at theater told me the equity rules only permitted the  Irish/Brit cast  to stay for 6 months so they had to leave to be replaced w/an American cast. Only 3 remained and one will leave in April. (Maggie Far Away played by Fionnula Flanagan).  I don't know if they had the option to join Equity.

 

[220Basswood]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 2:47pm

I will be surprised if Stephen Pasquale  is nominated since he didn't perform in many of the show's dates.  What about people from the cast of Ink?  Does anyone think it will be nominated?  Bryan Cranston won the British version of the Tony.  Does anyone think he is a lock for winning the Tony in June?

SomethingPeculiar said: "The competition in Best Actor this year is INSANE, so I don't think he'd win unless he gets absolute love-letters from the critics.There will be worthy performances that don't even get nominated.

Jeff Daniels
Bryan Cranston
Paddy Considine
Nathan Lane
Tracy Letts
John Lithgow
Michael Urie
Ethan Hawke
Jeremy Pope
Johnny Lee Miller
Lucas Hedges
Daniel Radcliffe
Stephen Pasquale
Jim Parsons
Paul Dano

(probably forgetting a few, too)"

 

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 3:07pm

Just like last year’s Lead Actress in a Musical, there are too many hotly contested nominees here and I wouldn’t be surprised if a sixth nomination slot opened up

[n2nbaby]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 3:30pm

I would be shocked is Pasquale was nominated. I thought he gave a spectacularly one note performance.

Updated On: 3/28/19 at 03:30 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 7:27pm

At this point, I have no idea which five will end up making the final lineup. If any acting category could use a tie this year to warrant an additional nomination, this would have to be it.

I’d say Bryan Cranston and Jeff Daniels are both locks. Interestingly enough, they’re both Emmy winners taking on Oscar-winning characters. Early reports for Burn This have been strong for Adam Driver’s performance, same for John Lithgow’s in Hillary & Clinton. Paddy Considine may no longer be in The Ferryman, though he could still remembered based on how strong of a contender it is for Best Play. If Lucas Hedges gets in, that could be a sign of how strong The Waverly Gallery is for Best Play Revival. While I do have Nathan Lane getting in based on early reports for Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus, I wonder if given all the contenders there are this season, that the nominating committee might just snub him like they did with Audra McDonald in Shuffle Along. Jeremy Pope could be helped by his presence this season not only with Choir Boy, but he’s also now in Ain’t Too Proud. We’ve seen that kind of visibility factor help Christian Borle, Jefferson Mays, and Mary Beth Peil receive nominations two years ago. Given how Torch Song pretty much lost momentum with its premature closing, I would not be surprised to see Michael Urie forgotten.

Updated On: 3/28/19 at 07:27 PM

[The Other One]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 7:47pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "The competition in Best Actor this year is INSANE, so I don't think he'd win unless he gets absolute love-letters from the critics.There will be worthy performances that don't even get nominated.

Jeff Daniels
Bryan Cranston
Paddy Considine
Nathan Lane
Tracy Letts
John Lithgow
Michael Urie
Ethan Hawke
Jeremy Pope
Johnny Lee Miller
Lucas Hedges
Daniel Radcliffe
Stephen Pasquale
Jim Parsons
Paul Dano

(probably forgetting a few, too)"

Paul Dano will not be nominated, at least not as Best Actor.

 

[mikem]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 11:14pm

This will all change once the final reviews come in, but I would say the current rankings are

Locks for a nomination:  Cranston and Daniels

Most likely: Driver and Considine

Possible contenders for spot #5 (or #6):  Letts, Pope, Miller, Parsons

I don't think anyone else has a chance to move past these 8 contenders unless Letts and Miller are disappointing in their roles.

There is typically a prejudice towards currently running shows, but I think Lithgow will be moved down (or just overshadowed by Metcalf's larger role), and it sounds like Lane is predictably good but not doing something special that will get him a nomination against this tough competition.

I think The Ferryman's status as co-front-runner with Mockingbird for general acclaim will bring Considine a nomination.  Otherwise, I think Pope and Parsons are the only candidates from closed shows to have a chance to get nominated.