The Final Best Musical Spot

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 10:35pm

There seems to be agreement that Hadestown, Tootsie and The Prom will all get best musical nominations, but who do you think will get the fourth?

Potentials:

Be More Chill (mixed reviews, only appeals to young people)

Cher Show (some negative views, jukebox)

Ain’t Too Proud (no reviews yet but I’m guessing it will be mixed, jukebox)

Beetlejuice (no one knows how much they are going to change from DC, based on a movie)

I think it’s safe to say it’s going to be one of these but I have no idea which.

Note: I know some contest that The Prom isn’t a lock but I believe the general belief is that it will get in.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 11:12pm

Gettin' the Band Back Together. (sorry, I had to......)

At the moment, BMC has the edge but only because it's actually open. If critics genuinely like Ain't Too Proud and Beetlejuice, one of those could sneak ahead. Also helpful to think of what other nominations the shows will get, and working your way up from there.

Might be better to wait 10 days to have this convo: BJ starts previews 3/28 and ATP opens 3/21.

Updated On: 3/19/19 at 11:12 PM

[Kimbo]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 11:20pm

It’s just a hunch but my gut says 

1) Ain’t Too Proud (whatever the reviews, it’s a crowdpleaser, and far less memorable jukebox shows from Million Dollar Quartet to After Midnight to The Boy From Oz have all been nominated for Best Musical)

2) Beetlejuice (I have a feeling they’ve done a lot of work and that it will be at least somewhat better received here than in DC, which would be all it would take to get across the feeling that they “earned” a pat on the back and some more serious consideration)

3) Be More Chill. (it is what it is, and the score will probably get nominated - but the reviews were the same after the move because the show stayed the same, and while I say good for them if they wanted to operate under the principal of “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”, the honest truth is that every single grown-up I know thinks that the show is, to put it simply, broken.)

But if either of the 2 shows yet to open get even worse reviews than BMC, then maybe it can be more of a contender again.

 

Updated On: 3/19/19 at 11:20 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 11:55pm

Though I remember just as the eligibility period ended last year, the administration committee announced that if there are at least nine eligible candidates in any given category, then there would be five nominees. I don’t know if it’s going to be like that again this year yet.

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 11:57pm

It is too bad to hear that no one thinks the Cher show could be a contender. 1) the tony awards viewership would see a bump with a Cher appearance. 2) I really thought it was better than the prom.

I really hope they don’t just do one of those paid for 60 sec slot like they’ve done in the past. None of those to me left anything to be remembered.

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 12:13am

Theatrefanboy1 said: "It is too bad to hear that no one thinks the Cher show could be a contender. 1) the tony awards viewership would see a bump with a Cher appearance. 2) I really thought it was better than the prom.

I really hope they don’t just do one of those paid for 60 sec slot like they’ve done in the past. None of those to me left anything to be remembered."

 

I personally don't count The Cher Show out of this one as others do. I don't know, this last slot is really hard to pin down because everything fighting for the slot has drastically different pros and cons it's bringing to the table. Ain't Too Proud has some great performances but comes off as super safe both in it's story structure and it's design. It's been done before, it's been seen before but it's not bad it's just super safe. The Cher Show took some big risks and floundered because of it BUT at least it took the risk in the first place and has some exciting things going on to show for it as well as one of the front runners for Best Leading Actress killing it nightly. Be More Chill is a miss with the average Broadway audience but it's an original work and after the backlash against commercial works from LAST season, something original even if it's kind of juvenile might be rewards simply for being original. However I can already hear and see the rage all over social media is Be More Chill does get the slot because it will not win and the teenage angsty that will flood ever corner of the Broadway internet as well as the hate against whatever does win is not something I want to see again. Spongebob loosing to The Band's Visit was not pretty on my social media for like a MONTH.

And then again Beetlejuice could start previews in a few days and blows us all away with the changes made and end all this questioning. But is also hangs in that space like Spongebob did last season. It's a very commercial piece so unless it's something that is so good that it's glory just CAN'T be denied, it will be rejected simply for existing.

Also, don't forget that shows CAN still perform now even it they are not nominated so I am sure with or without a nomination we will see The Cher Show and Beetlejuice performing. Maybe not so much the others.

 

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 12:30am

You know as I was writing it I was like "And they were bitching about another one loosing what was it..... meh it was so forgettable that I don't even recall." And NOW I recall yeah.... yeah they were pretty awful and outraged as well. Thank you haha. Spongebob just stood out more in my mind as then they all got ragey part 2 when it closed soon after.

[magictodo123]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 6:28am

I couldn't believe how vicious people got about TBV over SpongeBob. Audience social media responses does not a Tony Award winner make (if that makes sense). It was absolutely ridiculous! What was worse: TBV vs. SpongeBob or Avenue Q vs. Matilda? Although there was less of a social media presence when that was around? 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 6:39am

I think you mean Avenue Q vs Wicked, or Kinky Boots vs Matilda ^

For this season, based on what I've heard Cher is not gonna get in. Even though it sounds safe and other than the details of the story I feel I already know exactly what the show is like, I think Ain't Too Proud might get in tbh. Seems to be a major crowd pleaser so I can see that sneaking in over Be More Chill. It'd be nice to have 3 orgiginal mudicals nominated though!!!

[woeisme3]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 11:06am

This year reminds me of 2012, where there were two big beloved shows (Once and Newsies/Hadestown and Tootsie), One well regarded show slightly behind (Nice Work/The Prom) and then a bunch of meh. I think it’s likely to play out like that year, where a bunch of shows get a low number of nominations. I think at this point Be More Chill is the likely last spot, but I don’t think it’ll be fully embraced by then nominated and may walk away with only 3 or 4 nods.

[VotePeron]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 11:26am

Let's not forget how last year Mean Girls led the Tony nominations with 12 nominations. Who knows what they'll do this year?

I'm pretty confident it'll be:

• Hadestown (winner)
• Tootsie
• The Prom
• Be More Chill

I think Oklahoma! may get the most nominations of the season, as well - Revival, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress (Testa or Stroker), Supporting Actor (Tebo or Vaill), Set, Lights, Sound. It's only hitch is it can't get nominated for Book or Score. If it was a less competitive season, I could imagine giving Gabrielle Hamilton an honorary Tony for her solo Dream Ballet.

 

[ACL2006]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 11:44am

I think it could actually be The Cher Show. I see it get nominated for Block(best actress), Diamond (supporting actress), costumes, choreo, sound, lighting design. And we could get five nominees. I think Ain't Too Proud is the dark horse. But my five would be:

Hadestown
Tootsie
The Prom
The Cher Show
Beetlejuice

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 11:53am

I agree ACL2006. I feel like it's THE CHER SHOW as it easily could grab 5 other nominations without trying too hard:

ACTRESS - Block

FEATURED ACTRESS - Diamond

FEATURED ACTOR - Spector

CHOREOGRAPHY

COSTUME DESIGN

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 12:32pm

Scarlet Leigh said: "It's a very commercial piece so unless it's something that is so good that it's glory just CAN'T be denied, it will be rejected simply for existing."

Just for argument's sake, what makes Beetlejuice different from something like Tootsie, which is also a commercial movie adaptation but is seemingly only getting very positive buzz? Why reject Beetlejuice for existing? 

I think we have the numbers for five nominees, so I'm going to go with:

Hadestown
Tootsie
The Prom
Ain't Too Proud
Beetlejuice

I think Ain't Too Proud is super-safe, but I also think it was super-entertaining. The audience went absolutely ballistic at the end when I saw it... so I'm really anxious to see what the critics' take is on it. Also worth pointing out that this isn't exactly a very diverse season on Broadway, and that's something that voters may take into consideration. 

For Beetlejuice (which I haven't seen yet so just going on buzz), I think the innovative technical design may help it secure an overall nomination, especially if they're working to fix whatever the problems were that people seemed to have a problem with in DC. I think this might be a dark horse. (Not necessarily to win, just to get better reviews than people are expecting. But obviously that's a random prediction, haha.)

Lord help us all on social media if BMC gets that nomination and inevitably doesn't win. Funny to see the comments here about SpongeBob, because in my feeds it was mostly the Mean Girls stans who were being absolutely awful about Band's Visit. 

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 2:13pm

Judy, good point about tootsie! I might be the only person on earth who didn’t love the Chicago run of the show. Something about hearing a man in a dress preach to me (a woman) about feminism really got to me around act 2. 50% of the jokes were “its funny cause he has a penis” jokes that to me got old FAST (just for me though, the rest of the audience was eating it up). Not saying it shouldn’t get nominated but I found The Prom genuinely funny and heartfelt and Tootsie tiring. The performances is both shows were stellar though, so I’ll be happy for the performers at least.