Tony Awards aftermath

[bear88]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 4:39am

A few quick thoughts and questions in the wake of the Tony Awards:

- For months, the producers of Kimberly Akimbo have been planning for this moment, and it went even better than expected (with the minor exception of Justin Cooley losing to Alex Newell): Best Musical, Best Score, Best Book, Best Actress. Now the question is whether they can capitalize on it. I glanced at Tuesday's ticket prices and noticed that the rear orchestra seat I got for $104 in March (in an otherwise empty row) is at $155.50, like much of the orchestra except for seats close to the stage. There are still $94 seats up in the mezzanine. The question: Will they sell at those prices? Will the musical no longer be easy to buy at the TKTS booth? Will summer tourists be interested? The musical doesn't have to do fantastic business to make a profit given its low running costs. It just has to make its weak box office better.

- What happens to the other non-& Juliet new shows? Are they pretty much doomed, or is there a way to capitalize on Tony performances or something else? The Shucked performance drew much debate Sunday night (I thought it was a mess, and the first misstep I've seen the producers/creatives make in terms of promotion, but others liked it). 

- There are some high-profile musicals opening this summer, including the Back to the Future adaptation and Here Lies Love. How much will those shows affect the struggling ones?

- Any chance Parade tries to extend beyond Aug. 6 in the wake of its impressive win over two Sondheim revivals, or does it go out on a high then with Ben Platt's stated departure? (I assume the latter.) Will it make a profit?

- Is Sweeney Todd pretty much invulnerable as long as Josh Groban stays with the revival, which is apparently until mid-January?

- How much did Funny Girl help itself with its Tony Awards performance as it enters what already promises to be a profitable last few months. Sales had gotten a little soft in recent weeks. Is that over now, with summer tourist season starting?

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 5:54am

Curious what made the Shucked performance a mess to you. Besides Independently Owned being a BIT too short, I thought it did a fantastic job highlighting the whole cast a wide variety of their songs. To me, it felt extremely put together and choreographed! 

Overall, I would say I'm cautiously bullish on all 5 best musical nominees. Of course Kimberly has it's win(s) and &Juliet is already a hit. But, I'm pretty sure the other three have all made money the past few weeks and it's only going to be getting busier in the City. Maybe reconsider around Labor Day, but I think they may be solid for the moment. Overall though, I'd say New York New York is by far the most likely to close, then Some Like it Hot (because it's expensive to run), and then Shucked. 

The only show I'd say is immediately on the chopping block is Life of Pi. I'm sure they'll give it a bit to see if their wins or increased tourism help them. But I doubt it has made money a single week. 

Re: Parade, I think it comes down to how well it does over the next month or so, how close it is to recoupment, and if they can find compelling (ticket-selling) leads. If they're still doing well and are, let's say, 3 weeks away from recoupment and they can find solid replacements, then I think they extend. If not, then not. 

[perfectpenguin]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 7:12am

&Juliet and Kimberly Akimbo’s performances did not persuade me to buy tickets. Although neither did Sweeney Todd’s. Truthfully the only one that did was Parade. After seeing the performance and clips from the show, I still don’t see the appeal for Kimberly Akimbo.

[binau]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 7:15am

My claim: Kimberly Akimbo will run for a while. This is a show that managed to survive with barely any advance, no stars and difficult marketing. In other words, it’s purely based on word of mouth. Unlike a strange loop or the band’s visit I think the people who are seeing the show now through the Tony win would be more likely to recommend the show to others because it’s far more accessible and fun. A strange loop had difficult and very niche material. The band’s visit was a very high brow show that I think is sometimes lost on the general public. 

[MCW1227]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 7:16am

I checked TDF before the major awards were announced last night and KA and Shucked, both on TDF regularly, were already gone. KA has been a marketing challenge from the start and it should now be set for the remainder of the summer. I think many people don’t realize that they have been open since the fall and while hanging on, they haven’t flourished financially. Hopefully these we’ll deserved awards will achieve that. Not sure that Shucked was helped much with that Tony prtformance but we can hope. 

[RippedMan]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 7:20am

perfectpenguin said: "&Juliet and Kimberly Akimbo’s performances did not persuade me to buy tickets. Although neither did Sweeney Todd’s. Truthfully the only one that did was Parade. After seeing the performance and clips from the show,I still don’t see the appeal for Kimberly Akimbo."

Should go see it! It’s an interesting, weird little musical. 

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 7:50am

binau said: "My claim: Kimberly Akimbo will run for a while. This is a show that managed to survive with barely any advance, no stars and difficult marketing. In other words, it’s purely based on word of mouth. Unlike a strange loop or the band’s visit I think the people who are seeing the show now through the Tony win would be more likely to recommend the show to others because it’s far more accessible and fun. A strange loop had difficult and very niche material. The band’s visit was a very high brow show that I think is sometimes lost on the general public."

Kimberly will see the same fate as all of these smaller. More niche shows of The Band’s Visit, Fun Home and A Strange Loop. 100%. It’s helped by being in a smaller house, but it will not run longer than any of those 3 except maybe Loop. 

 

 

[OuttaTowner]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 7:51am

I’d love to know what matters most to folks unfamiliar with shows, planning trips to NYC. Or to those folks who may eventually get a touring company. The performance clip?  The awards themselves?  Name brand recognition?

Having seen most of the nominated, I don’t know that any really sold themselves to the uninitiated. And for shows that have already posted closing notices (e.g., Parade, Funny Girl, Leopoldstadt), those bumps could put some more $ in the coffers. I’m guessing a couple (Sweeney and Juliet) are safe no matter the Tony impact. But performance awards are a double edged swords - folks mar buy seats only to find an understudy on, or that the award recipient has left the show. 
At any rate, I guess SLIH may have fared best, in terms of the performance, but I too thought Shucked was a bit of a mess, NYNY should have done Wine &Peaches, and…out of context, I’m not sure any one number will sell KA. 

[raddersons]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 8:09am

If look at the stats, history tells us the only award that turns a show’s sales around significantly is Best Musical. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 8:11am

With its win, I think KA will make it until at least January.

I think NYNY, SLIH, Shucked and Camelot are all safe through the summer but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them close late Aug or Sep.

I could see Parade extending without Platt.

Obviously Sweeney is fine until Groban leaves and & Juliet will be fine for awhile.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 8:33am

I think Shucked and NY,NY are in real trouble along with A Beautiful Noise (but I haven't really paid attention to this one's grosses) I won't be surprised if one (or more) of these announces closing this week...or that all three are gone by summer's end.

Hopefully, KA hs just gotten itself to the new year, with a chance of recouping. 

[The8re phan]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 8:41am

Mr. Wormwood said: "With its win, I think KA will make it until at least January.

I think NYNY, SLIH, Shucked and Camelot are all safe through the summer but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them close late Aug or Sep."

Camelot had previously announced a Sept 3rd closing date ---last night only confirms it will not be extended again

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 9:05am

The8re phan said: "Mr. Wormwood said: "With its win, I think KA will make it until at least January.

I think NYNY, SLIH, Shucked and Camelot are all safe through the summer but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them close late Aug or Sep."

Camelot had previously announced a Sept 3rd closing date ---last night only confirms it will not be extended again"

They did not announce that date as a closing date. That's how long tickets are on sale for. I do agree that's the latest it will stay open. But it was not announced as a closing date.

[quizking101]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 10:39am

KA and SLIH definitely bought themselves some time for sure. SLIH can spin their Best Musical wins from other bodies into the marketing as well as their 4 Tonys.

& Juliet is safe. Shucked has been on an upward trend and tickets are staying at accessible prices (unless that changed after last night). I think NY/NY may be the first one to fold - which is a damn shame considered this is probably Kander’s last hurrah, but the show is so terrible and the Tonys performance was not good. (Why was Colton slurring his words? He was so hard to understand)

In terms of revivals, I doubt Camelot will extend past September 3rd, since the tepid reception and lack of awards don’t muster a case for it (unless LCT has nothing waiting in the wings). Sweeney is safe through January and, depending on if they are recasting, will close then. Parade seems to be the big toss-up - I can’t see this surviving without Ben Platt. Maybe a brief extension to Labor Day? It’s hard to tell since they now have this awards boost but who knows?

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 10:42am

Does everyone really think they will extend Parade without Platt ? No way

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 10:47am

Does Platt have anything lined up next? If they can get him to extend, by all means they should continue at least til September/October (how it would do beyond that is TBD).

I do think SLIH will buck trends and see its grosses go up, though I don’t know if it makes it into 2024. Shucked gone by Labor Day.

Kimberly MIGHT make it to one year but the grosses that come out June 20 and 27 and July 5 will tell us a lot. And then it will have to sustain that bump.

Curious about CAMELOT, which can’t afford to drop too much. It’s on sale through September 3, and I don’t know what else LCT has planned.

BTTF and HLL could definitely take some steam away from 2022-23 shows.

Updated On: 6/12/23 at 10:47 AM

[Sauja]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 11:09am

My concern about the Shucked performance is that they tried to do too many things, and if you don’t already know the show, nothing felt like it had time to take hold. They squeezed bits of what, four songs, into a few minutes? Whereas I thought Kimberly chose its number brilliantly. It showed off the quirky, tender heart of the show, and it was clear about the plot and tone of the piece, which is an oddball. I’m rooting for both shows, but I do think the latter came off better in the performances (and wins, obviously).

[Kad]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 11:13am

OhHiii said: "binau said: "My claim: Kimberly Akimbo will run for a while. This is a show that managed to survive with barely any advance, no stars and difficult marketing. In other words, it’s purely based on word of mouth. Unlike a strange loop or the band’s visit I think the people who are seeing the show now through the Tony win would be more likely to recommend the show to others because it’s far more accessible and fun. A strange loop had difficult and very niche material. The band’s visit was a very high brow show that I think is sometimes lost on the general public."

Kimberly will see the same fate as all of these smaller. More niche shows of The Band’s Visit, Fun Home and A Strange Loop. 100%. It’s helped by being in a smaller house, but it will not run longer than any of those 3 except maybe Loop."

How do you measure success? Fun Home and Band’s Visit both recouped and had successful tours and Fun Home is being widely produced regionally (and I expect KA will be, too, given its cast makeup). Shows like these were never going to be hits that run for a decade but they become part of the canon just the same. 

Updated On: 6/12/23 at 11:13 AM

[DAME]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 11:14am

I’m hoping Parade gets a extension .  And boy if you were still trying to find more affordable tickets for  Leas final weeks … forget about it.  

[Bette's Turban]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 11:28am

What’s next at the St James ?

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 11:33am

Bette's Turban said: "What’s next at the St James ?"

NYNY should be ok through end of summer, but idk about the fall.

I always kind of assumed Jordan Roth (who is producing the ART GATSBY musical) was aiming to put that in the St. James, but that runs May 25-July 21, 2024 –– so Broadway is still a while off. And if the other (Paper Mill) GREAT GATSBY musical makes it to Bway before, that makes things extra tricky, whether it's good or bad.

[JasonC3]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 11:39am

I long ago quit trying to guess what will happen next or how folks who attend theater irregularly make their choices when coming to NYC.   I've been seeing too much for too long to have any objective perspective at this point and am frequently shocked by what excites others.

That said, I would not be surprised if SLIH gets a decent bump from last night as it has the attributes of what many people seem to deem "good theater."  I think the Kimberly Akimbo assessment of making it to year's end seem reasonable if the next few weeks show a good box office gain.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 12:02pm

Anecdotally SLIH seems to be the show that's only gotten positive notices from its Tony number (well, that and Funny Girl), so I'm thinking that could translate to a small box office bump that lets it survive through summer, if not the end of the year.  I also agree that Kimberly will probably last through the end of the year as well.  It's a less controversial show than A Strange Loop, and one that can appeal to families with children, which could do really well if it manages to build up word of mouth outside of the NYC theater crowd.  Shucked has been one of my favorites and the responses to their number seem mixed, but I think it could also see a small bump just from people who are curious to find out more (and their social media/marketing campaign has been hard at work). New York New York will probably catch the summer tourist crowd, but I'm not sure it could sustain itself for much longer than that (I imagine their running costs are pretty high too).

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 12:08pm

I wouldn't bring children to see this show, but definitely teenagers. I brought my 17-year-old sister and she loved it! She said it was one of the funniest shows she's ever seen!

[Owen22]

Posted: 6/12/23 at 1:06pm

I concur that parade without been Platt is not going to run. It's not a terribly accessible show and in my opinion it's never been a very good show. Its winning over the Sweeney Todd revival makes me even more angrier at it! I remember originally I couldn't believe that it actually won best musical even though it had little competition. I was so happy Jason Robert Brown was cut off, as to me he is the bane of modern musical theater!