Broadway By Fall?- Page 3

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 1:56pm

Call_me_jorge said: "I’m curious which shows exactly will return right away. I’m wondering if Wicked, The Lion King, Chicago and other long runners will return for a few months. Maybe they could sell out just because the local crowd will want to watch those shows? But after they get through the local audience they’ll close and wait for international tourism to return to open back up.

I could definitely see the newer shows who haven’t yet burned through their local base yet coming right away. Like Six, Girl From The North Country, Jagged Little Pill, Diana, and Tina.

Regarding the rehearsal process, I can definitely see everyone having a preview period of some sort."

It is not viable, contractually, financially, or otherwise, to open for a short period and then close. As I have said before, I expect a half dozen or so shows in the fall (a mix of new and old), and maybe twice that many or so in the spring. Some evergreen productions will likely never come back, ditto for some new shows. And we will see some completely new shows. For some semblence of normalcy, I'd anticipate the 22-23 season. There will be no critical mass of tourists in 2021 so look for shows that will sell well locally or regionally. Remember also that productions will have been bleeding for a year and a half, so risk aversion is going to be a popular concept. Re "previews," that's not an especially meaningful concept for a show that has already opened, and it is not especially good for business either. Finally, no one knows anything; these are educated guesses but unlike some, at least they are educated.

 

[JennH]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 1:57pm

Call_me_jorge said: "I’m curious which shows exactly will return right away. I’m wondering if Wicked, The Lion King, Chicago and other long runners will return for a few months. Maybe they could sell out just because the local crowd will want to watch those shows? But after they get through the local audience they’ll close and wait for international tourism to return to open back up.

I could definitely see the newer shows who haven’t yet burned through their local base yet coming right away. Like Six, Girl From The North Country, Jagged Little Pill, Diana, and Tina.

Regarding the rehearsal process, I can definitely see everyone having a preview period of some sort."

I think the long running landmarks will be fine regardless. I honestly don't know which to see on the first night back...POTO just because I'm looonnngggg overdue to see it again (it's been 16 years) and I imagine much audience rejoicing will happen at that overtures' first glorious chord, or Wicked just to be a part of the raucous applause we know will take many minutes to die down at Glinda's "It's good to see me, isn't it?"

SIX will likely be fine as it's not a tourist demographic, and locals in each theatre metropolis around the globe have been hankering for it. The rest of the non touristy shows? It's hard to say.

And y'all...July 4th is a dark day for 99% of shows. There's usually a very small handful that still have a show, but the vast majority are dark that day.

 

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 3:58pm

JennH said: "Call_me_jorge said: "I’m curious which shows exactly will return right away. I’m wondering if Wicked, The Lion King, Chicago and other long runners will return for a few months. Maybe they could sell out just because the local crowd will want to watch those shows? But after they get through the local audience they’ll close and wait for international tourism to return to open back up.

I could definitely see the newer shows who haven’t yet burned through their local base yet coming right away. Like Six, Girl From The North Country, Jagged Little Pill, Diana, and Tina.

Regarding the rehearsal process, I can definitely see everyone having a preview period of some sort."

I think the long running landmarks will be fine regardless. I honestly don't know which to see on the first night back...POTO just because I'm looonnngggg overdue to see it again (it's been 16 years) and I imagine much audience rejoicing will happen at that overtures' first glorious chord,or Wicked just to be a part of the raucous applause we know will take many minutes to die downat Glinda's "It's good to see me, isn't it?"

SIX will likely be fine as it's not a tourist demographic, and locals in each theatre metropolis around the globe have been hankering for it.The rest of the non touristy shows? It's hard to say.

And y'all...July 4th is a dark day for 99% of shows. There's usually a very small handful that still have a show, but the vast majority are dark that day.

"

We will have had 500+ dark days in a row at that point. I’m sure people will make an exception.

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 4:18pm

To reiterate what Hogan said, Broadway's July 4th schedule depends on the day of the week on which it falls. The vast majority of shows are dark at night regardless of the day, but on the last Saturday July 4th, in 2015, almost every show had their matinee performance. I couldn't find the info for the last time it fell on a Sunday, which it does this year, but you get the idea.

Hamilton's possible reopening on that date has nothing to do with all that, though. If that's what the producers want to do, then it'll happen, no matter what day of the week it is. At this point, however, I'd call it not much more than wishful thinking, although I do think it's a fun prospect.

Updated On: 3/6/21 at 04:18 PM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 4:33pm

I will never understand why people make up answers that are easily determinable. In 2019, the were 3 performances on July 4, a Thursday. That's about 90% dark. In 2018, July 4 was a Wednesday and there were 10 performances, about 68% dark. When the 4th falls on a weekend, as ct2nyc notes, most shows have performances on the 4th. And yes Alex has put it in context for everyone: at this point, people would put on a show at 4 in the morning, and if Hamilton (or anyone else)  decides to pull off this stunt, it will happen. Can they sustain it at $1000? I don't know; I doubt it, but if they decided to perform for free for a year, everyone would STILL be multimillionaires. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 4:58pm

I’m curious what the indoor capacity will be here, come July. If it’s not at the Max, I’d think it would just be written off as promotional costs to showcase their return.

Updated On: 3/6/21 at 04:58 PM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 6:09pm

Jordan Catalano said: "I’m curious what the indoor capacity will be here, come July. I’m thinking there *is* a way (albeit) a very expensive way for some shows like “Hamilton” and “Wicked” and other shows with other productions running, to be up and running themselves by July if a max. capacity is allowed. If not I’d think it would just be written off as promotional costs to showcase their return."

Knowing the people involved, I don't expect some major promotional cost that can't be recouped in fairly short order, because I don't think it can be justified. I also can't imagine we are going to be at max by then. For a show like Hamilton, though, and forgetting about this $1000 flat ticket which seems insane to me over a period even for them, here is some workable math. 500 tickets @$300 avg is a gross of $1.2mil and neither of those numbers seems crazy. That yields profit obviously. You can play with the numbers to align with some other guesses (300@$500 is identical, something north of 300@300 is breakeven, etc.). The problem of course is that there is only one Hamilton. Others shows will not sell out and certainly cannot expect the same price points. As I have been saying, short of a stunt, I think we are looking at the fall, and I think we are looking at 6 or so shows so that the audience does not get too diluted. (Also re stunts, there has been talk of some major stars going into some tired old shows. Not gonna happen. We will get Hugh in the cold months. No one is going to want to reopen to close. We shall see but barring some bad news nobody wants I think we can start to have a non-crazytalk conversation about how this unfolds. 

[unclevictor]

Posted: 3/6/21 at 11:27pm

Strange how Sutton Ross has been quiet. Wonder if he/she/they are ok? Maybe they’re still on the floor? ROLF!

Anyway, all jokes aside, I hope bway comes back soon! Looking forward to seeing what happens.

[jo]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 7:16am

"Also re stunts, there has been talk of some major stars going into some tired old shows. Not gonna happen. We will get Hugh in the cold months. No one is going to want to reopen to close. We shall see but barring some bad news nobody wants I think we can start to have a non-crazytalk conversation about how this unfolds."

Hugh has a movie coming up in September (simultaneous release in theaters and streaming - HBO-MAX). It is likely that there will be promotional media tour interviews ... and the subject of Broadway & TheMusicMan will likely come up. So that could add to perking up interest on Broadway shows that may have opened as well as his upcoming show.  The difference between MusicMan & other returning or new shows is that tickets sold earlier ( pre-pandemic) for TMM were rescheduled to Dec 2021-July 2022, except for those who sought refunds. I have kept my tickets for June 2022 as I am coming from overseas & that seems like a more likely date for relaxation of travel rules and for most Broadway shows to be on stable footing?  I will wait till early next year to get tickets for other shows that I am interested in, if they reopen.

Btw, the new movie is a romantic sci-fi thriller called REMINISCENCE, written & directed by Westworld's Lisa Joy-Nolan & co-produced with husband Jonathan Nolan ( who co-writes scripts with brother Chris). Rebecca Ferguson ( Jenny in Greatest Showman) co-stars.

 

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 1:07pm

When the 4th falls on a weekend most shows have performances on the 4th.

Correct. And even though the 4th of July was a Wednesday in 2018, I had a great time watching Mean Girls and My Fair Lady. I know it's a holiday but both of my shows were sold out, so they are missing out on a lot of money by having most shows dark. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 2:33pm

unclevictor said: "Anyway, I hope bway comes back soon! Looking forward to seeing what happens. "

I hope B’way implements some of the safety protocols that have made theatre in Melbourne a success so far. For a fall reopening, I can see full (or near-full) houses, masks in the audience and backstage, organized entry/exits (e.g. an airplane), proof of vaccination/a recent negative COVID test, and obviously no stage door, to say the least. I see some of the restrictions being lifted by the start of the 2022-23 season, when more people will probably feel comfortable seeing a show.

[leefowler]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 3:39pm

I'm still trying to imagine a producer willing to make the multi-million investment to get a show back on, knowing that it likely won't be profitable for a very long time.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 3:47pm

Jordan Levinson said: "I hope B’way implements some of the safety protocols that have made theatre inMelbourne a successso far. For a fall reopening, I can see full (or near-full) houses, masks in the audience and backstage, organized entry/exits (e.g. an airplane), proof of vaccination/a recent negative COVID test,and obviously no stage door, to say the least. I see some of the restrictions beinglifted by the start of the 2022-23 season, when more people will probably feel comfortable seeing a show."

First of all, safety protocols have and will continue to come from the state, not from "Broadway." Second, I don't see the reasoning behind non-socially distanced seating and entry/exit regulation. Third, I don't think masks are routinely viable backstage for any number of reasons; what we will have is tightly regulated backstages, together with vaccinations. Finally, unless something changes, the mask requirement should end by Spring or before. We are just waiting for herd immunity and that's the bottom line. 

@leefowler exactly. Producers will raise money for shows that fail, as they always have, but no one is going to raise money (or find someone from whom to raise it) for a show that is projected to bleed money. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 4:07pm

I don’t think we’ll see many of those “safety protocols” in the Fall when shows return but then again, the theaters themselves could implement the rules to make people feel safer returning. It’s all just a real crapshoot at this point. I can’t even imagine what it’s going to look like in the West End in a few months when they hopefully reach Phase 4 and lift restrictions. We’re just still too far out from it to see a clear picture.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 6:37pm

Jordan Catalano said: "I don’t think we’ll see many of those “safety protocols” in the Fall when shows return but then again, the theaters themselves could implement the rules to make people feel safer returning. It’s all just a real crapshoot at this point. I can’t even imagine what it’s going to look like in the West End in a few months when they hopefully reach Phase 4 and lift restrictions. We’re just still too far out from it to see a clear picture."

Are you saying you think masks will not be required? (I don't agree with that; Fauci at least has been saying at least the rest of the year, and I think that makes sense because I think most of us at least here have become more or less accustomed to them, and they short-circuit any miscalculations to a large extent.) I agree we are still too far out to truly know. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 6:49pm

No, I’m saying that I can very well see theaters requiring masks even if the state doesn’t. And by that I mean if we get to a point where there’s a full reopening and virus cases are so low that govt doesn’t need to have mask mandates in place. But again it’s all just speculation either way because we’re too far away from any of it being a reality right now.
And then it becomes like the movies where you have to wear your mask unless you’re eating or drinking which, honestly, defeats the point of a mask policy at all and why I keep mine on the entire time I’m in there. But in theaters will it be a mask mandate unless you’re at the Bar or eating your bag of Twizzlers?

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 7:08pm

TBD At least we know there will be a Scott Rudin show, so twizzlers next to you will not be a problem. 

 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 7:21pm

I can’t even imagine what movie stars Rudin is actively trying to get into a play or musical for next year. Maybe he can finally get that Oprah/Audra “‘Night Mother” to happen.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 7:46pm

Jordan Catalano said: "I can’t even imagine what movie stars Rudin is actively trying to get into a play or musical for next year. Maybe he can finally get that Oprah/Audra “‘Night Mother” to happen."

Or Oprah/Uma, or Uma/Oprah.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/7/21 at 7:47pm

With David Letterman making a special guest appearance.

[South Florida]

Posted: 3/8/21 at 7:57pm

I want to get back to Broadway and I'm a tourist.  If there are no mandated masks in the Fall then I won't be going.  Rather than searching can someone let me know here how the "Company" revival fits in to this.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 3/8/21 at 8:27pm

I cannot imagine that the mask requirement will be lifted until there is verified herd immunity, and that is not going to happen until the end of the year at the earliest. I don't know what Company plans but my guess would be 2022 at some point. But again, I have no clue.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/8/21 at 8:33pm

Didn’t someone recently state that a “Company” cast member said on Twitter that they’re aiming for the Fall?

[SouthernCakes]

Posted: 3/8/21 at 10:27pm

Live theater just depends on so many variables. I’m hopefully but like to have a show tour, go through airports, hotels, I don’t know. Might be awhile.

[ljay889]

Posted: 3/9/21 at 7:53pm

Jordan Catalano said: "Didn’t someone recently state that a “Company” cast member said on Twitter that they’re aiming for the Fall?"

Yep, Matt Doyle said last week that the hope and the goal is to return in the Fall, according to the producers.