Phase 4 Reopening ?

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 10:33am

Gov Cuomo may have thrown cold water on Bway opening sooner rather than later.Hard to believe with a solid month of protesters marching and gathering with no social distancing did not result in higher CoVid numbers

The gov now states he is worried about entertainment venues such as movie theaters and other enclosed venues that air conditioning may spread the virus around rather than killing it. Until the eggheads figure it out these venues would not be reopening when phase 4 starts. He gave no idea as to when their reopening might be.

What do you think of this development ?

Updated On: 6/25/20 at 10:33 AM

[BrodyFosse123]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 10:45am

Phase 4, not Stage 4. This isn’t cancer. These are the phases of when non-essentials will be permitted to resume business/operations.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 11:04am

He didn’t throw cold water on anything. Broadway isn’t reopening this year and wasn’t going to, even before Cuomo said that.

[RUkiddingme]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 11:14am

I imagine he's talking about Phase 4 as it applies to now in NY STATE.  Will movie theaters upstate be able to open in July or Aug?  No.

He's not focused on Broadway or April 2021.

 

[uncageg]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 11:17am

Brody, I think we know what Roxy meant!

 

Yeah, I saw this and thought "Well ok, theater is not in Phase 4 anymore." My immediate thought was what does he expect to happen with the air systems in these venues or is he hoping for a breakthrough in treatment or vaccine by year's end when it will be safer? And then we started getting the announcements of new dates for shows in 2021. Unless theaters put new air circulating systems in, if there is no breakthrough in treating Covid by year's end, conditions will be the same inside them and then what will they do? And still, how will they keep the actors safe? 

But the bottom line is saving lives so they will do what they have to do. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 11:18am

Mr Roxy said: "Gov Cuomo may have thrown cold water on Bway opening sooner rather than later.Hard to believe with a solid month of protesters marching and gathering with no social distancing did not result in higher CoVid numbers

The gov now states he is worried about entertainment venues such as movie theaters and other enclosed venues that air conditioning may spread the virus around rather than killing it. Until the eggheads figure it out these venues would not be reopening when stage 4 starts. He gave no idea as to when their reopening might be.

What do you think of this development ?"

Phase 4 was never a full reopening without distancing and masks; it is a step in the controlled reopening. Also, the parameters of phase 4 were intentionally left vague until the time approached. Fundamental to the intelligent reopening process is to not get too far ahead and to adapt to both new understanding and new data. That is exactly what is going on here. Cuomo gives no idea when large indoor assembly might be possible because neither he nor anyone else knows. Finally, there is an abundance of data now on the drastic difference between indoor and outdoor assemblies, and there are lots of articles talking about this. Outdoors + masks =  fairly safe, and if you add in that people are moving rather than static, that improves  the odds even more. We know how to live through this; all we have to do is not be ignorant. Which is asking a lot.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 11:25am

The only thing this means is that the earliest Broadway could legally reopen right now is July 20th, if we did everything perfectly and move into the different phases only two weeks apart.  And obviously we already know Broadway is not reopening July 20th no matter what happens, so this announcement really didn't change a thing regarding it.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 12:27pm

Broadway61004 said: "The only thing this means is that the earliest Broadway could legally reopen right now is July 20th, if we did everything perfectly and move into the different phases only two weeks apart. And obviously we already know Broadway is not reopening July 20th no matter what happens, so this announcement really didn't change a thing regarding it."

This is not correct. There is no announcement of the parameters of phase 4 so no one can say what would be legal at that time. Moreover, it is inconceivable that phase 4 will not have social distancing requirements that preclude viability. Even if lawful to open at a percentage and with social distance, that is like saying that it is lawful to swim from New York to the Canary Islands.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 12:37pm

HogansHero said: "Broadway61004 said: "The only thing this means is that the earliest Broadway could legally reopen right now is July 20th, if we did everything perfectly and move into the different phases only two weeks apart. And obviously we already know Broadway is not reopening July 20th no matter what happens, so this announcement really didn't change a thing regarding it."

This is not correct. There is no announcement of the parameters of phase 4 so no one can say what would be legal at that time. Moreover, it is inconceivable that phase 4 will not have social distancing requirements that preclude viability. Even if lawful to open at a percentage and with social distance, that is like saying that it is lawful to swim from New York to the Canary Islands."

HogansHero, I'm not looking to get into another argument here, but did you actually read my post?  Literally the only thing I said was that it was theoretically possible for NYC to be in phase 4 by July 20th (it's theoretically possible that we could be in phase 3 on July 6th, and therefore theoretically possible that we could be in phase 4 by July 20th).  Cuomo has not laid out the exact framework for what phase 4 in NYC will look like.  Which means exactly what I said: The only thing Cuomo's announcement meant was that in an absolutely perfect world, phase 4 could begin on July 20th and theatres could possibly reopen then but we all know that's not actually happening.  And therefore this announcement doesn't change anything about whether Broadway could open this Spring.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 1:00pm

No argument from me on the substance of what you said just now. My reaction was to "[t]he only thing this means is that the earliest Broadway could legally reopen right now is July 20th, if we did everything perfectly and move into the different phases only two weeks apart." That is not a correct statement of the situation but it doesn't matter since clearly you understand the situation.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 1:08pm

Broadway61004 said: "The only thing this means is that the earliest Broadway could legally reopen right now is July 20th, if we did everything perfectly and move into the different phases only two weeks apart. And obviously we already know Broadway is not reopening July 20th no matter what happens, so this announcement really didn't change a thing regarding it."

Um, what? Movie theaters, malls, casinos, amusement parks, gyms, and theaters won't be opening in Phase 4. Legally reopen? No, that's completely wrong. There is NO date for when any of these things can open. 

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 4:37pm

What will be the biggest unanswered question in all of this ? Will people return in sufficient numbers to make Broadway viable? Cutting out half the seats is a no brainer. Prices would have to rise to make up for the lost revenue. Investors might be a little skittish with this. Another thing is how many theater regulars will not come back. We have,2_of our friends who were really avid theatergoers. They would see every show Broadway and Off. Every year they would go to London to see what was playing We marveled at how they could see so many shows in such a short space of time. When they went to Broadway and Off they would go with a group of people

Spoke to both of them and cold turkey said they were finished with Broadway .It was not a money issue but they simply got tired of going to the theater .I was shocked .The longer there is no theater the greater the prospects are that they will lose some of their hometown audience. The tourist season audience will shrink as,well.

Your thoughts

Updated On: 6/25/20 at 04:37 PM

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 6:08pm

It's easy for movie theaters and concert halls to do the every other seat thing. But, I just don't see it happening on Broadway. It's a business and packing people in every night is the ideal situation. To lose 50% of the seats and charging twice the price is just not viable. I think when Broadway reopens next Spring it will be fully open with some restrictions but since social distancing is impossible for both audience members and cast/crew, it will be long after that requirement has ended. 

[stoptheworld38]

Posted: 6/25/20 at 11:49pm

One of my biggest concerns is the reopening of schools.  (One of the main things in Phase 4). Both of my towns (where my immediate family is/where I've been the past few months, and where I went to college and live most of the year) - in upstate NY and Vermont have been doing remarkably well at managing and being safe. However they are both major college towns and (as of now) are planning on reopening the colleges (as well as K-12 schools, at least in VT) this fall. Obviously the reopening will come with guidelines/restrictions (masks, smaller class sizes, etc) but I'm already confident there will be students who blow all that off and don't take it seriously. And to expect students (and teachers) to wear a mask for an entire school day? Gosh I'm unbelievably thankful I finished college right before all this started... And especially with college students coming back to campuses from all over the country I'm afraid to see what might happen. To be honest, I really think that students being in school, in a classroom together, sharing large common spaces, etc - is at least as risky as being in a theatre, if not more so.

[uncageg]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 12:43am

Sutton Ross said: "It's easy for movie theaters and concert hallsto do the every other seat thing. But, I just don't see it happening on Broadway. It's a business and packing people in every night is the ideal situation. To lose 50% of the seats and charging twice the price is just not viable. I think when Broadway reopens next Spring it will be fully open with some restrictions but since social distancing is impossible for both audience members and cast/crew, it will be long after that requirement has ended."

Concert halls and movie theaters are businesses also that need to fill seats to make money. There are a few places in Japan that are doing the social distancing thing in concert halls and they are not making enough money.

 

[Fosse76]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 5:56am

uncageg said: "Sutton Ross said: "It's easy for movie theaters and concert hallsto do the every other seat thing. But, I just don't see it happening on Broadway. It's a business and packing people in every night is the ideal situation. To lose 50% of the seats and charging twice the price is just not viable. I think when Broadway reopens next Spring it will be fully open with some restrictions but since social distancing is impossible for both audience members and cast/crew, it will be long after that requirement has ended."

Concert halls and movie theaters are businesses also that need to fill seats to make money. There are a few places in Japan that are doing the social distancing thing in concert halls and they are not making enough money."

Except movie theaters can be profitable without selling every seat. They can require social distancing in the auditoriums and still make money since they don't have the same overhead that live entertainment does.

[Kad]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 10:15am

At this point, it won’t matter how things are in New York. Hopefully they will continue to improve here. But cases are spiking in half the country, and Broadway relies heavily on tourist audiences. It cannot sustainably reopen without them. But if the pandemic is not contained on a nationwide scale, Broadway can not safely reopen. The theaters, with their cramped quarters and outdated ventilation systems, are a disaster waiting to happen. All it takes is a few infected people to trigger a superspread event.

Updated On: 6/26/20 at 10:15 AM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 12:31pm

It is of course true that Broadway cannot reopen in a New York bubble, both because of the lack of containment and also because of the tourist void. As long as we are quarantining arrivals from high risk places, the numbers are not going to be there for (at least) most shows. This is like a broken record, but until there is an effective way to defeat the virus, there will be no Broadway. That said, it's silly to project doom and gloom. Of course there are folks in a deep funk who have reacted by exhibiting signs of fatigue and malaise. But this will not last forever; we are just an impatient lot. And what history teaches us is that when we emerge, our interest in that of which we were deprived (which includes the theatre of course) will be robust. As I have said before, the Roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu in short order.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 2:39pm

Concert halls and movie theaters are businesses also that need to fill seats to make money. There are a few places in Japan that are doing the social distancing thing in concert halls and they are not making enough money.
 

I know, and the movie theaters in America have the social distancing/mask rule as well. I don't know how attendance has been or will be when most movie theaters open up in July, but Cuomo pointing out that the AC can just put the virus up in the air and circulate around the entire room makes sense and does not bode well for theaters, especially independent ones. I guess things suck all around and will continue to do so. 

 

[Highland Guy]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 2:59pm

Mr Roxy said: "The tourist season audience will shrink as,well.

Your thoughts"

 

My husband and I have made our home in beautiful Southern California for more than a quarter century.  During those years, we have enjoyed our numerous cross-country visits to NYC and Broadway.   But because we refuse to do anything that might jeopardize our health and lives, and given the current state of the world, we have made the decision that we likely will not return to NYC in the near term.  

 

Updated On: 6/27/20 at 02:59 PM

[Heather4]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 4:17pm

Concerning movie theatres: Most theatre chains are looking for a mid-July opening, however that was when Tenet was scheduled for a July 17th release and it has been pushed back an additional month to August 12th.  Disney is considering pushing back the July 24th release of Mulan.   Wonder Woman 84 was also pushed back until October 2nd from its August 14th opening.  The mid-July opening for several of the larger companies (AMC, Regal) was also announced prior to the current surges in cases in multiple states and is also potentially dependent on when new films would be released.

[LexiGirl]

Posted: 6/26/20 at 5:17pm

Mr Roxy said: "The tourist season audience will shrink as,well.

Your thoughts"

I actually came to the opposite realization last night. I’m firmly in “middle age” now, live in Atlanta, and try to make it to NYC twice a year for shows. Whenever Broadway opens, I plan to go more often, taking more trips per year and seeing more shows while I’m there. Watching some of these streaming performances, specials, and clips that have come out during all of this, I realized how much I’ve missed over the years and don’t want to miss out anymore. So as long as I’m healthy and can afford it, I’ll be there, just taking extra precautions for the foreseeable future.

[BwayinVan]

Posted: 6/27/20 at 8:08pm

Being somebody that comes to NYC every spring I know I won’t be rushing back until the US as a whole gets the virus under control. Here in BC people have been following medical advise re social distancing etc and as a province we are averaging 10-20 cases a day. Our theatres haven’t reopened yet and anything over 50 people won’t likely be open till there is a vaccine. I’m curious how shows that have actors in intimate settings will fair. I mean a theatre can do its best for the audience but I would imagine the risk of two actors signings inches from eachother could help spread it and therefore casts could become a breeding ground. Audiences can wear masks but you can have Eliza and A.Ham up there in a mask.

I’m hopeful to return in the spring but at the same time I’m cautiously optimistic. Tourists within the country may come back much sooner before international tourists.

[BwayinVan]

Posted: 6/27/20 at 8:10pm

Being somebody that comes to NYC every spring I know I won’t be rushing back until the US as a whole gets the virus under control. Here in BC people have been following medical advise re social distancing etc and as a province we are averaging 10-20 cases a day. Our theatres haven’t reopened yet and anything over 50 people won’t likely be open till there is a vaccine. I’m curious how shows that have actors in intimate settings will fair. I mean a theatre can do its best for the audience but I would imagine the risk of two actors signings inches from eachother could help spread it and therefore casts could become a breeding ground. Audiences can wear masks but you can have Eliza and A.Ham up there in a mask.

I’m hopeful to return in the spring but at the same time I’m cautiously optimistic. Tourists within the country may come back much sooner before international tourists.