Broadway to reopen Sept 14- Page 6

[dramamama611]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 9:57am

TBH, I won't  be convinced on any of the shows opening Sept/Oct until I'm sitting in the theater!

 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 10:13am

Jordan Catalano said: "Well I think a lack of interest in “Chicago” (save for a big star joining) is expected and will be offset by the many tourists who will be back in town late Summer/Fall, which is pretty much the norm for that show."

Your premise, unless you disregard all of the data being accumulated by the folks who do this for a living, is faulty. And the same people will tell you (easily backed up by hotel data) is that most of the tourists you are seeing now (and of course their numbers will grown substantially) are day trippers. And what do we know about day trippers? They are not going to a Broadway show before heading home. So even for Chicago's announced schedule, you have a problem.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 10:16am

My premise that tourism will be up in four months and that “Chicago” is a show that primarily appeals to tourists, is faulty?

[benfox2]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 11:29am

I think I agree with Jordan. Of all the shows that are generating hype for a return to Broadway I don't think anyone is expecting Chicago to be one of them lol. 

I would also say this board is a bad representation of the population of people who see and fund Chicago. As Jordan said it's mostly casual tourists, a group that's almost certainly a minority on this board.

[BroadwayNYC2]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 11:40am

I almost pulled the Trigger on Chicago--I want my first visit back to be a classic Broadway musical (I wish Phantom was opening sooner). Alas, I can't bring myself to do it. Six it is...for now.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 11:57am

Chicago will likely get a name in for Roxie or Billy. I don't mind seeing it again as long as Amra Faye Wright isn't Velma.

[rkade21]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 12:23pm

Domestic tourism should pick up fairly quickly through the summer and Chicago will get a lot of overflow from people who want to see shows week one but couldn’t get tickets to Hamilton/Wicked/TLK (and is a different demo than Six).

I’m sure they’ll be fine to open and Chicago didn’t really ever sell out anyways? Seemed a daily fixture on TKTS.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 12:36pm

Jordan Catalano said: "My premise that tourism will be up in four months and that “Chicago” is a show that primarily appeals to tourists, is faulty?"

The latter is definitely not faulty. I said that tourism would be up ["and of course their numbers will grown substantially"] but not nearly enough to sustain all of these shows. The "faulty" part is that you think the "lack of interest" will be offset by tourism. It's gonna be up, no doubt, but not to a sustainable level for this many tourist-dependent shows. (Factor in what will be at least some of the "crowded theatre phobia" that has been expressed here, even among people who are eager to get back.) Many (including me) have been saying for months that the reopening needed to focus on attracting locals (including regionals). As you look at the shows that have been/are expected to be announced, how many are likely to attract locals? I hope I am wrong but I think the strategy is terrible. 

@benfox I find myself mostly agreeing with you, which is funny considering you said you thought you agreed with Jordan. lol My concern is that there are many more shows for the tourists that most everyone thinks will be slow to return to the theatre, and not much to attract locals. I'd also add that I don't think the problem is going to manifest out of the gate: there is a pent up demand the likes of which we have never seen, but the issue is sustaining it. I think there is a good chance half of the announced shows will be toast by New Years.

Updated On: 5/7/21 at 12:36 PM

[jonartdesigns]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 2:50pm

I've been waiting for YEARS now to see Chicago again, but every time I find myself able to go, Amra is back as Velma. 

[GiantsInTheSky2]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 2:55pm

Hogan, does your opinion change at all with the recent reports of the city possibly offering tourists the J&J vaccine? Genuinely curious about this and the impact it could have on Broadway.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 3:36pm

GiantsInTheSky2 said: "Hogan, does your opinion change at all with the recent reports of the city possibly offering tourists the J&J vaccine? Genuinely curious about this and the impact it could have on Broadway."

Interesting question, but not really. Already, vaccine availability is pretty ubiquitous everywhere (the problem now is getting people to roll up their sleeve) and that situation is going to increase so no one needs to come to NYC to get vaccinated and I can't imagine someone coming here for a vacation and waiting to get a shot (from which their plans may be derailed for a day or two by side effects). It's a typical DeBlasio BS idea.

[Fosse76]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 7:16pm

GiantsInTheSky2 said: "Hogan, does your opinion change at all with the recent reports of the city possibly offering tourists the J&J vaccine? Genuinely curious about this and the impact it could have on Broadway. "

What is tge point of that? Even the J&J vaccine isn't considered "fully effective" until two weeks after the shot... and even a month later it's still producing antibodies. 

[TheatreGoer65]

Posted: 5/7/21 at 9:23pm

JGPR2 said: ""I'm fine with only people who have been vaccinated being allowed in theaters. Stupid people don't get to experience the magic. Period."

So teenagers under 16 can't go to shows, gotcha."

I guess the same would go for people with anaphylaxis who despite wanting to get vaccinated, have a legit reason they can't get vaccinated. I think it'll be likely that patrons will be allowed if they're

a) vaccinated 

or 

b) present a negative covid test 

[GiantsInTheSky2]

Posted: 5/8/21 at 12:21am

Fosse76 said: "What is tge point of that? Even the J&J vaccine isn't considered "fully effective" until two weeks after the shot... and even a month later it's still producing antibodies."

That is the same case for Pfizer and Moderna. You are considered “fully vaccinated” once the two weeks mark has past after your second dose.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/8/21 at 1:46am

I'm pretty sure Fosse's point was that there is no nexus between vaccinating someone while they visiting NYC and making theatres safe unless, I suppose, they are spending in excess of two weeks in the city. And note also that the passport apps will not give you a passport until more than 14 days after the last required shot. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 5/8/21 at 2:24am

HogansHero said: "I'm pretty sure Fosse's point was that there is no nexus between vaccinating someone while they visiting NYC and making theatres safe unless, I suppose, they are spending in excess of two weeks in the city. And note also that the passport apps will not give you a passport until more than 14 days after the last required shot."

That last part is correct, Hogan. The day after you receive your second dose (or only dose, for J&J) is day one of the 2-week waiting period, meaning NY State residents can access their Excelsior Passes 15 days after their final shot (for now).

[ucjrdude902]

Posted: 5/10/21 at 2:18pm

Interesting that some of the shows have taken down their cast lists. 

[bear88]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 5:56pm

Perhaps this will change, but it's discouraging to me that the notion of proof of vaccination or negative test requirements - which ought to be a no-brainer - appear to be subjects of debate. Producers and politicians are a lot more eager to put tickets on sale than they are about creating an environment that protects people's health as much as possible.

I've read that the emergency use approval of the vaccines prevent theaters or producers from requiring theatergoers or even employees to get vaccinated.

I'm sorry to be the skunk at the garden party, but this doesn't feel like it is going to work. Cruise lines and sports teams that play outside are being more stringent.

Maybe it will all work out just fine, as the number of vaccinated people increases and we lurch our way to herd immunity. I would rather be wrong, even if I wasn't planning a fall/winter trip to New York City anyway. But all it will take is a few outbreaks and things are going to go south quickly.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/11/21 at 6:45pm

@bear I think you misapprehend the process yet to be undertaken over the next 4 months. You seem to be mistaking the producers' relentlessly out-of-the-gate PR for that process which depends, first and foremost, on the state and on the unions. You also are not considering that science is going to advance through that period. 

Also, sometimes the practical renders choices meaningless. Even if theoretically possible, it is quickly going to become miserable to be working on or attending Broadway (with any frequency) without being vaccinated. If you want to understand why, look at the evolution as it relates to baseball. Starting next week, the unvaccinated will be segregated and socially distanced; already, the unvaccinated bear the burden and expense of getting tested within 72 hours of first pitch. Even if there is a choice (and I think producers will have no choice but to eliminate the choices for a variety of reasons), how many people will choose wasting time and money because of their rights. {We are going to see these things increasingly in more and more ways, until all but the most intrepid Trumpies will throw in the towel.} And note also something else I have said before: the Venn diagram between even casual theatre goers and anti-vaxxers has little cross-over, and we can show that with data. 

You're not a skunk. Statements like yours explain why this cannot be a problem. You are going to be the belle of the ball

[bear88]

Posted: 5/12/21 at 2:43am

@HogansHero - Hey, I'm an impatient person. I agree with you that the demographics of the average theatergoer - regardless of the politics of their home state - makes them far more likely than the average person to get vaccines ASAP - or at least not resist them for political or personal reasons. For that reason, I have been mildly surprised that Major League Baseball (at least in New York) is ahead of Broadway. I recognize that the order in which events have occurred (governor's announcement first, then ticket sales, then producers and unions figure out how to make it work) has thrown me off. I was hoping for a reopening plan that felt more coordinated instead of a mad scramble with a lot of uncertainty about safety precautions.

You have preached patience all this time and things will probably sort themselves out in the coming months, either due to scientific advances, herd immunity or additional pressure (from work or school) to just get the vaccine already - even when people are reluctant and are able to be reluctant because of the vaccines' emergency use status.

That's what I'm hoping anyway. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/12/21 at 9:01am

Baseball is 6 weeks in, outdoors, and only now relaxing social distancing. Broadway is 4 months away, indoors, and can't have social distancing. But for those of us who have followed both, the process has been evolving, one step at a time, based on science. I expect the same. The theatre district is currently experiencing hardly any positivity (well under 1%) and only 1-2 new cases a day. The 1st shot vaccination rate is 84% (78% if you include the ineligible population). That influences things, but what will that number be in another month? The goal of the industry is to make everyone comfortable to return, because it is literally an existential baseline for many shows.

[Fosse76]

Posted: 5/12/21 at 1:02pm

HogansHero said: "I'm pretty sure Fosse's point was that there is no nexus between vaccinating someone while they visiting NYC and making theatres safe unless, I suppose, they are spending in excess of two weeks in the city. And note also that the passport apps will not give you a passport until more than 14 days after the last required shot."

Yes, that is what I meant. I think it was 16 days before my info was finally available, but apparently in some cases the info never becomes available. 

[bear88]

Posted: 5/14/21 at 6:11am

HogansHero said: "Baseball is 6 weeks in, outdoors, and only now relaxing social distancing. Broadway is 4 months away, indoors, and can't have social distancing. But for those of us who have followed both, the process has been evolving, one step at a time, based on science. I expect the same. The theatre district is currently experiencing hardly any positivity (well under 1%) and only 1-2 new cases a day. The 1st shot vaccination rate is 84% (78% if you include the ineligible population). That influences things, but what will that number be in another month? The goal of the industry is to make everyone comfortable to return, because it is literally an existential baseline for many shows."

Thursday's CDC news and the tentative stories about Hamilton and other shows leave me increasingly convinced that Broadway is just going to let it up. Part of the reason, I think, is that the alternatives are almost as impractical as social distancing.

Nobody can stop people filming shows, at least without a lot of effort. Enforcing a mask mandate... good luck. And the vaccination requirement that you and I have assumed would happen... I am less sure about that too, unless Broadway shows turn into superspreader events that kill audience members or make a bunch of people seriously ill. New York wants tourists to return, and so the state's own requirements for events (ballgames and concert venues) will be difficult to apply to visitors from other states or countries without a lot of effort.

There are four months between now and Sept. 14, and maybe I'm too skeptical about the success of vaccine efforts or a more concerted effort to require proof of vaccination or negative tests. Jeffrey Seller's comment about not requiring Hamilton patrons to be vaccinated feels like a tell. Did he really just shoot off his mouth without talking to the landlord or key government officials? I doubt it but could be wrong.

I know the industry and the government is going to leave open the possibility of requiring vaccinations and tests. But I just don't think it's going to happen unless the initial flurry of people eager to see a show peters out quickly or there are serious health/PR problems.

As for me, I wasn't planning a fall/winter trip anyway so my opinion is irrelevant. But what would make me feel comfortable to return (vaccination and mask requirements, at least at first) would be a turn-off for many others. 

So I'll wait and watch and try to catch a few local shows if safety protocols are followed, CDC be damned. And for everyone's sake, I hope my concerns are unfounded.