#1

#3Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

#5Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

chicagodannyd said: "Just as in 2016, Youtube commenters heavily favor Trump, even much more than in 2016. Of course late night entertainment hosts have a big following, which is mostly Democratic. But those commenters are heavily outweighed by the mass of commenters favoring Trump on Youtube. 2016 proved Youtube as a fairly accurate predictor of an election."

You're adorable.

#7Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

To be fair, one of the reasons LBJ chose to not run in '68 was because he knew his choices regarding Viet Nam would be a huge liability and that another Democrat would have a better chance of winning than he did.

Though it's also funny that the OP brings up LBJ and Carter as one term presidents but fails to mention Gerald Ford losing to Carter, or George HW Bush losing to Clinton.

#9Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

I don't know hideous trolls and Bernie Bros and the United Usefull Idiots for Russia have managed to highjack the phrase  "The Left"? Other than I know one of the keys to cult leaders seizing the imaginations and critical thinking skills of their followers is to take language that sounds familiar and pervert its meaning so there is no way to accurately describe political ideals because of the corruption of language.

#11Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

PianoMann said: "...your assessment leaves out the pivotal mismatch between perceptions of the economy and Trump's job approval. The economic confidence index right now is also at its lowest point (-10 points) than any election cycle since George H.W. Bush."

Yes, there is a mismatch.  But I contend this mismatch will not be so pivotal.  I'm concentrating on voters who neither like Biden nor Trump.  I suggest they, say about 55% of them, will not vote against their own economic self interest.  That could be the difference that lands Trump a 2nd term.  Possibly others who can't stand the mass biased medias will add to this.  I think it's probable more so than simply possible.

#13Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

I would agree with you, Pauly3, but polling amongst "double-haters," i.e. likely voters who dislike both Trump and Biden, tells a much different story than last time. Trump won folks who disliked him and Hillary by 17 points, whereas a recent SSRS poll had Biden winning that same group of voters by 20+ points––I have to find the link to that number and will provide when I do. I'm sure a rosier economic outlook would swing voters who dislike both to Trump, but the majority of voters who aren't already Trump supporters know that you cannot disaggregate the performance of the economy from the coronavirus, and they trust Biden overwhelmingly on the latter. Those who want to vote in their economic self-interest overwhelmingly know they need a government who will control the pandemic, not one that hosts numerous super-spreader events a day and leaves a trail of COVID spikes in its wake. ETA: Here's two stories on polls amongst "lesser of two evils" voters. Back in April, Bloomberg found Biden with a 50 point advantage amongst that subset; in July, Morning Consult found that gap to be 29 points. Tightening, yes, but those nothing has changed substantially enough vis-á-vis the economy to swing that trend 46 points in Trump's direction to recreate 2016 conditions.

#15Four key indicators reveal a Trump victory

Oh I agree, Pauly. I know folks who benefited greatly from Trump's tax overhaul and they've gone down the rabbit hole with him as a result. They would pay more in taxes under a Biden administration, and it's become clear to me that they'll ride with him on absolutely anything to avoid it. For them, the stock market and the stock market alone = "the economy." There's no doubt those in that category will stick with him.

I do wonder, though, how many of those soft voters from last time Trump has converted into his shrinking base? He's lost a lot of those who begrudgingly voted for him last time because they wanted something new, and I'd suspect those who are voting for him and his economy again probably would've voted for him anyway? That's why the hullabaloo over Biden's oil comments at the debate seemed overblown to me––if you're an oil and gas voter, whether because it's your industry or you see it as the sole lifeblood of your community, you were never voting for Biden.

#17President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris !!!

Broadway Joe said: "I'm a double hater who simply isn't voting."

 

Thanks in some measure to those who chose not to vote in the last Presidential election, we now have a wannabe despot sitting in the Oval Office.  And those in this election who "simply aren't voting," might help ensure the further decline of our American democracy.

#19President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris !!!

Highland Guy said: "The White House has now admited that they "are not going to control the pandemic".

Yet another indicator that reveals aBiden and Harrisvictory!"

So far no country on earth has controlled it. Biden probably will get credit for ending it when the vaccine comes next year .This was,obviously a man made virus created in a China lab. Timing of it was very suspect  Impeachment did not work but this did  ChInese were not worried about the collateral damage..

#21President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris !!!

chicagodannyd said: "Just as in 2016, Youtube commenters heavily favor Trump, even much more than in 2016. Of course late night entertainment hosts have a big following, which is mostly Democratic. But those commenters are heavily outweighed by the mass of commenters favoring Trump on Youtube. 2016 proved Youtube as a fairly accurate predictor of an election.

2. Rallies are also a predictor. Trump has no problem drawing many thousands of people to his rallies, whereas Biden and Harris have great difficulty drawing people to a rally. If a nominee can’t drum up enough enthusiasm for a well attended rally, that is not a good sign.

3. Incumbent Presidents don’t get rejected that often. It happened to Johnson. But in his case, he dragged the USA into a disastrous war. It happened to Carter. In his case the economy under him was very bad: huge inflation, a severe recession, plus the Iranian hostage situation, which he never resolved. Americans will even vote for a mediocre incumbent President, as in the case of Bush.

4. THE ECONOMY: No one can question that the economy under Trump, before the pandemic was hot, superb, with historic numbers. Maybe some don’t care for his personality. But on the whole, the economy is a huge persuader in a voter’s mind.

Keep in mind that a presidential election is not a popularity contest. It is a state by state election, known as the electoral college. So, at this point, the key credible indicators point to a Trump victory.

I could be wrong. I do not have a crystal ball. I am just reporting numbers that proved to be credible in the past. Regarding polls: They were so badly inaccurate in 2016, obviously, they are not any more credible today. The problem there is the bias of the poll takers and the sampling size is exceedingly small to make an accurate judgment. Does anyone honestly believe a poll done by Newsweek, or NBC, or the New York Times, or even Fox News?
Pollsters are just business people making money off an election.

If you are a Biden supporter, feel free to offer your arguments. But I’d appreciate issue/fact based discussion instead of “attack the messenger” garbage."

So Chicagoandnyd - what part of Russia are you from?

#23President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris !!!

Broadway Joe said: "Highland Guy said: "Broadway Joe said: "I'm a double hater who simply isn't voting."



Thanks in some measure to those who chose not to vote in the last Presidential election, we now have a wannabe despot sitting in the Oval Office. And those in this election who "simply aren't voting," might help ensure the further decline of our American democracy."

Would be different if I lived in a swing state or if the popular vote mattered but NY hasn't been red since Regan in 1984, it's definitely not turning red this year."

 

I have absolutely no respect for people who don't vote  NONE.

#25President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris !!!

Yez what some predictors? Try these:

-- As the 2020 U.S. presidential continues to take shape following the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, one man says he already knows who will win.

American historian Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every U.S. presidential election winner since 1984, and this year he says Democratic nominee Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.

"I am predicting, contrary to my 2016 predictions, that with seven keys out against him -- one more than is needed to predict his defeat -- Trump is going to lose this time," Lichtman told CTV's Your Morning on Thursday.

 

 

 

Lichtman was one of the only forecasters who predicted U.S. President Donald Trump's victory in 2016. At the time he also correctly predicted that Trump would be impeached.

"In 2016 I defied all the conventional wisdom and made myself very unpopular in 90 per cent plus Democratic Washington, D.C. by predicting a Trump victory," Lichtman said.

•  You can follow every twist and turn between presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on our new Facebook group

Lichtman uses a system he calls the "13 keys" to predict who will win the White House.

The keys are essentially a collection of true or false questions, Lichtman explains. A true answer is a point for the incumbent candidate or party, while false is a point for the challenger. Only two keys are based on the candidates’ traits.

"My model is unique. It's based on the insight that American presidential elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party holding the White House," Lichtman said.

"In other words, the voters are pragmatic. Do you deserve four more years? They're not fooled by the tricks and turns of the campaign, the attack strategies. The keys look at the big picture."

The 13 keys in his system include such factors as incumbency, candidate’s charisma, long-term and short-term economic figures, social unrest and scandals, as well as foreign or military successes and failures.

While it may seem confusing to some, Lichtman says the system is actually "very simple."

"You don't even have to take your shoes off to use it. If six of the 13 go against the party holding the White House, they are predicted losers," he said.

According to Lichtman's system, seven of the 13 keys favour Biden and six favour Trump, meaning the keys predict Trump will lose.

U.S. polls currently agree with Lichtman’s prediction with Biden showing stronger numbers.

However, Lichtman cautions that his system does not account for unforeseen circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Something that big will trigger keys, and the pandemic, because it resulted in the economic calamity, resulted in the loss of two keys. Remember, it only takes six [keys] to count you out," Lichtman said.

Due to the health crisis, Lichtman says the Trump administration lost the short-term economy key because the pandemic sent the U.S. into a recession, in addition to the long-term economy key because the recession drastically pulled down the average economic growth.

He added that the administration's handling of the pandemic also contributed to the loss of a third key: social unrest.

Despite his prediction, Lichtman acknowledges that he could "of course" be wrong.

"I'm a human being, my system is based on history. I don't have a crystal ball and I noted a couple of things that really could mess things," Lichtman said, adding that the controversy over mail-in voting may ultimately turn the tide for a Trump win.

 

In 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the U.S. presidential election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount of Florida's electoral votes. Lichtman says he stands by validity of his prediction.

While he's confident in this year's forecast, Lichtman says he still gets nervous making it known.

"I've been doing this for 40 years, I'm 73 years old, and I still get butterflies in my stomach when I put myself out every four years," he said.

Lichtman said voter suppression and possible Russian interference are the factors worrying him.

"Republicans depend on old white guys like me, but you can't create more old white guys. You can't make us live to be 150, but the Republicans, led by Trump, are trying it seems to restrict the vote of the rising Democratic base of minorities and young people," Lichtman said.

The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee spent three years investigating Russia's interference in the 2016 election and concluded that Trump welcomed and exploited Russian intervention, saying he would do it again if the opportunity presented itself.

"That could throw off any system," Lichtman said.

While his forecast this year could be wrong, Lichtman says it won’t deter him from predicting future U.S. presidents. However, he is looking for someone to take over the job.

"Yes, I will start again. If I'm wrong, I think nine [presidents] out of 10 is still good. But I'm 73 and I'm making a call out there for my successor, I can't keep doing this forever," he said.

Put DAT in your pipe and smoke it!