Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 29

[Emmaloucbway]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 1:13am

After seeing Beetlejuice tonight I've seen all the Broadway musicals this season, so I wanted to post my final predictions for the musical acting categories. 

Best Actor:
Brooks Ashmanskas - The Prom
Derrick Baskin - Ain't Too Proud 
Will Chase - Kiss Me, Kate
Damon Daunno - Oklahoma!
Santino Fontana - Tootsie (WIN) 

Best Actress:
Stephanie J. Block - The Cher Show (WIN)
Rebecca Naomi Jones - Oklahoma!
Beth Leavel - The Prom
Eva Noblezada - Hadestown 
Kelli O'Hara - Kiss Me, Kate 

Best Featured Actor:
John Behlmann - Tootsie
Patrick Page - Hadestown (WIN)
Andre de Shields - Hadestown
Ephraim Sykes - Ain't Too Proud 
Patrick Vaill - Oklahoma!
(If a 6th slot: Jarrod Spector - The Cher Show)

Best Featured Actress:
Amber Gray - Hadestown (WIN) 
Leslie Kritzer - Beetlejuice 
Sarah Stiles - Tootsie
Ali Stroker - Oklahoma!
Mary Testa - Oklahoma! 
(If a 6th slot: Stephanie Styles - Kiss Me, Kate) 

 

[Hot Pants]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 11:43am

Emmaloucbway said: "After seeing Beetlejuice tonight I've seen all the Broadway musicals this season, so I wanted to post my final predictions for the musical acting categories.

Best Actor:
Brooks Ashmanskas - The Prom
Derrick Baskin - Ain't Too Proud
Will Chase - Kiss Me, Kate
Damon Daunno - Oklahoma!
Santino Fontana - Tootsie (WIN)

Best Actress:
Stephanie J. Block - The Cher Show (WIN)
Rebecca Naomi Jones - Oklahoma!
Beth Leavel - The Prom
Eva Noblezada - Hadestown
Kelli O'Hara - Kiss Me, Kate

Best Featured Actor:
John Behlmann - Tootsie
Patrick Page - Hadestown (WIN)
Andre de Shields - Hadestown
Ephraim Sykes - Ain't Too Proud
Patrick Vaill - Oklahoma!
(If a 6th slot: Jarrod Spector - The Cher Show)

Best Featured Actress:
Amber Gray - Hadestown (WIN)
Leslie Kritzer - Beetlejuice
Sarah Stiles - Tootsie
Ali Stroker - Oklahoma!
Mary Testa - Oklahoma!
(If a 6th slot: Stephanie Styles - Kiss Me, Kate)

"

I agree with everything on this list except I have think Corbin Bleu in over Ephraim Sykes. Although I can easily see Bleu missing out

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 12:24pm

I just reread the new rules this morning. There will only be the allotted number of nominees this year, so no “6th slot.” There are new rules on tiebreakers during nominations.

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 2:26pm

Unless I’m reading it wrong, the 2019 rules state that if there is a two or three way tie ALL the candidates included in said tie will be nominated. There doesn’t appear to be a set number of nominees past the standard 5 or 4.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 2:44pm

So I just read through the rules (because they're finally posted!) And from my understanding that tie can only occur if it's the last spot of nominations, so if two or three people/productions tie for fourth/fifth place, per section 2.j.ii.B. There's a whole separate section on tie breaking via revoting which I assume must apply to if there are ties not for the last slot. Which honestly doesn't make much sense to have that at all but section 5.b clearly states the rules for a tiebreaker for nominations (unless they mean if it goes past a three way tie?). So can anyone clarify this?

Also it still states that the play/musical revival category is only separated automatically if there are at least three productions in each, which there aren't. And I don't think I saw a ruling saying they would separate it anyway, so is it a given that they will be combined or will they still be separated?

[MrJNLong]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 3:17pm

I'm interested to see what happens with Best Play and Best Musical this year since each will have 5 nominees. In both cases, those final slots will be interesting to see who the committee goes with.

For Musical, Hadestown, Tootsie & The Prom seem like shoe-ins. Ain't Too Proud is the likely 4th slot.  But the 5th? Something will get in that received multiple terrible reviews. Will it be Be More Chill? Beetlejuice? The Cher Show? Each has its handful of admirers, but most high-ups in the theatre community seem to not appreciate any of them. It seems like BMC has the best chances at this point.  However, I will go out on a limb to say that I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to boycott all 3 of these and instead throw a bone to Head Over Heels. But its times like these when I remember the year Leap of Faith got in, so who knows.

Best Play is a lot more exciting since there are so many worthy candidates (rather than having to decide which is the least bad, like the musicals).  The Ferryman, What the Constitution Means to Me, and To Kill a Mockingbird seem like the sure-bets here.  But which of the other well-reviewed plays will get the other 2 slots? Ink? Choir Boy? Network? Hillary & Clinton? And you can't really count out Gary since the reviews were so polarizing and the nominating committee is such a small group. There might be enough people in that group that loved it enough to get it a nomination. Personally, I am predicting Choir Boy & Ink.  Although I almost said Network instead of Ink. This one is tough. I also want to give a shout-out to Lifespan of a Fact which I think should be mentioned alongside the other 8 plays already mentioned here even though I don't think it will be nominated.

Updated On: 4/28/19 at 03:17 PM

[VotePeron]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 3:23pm

I can't imagine Be More Chill not getting the fifth Best Musical nomination slot. It's practically Hamilton next to Cher Show, Beetlejuice, and Kong.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 3:31pm

This is what is stated in the rules after a tiebreak vote among tied candidates for nomination:

“The candidate(s) with the highest number of such votes among those tied shall receive the nomination(s), until there is no longer a tie necessitating more than the prescribed number of nominees. If any of those tied have the same number of such votes (e.g., if there are three candidates, the same number of “3” votes), the Accounting Firm shall then determine which of said candidates received the highest number of votes in the second heaviest weighing category (e.g., if there are three candidates, the “2” votes, and so on), in which event the candidate with the highest number of such votes shall receive the nomination.”

Which, to me, sounds like they will not have more than five (or four for those with less than 9 candidates) nominees per category.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 3:36pm

But it's also mentioned that in the case of ties for the last slot then both or all three will be nominated, which leads to the possibility of a sixth or even seventh slot for certain categories (apologies for formatting, I'm on mobile):

(j) Determination of Eligible Candidates for Nomination.

i) The Tony Awards Administration Committee shall submit to the Nominating Committee (as described in paragraph 5 herein) a list of the eligible candidates for nomination in each Award category. The Tony Awards Administration Committee shall determine whether a sufficient number of eligible candidates exist in quality or quantity to merit the granting of an Award in the applicable category for the current season. If there is only one such eligible candidate for any category, the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall submit such candidate to the Nominating Committee pursuant to paragraph 4(b) below.

ii) There shall be no more than four nominees in each category; provided;

(A) If there are at least nine eligible candidates for nomination in any of the 26 established competitive categories, then there shall be five nominees in that category.

(B) In the event that there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations in any of the 26 established competitive categories, both or all three of those candidates shall be nominated.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 3:42pm

That’s a little contradictory, ha!

[Hot Pants]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 5:20pm

What are some of the plays that could potentially get nominated for best score?

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 5:22pm

Hot Pants said: "What are some of the plays that could potentially get nominated for best score?"

To Kill a Mockingbird, The Waverly Gallery, King Lear, Ink, Choir Boy, Gary

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 5:35pm

It seems like they change these rules pretty much at will, so I wouldn’t be surprised for well, something surprising about the nominee count in certain categories.

Updated On: 4/28/19 at 05:35 PM

[Ourtime992]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 5:38pm

It would be surprising but not totally shocking if the nominators went with something like Mockingbird (with its 38 cues) over a 4th musical score. Hadestown, Tootsie, and the Prom are shoo-ins, but the other eligible scores were ravaged by critics, except Be More Chill which many shrugged at and said it just wasn't their thing. BMC is still the most likely 4th slot there, but I'd be less surprised to see Mockingbird recognized than I would be to see them nominate Beetlejuice, King Kong, Pretty Woman, or GTBBT.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 5:47pm

Would we get five nominees for score because including the play scores there are technically more than 9 eligible?

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 6:10pm

There are definitely more than 9 eligible scores if you include the plays, so yes, we should have 5 nominees.

I certainly hope they nominate more than 1 play, because I think the original music in this year’s plays far outranks this year’s musical theatre scores in quality.

I’m not exactly sure what the situation is with Choir Boy. There are two people credited with writing original music, but I thought a lot of the musical numbers were just re-arranged versions of existing spiritual songs. I’m unfamiliar with the genre, so I don’t know if there was enough new music to make it eligible. But I guess since the haven’t made an announcement disqualifying it, we should assume that, since they are credited with original music, they’ll be elligble (unless I’m misinterpreting the rules?) And if they are eligible, I really hope they get nominated!

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 6:34pm

I too thought the music in Choir Boy was just a cappella arrangements of spirituals, but the committee didn’t say anything disqualifying it, so I assume it’s eligible.

I hope The Waverly Gallery gets in for score. Those cues were beautiful, along with the accompanying projections.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 7:13pm

I’m really thinking that 5th slot for best Play is between Network and Choir Boy for sure. I lean towards Choir Boy though, which is so exciting!

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 7:35pm

Mike Barrett said: "I’m really thinking that 5th slot for best Play is between Network and Choir Boy for sure. I lean towards Choir Boy though, which is so exciting!"

What are your first 4 - Mockingbird, Ferryman, Constitution, and Ink? 

NETWORK getting shut out could be the surprise of the season, though I don't know if the runner-up would be Hillary or Choir Boy? From a writing standpoint, NETWORK is the Paddy Chayefsky screenplay almost verbatim, which to me is a detractor. The production is a lot, and not everyone loved it; Cranston's basically the best thing about it.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 7:43pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "I’m really thinking that 5th slot for best Play is between Network and Choir Boy for sure. I lean towards Choir Boy though, which is so exciting!"

What are your first 4 -Mockingbird, Ferryman, Constitution, and Ink?

NETWORK getting shut out could be the surprise of the season, though I don't know if the runner-up would be Hillary or Choir Boy?From a writing standpoint, NETWORK is the Paddy Chayefsky screenplay almost verbatim, which to me is a detractor. The production is alot,and not everyone loved it; Cranston's basically the best thing about it."

Yes sorry, those are my 4. Network won’t get shut out, I’d be floored if Cranston isn’t nominated and that would be the biggest snub the entire awards. His performance was tremendous. Hillary and Clinton I can’t see getting much at all minus Metcalf. Frankly she could be the only nominee for that show. I much preferred Choir Boy 

[victoriafr]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 7:44pm

Network getting shut out would definitely be very surprising, and I don't think it'll happen. But if it were to, I think the play replacing it would definitely be Choir Boy; it seems like that got much better reviews and was more well received than Hillary and Clinton.

[woeisme3]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:11pm

Didn’t Network get VERY mixed reviews? I don’t see it as a shoo in at all, I think Choir Boy, Hillary And Clinton, and even Gary have a better chance at a Best Play nomination.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:27pm

Since The Waverly Gallery played off broadway and will be in the Revival category, shouldn’t Choir Boy be too? I believe it played off broadway a few years ago. I’m just confused on the rulings

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:35pm

There's some ruling that says if a show has become "culturally relevant" then it can count as a revival even if it's never been on Broadway I believe.  Other past cases were Asassins and Caroline or Change (not sure of any other plays off the top of my head), so I guess Choir Boy being too recent is part of it, especially since I think this production retained a lot of the same cast so it's more of a Broadway transfer than a revival.

[Zion24]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:43pm

woeisme3 said: "Didn’t Network get VERY mixed reviews? I don’t see it as a shoo in at all."

Network got mostly positive reviews, I thought, but I sure hope it isnt in the conversation for Best Play. I thought INK and CHOIR BOY had their problems (the former bored me to death, the latter was predictable but lifted to great heights by brilliant performances) but NETWORK was offensively bad. Yes, Cranston was fantastic, but I'm almost insulted at the notion (peddled by Brantley) that we can forgive such a horrible script and boring experience because they hired a genius to say some of it. 

Having seen WHAT THE CONSTITUTION MEANS TO ME tonight, I definitely hope it is in the Tony conversation, though it really felt more like a "special event" to me- though I have no idea how that works re Tony rules. I really liked it, and Heidi Schreck is clearly brilliant and charming, but it felt like a beautifully personal stand-up routine/ law school lecture. Hard to think of her along the same lines as Sorkin or Metcalf, if that makes any sense? Just not sure what dictates a production into that "special category"....?