Brantley and Green's WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN 2019

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JBroadway
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This is the 5th year in a row that the Best Musical frontrunner has been a show that transferred from off-Broadway, and leans more on the serious, and/or “artsy” side

And in each of those seasons except 2016, it seemed like another show - usually one that seemed more commercially palatable - was gaining momentum (An American in Paris, Come From Away, Spongebob/Mean Girls), largely due to the fact that the off-Broadway transfer was not eligible for the precursor awards. And so people predicted that the front runner might actually lose.

And yet in the past 4 years, the “serious off-Broadway transfer” has still won. I think this will be exactly the same.
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bdn223 said: "My qualms withHadestownare its producers, who I overheard discussing their awards campaign and competition in the lobby of the Kerr while I was purchasing tickets before it opened. They were openly trashing other shows, and were making the argument thatHadestownis high art and can't be judged, whileevery other musical that opened is commercial trash. It simply rubbed me the wrong way, and definitely clouded my judgment when I saw the show. It didn't help that the show increased their standard ticket prices post opening to $249. I honestly just don't want to reward greed.Tootsieand The Prom'sproducers may be just as bad, but I didn't experience it."

From what I've heard, I think the producers of Hadestown are getting very overconfident in their Tony win and wrongly assuming that there's absolutely no competition for them.  It will be very interesting to see how this turns out, because there are a lot of people who liked Tootsie and The Prom better (even if they're not "high art"--although, frankly, adapting 2 paragraphs of thousands of years old Greek mythology isn't exactly high art either).  And I also think there's a sense that voters are being told they have to vote for Hadestown because it's the artistic show, which could hugely backfire and convince those voters to vote for the show they enjoyed the best instead.  So it will be very interesting to see.  Hadestown is definitely the frontrunner, but it's in absolutely no way a lock.

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SomethingPeculiar said: "Those conversations happen behind closed doors for every show. It's a catty industry, and everyone wants to return their investors' money."

I get that fact, as I said Tootsie and The Prom's producers might be just as bad. My issue was doing it openly in the lobby of the theater where several people were trying to buy tickets. If they were doing it at a restaurant over a business meal (which i have encountered before weirdly enough with the producers of Rock of Ages, where they were discussing the headache that Amy Spanger was causing), it'd be a different story. This was not a formal meeting, and it was just seemed in such poor taste. Its like trashing a coworker or your boss, in a packed elevator. You don't do it because you don't know whose listening. I should also mention that the reason why the producers were there was that opening night tickets were just delivered to the box office, so everyone involved in the production, or invited guests were there picking up tickets. I would understand if they were just tooting their own horn, and hopes that the Tony Awards go their way, as this was the culmination of nearly a decade of work. It just rubbed me the wrong way that they were trashing other shows, in such a nonchalant fashion. Do it at in a private space, not a public one.

Updated On: 5/14/19 at 12:43 PM
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bdn223 said: "I get that fact, as I said Tootsie and The Prom's producers might be just as bad.  My issue was doing it openly in the lobby of the theater..."

Just out of curiosity, what tipped you off that they were producers as opposed to investors or fans?  Were they the lead producers?

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Still holding out hope for a long shot Constitution best play win. 

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It's hard for me to get riled up about producer hubris in private or public if it's not something actually egregious or hurtful like Rudin shutting down community theatre productions of a different adaptation of Mockingbird. 

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
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TFMH18 said: "Still holding out hope for a long shot Constitution best play win."

With Mockingbird out of the picture id think this is #2. Pure speculation but thats my guess. 

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Also, how does voting work for best musical/best play? Is it like the oscars where they rank them or are they simply voting for who they believe should be awarded? 

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I've heard producers and actors and writers trash other shows in public all the time.

This is Hadestown's year. The other nominees just aren't of the same quality. I don't think Tootsie or The Prom stand a chance. In fact, I think these predictions are super out of touch.

Also, I'm shocked by the overwhelming love for Carmen Jones which I thought was a total, half-baked, paper-thin, mess.
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Mike Barrett said: "Also, how does voting work for best musical/best play? Is it like the oscars where they rank them or are they simply voting for who they believe should be awarded?"

It's just 1 vote, not a preferential ballot like the Oscars.

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Warbucks2 said: "bdn223 said: "I get that fact, as I saidTootsieandThe Prom's producers might be just as bad.My issue was doing it openly in the lobby of the theater..."

Just out of curiosity, what tipped you off that they were producers as opposed to investors or fans? Were they the lead producers?
"

They were not lead producers, or at least I am assuming they weren't, as lead producers likely wouldn't be picking up their opening night tickets at the box office.  They were talking about producing the show, the journey, dealing with so many investors, and investing groups. The amount of money one of them spent, compared to others... what investors expected in return vs what they got. It was just over all a really stupid conversation to have in the lobby of the theater. 

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"I agree. Has the NYT ever had a female theater critic? "

I thought the woman (Elisabeth Vincentelli) who did the reviews for the NY Post for years was hired by the NY Times.

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Elisabeth Vincentelli works freelance, and sometimes the NYTimes asks her to review things that are on Broadway but aren't really musicals or plays (ie. Home for the Holidays).

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Laura Collins-Hughes, Alexis Soloski, and Elisabeth Vincentelli contribute reviews and features for the Times, but they're "second-stringers" or freelancers. To my knowledge, the Times has never had a female (or person of color) as the Chief Theatre Critic.

Updated On: 5/14/19 at 01:10 PM
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SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "Also, how does voting work for best musical/best play? Is it like the oscars where they rank them or are they simply voting for who they believe should be awarded?"

It's just 1 vote, not a preferential ballot like the Oscars.
"

Good to know, thanks. I think Hadestown wins in that kind of scenario. If it was preferential, id see almost everyone having Tootsie or The Prom as their #2, so it'd just depend on how many people rank hadestown #1, or 3 or lower. If they ranked them lower, the consistency of having Tootsie or Prom towards the top could push it over, but I can't see it happening with just the 1 vote. 

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A preferential ballot for Best Musical could be disastrously bad for smaller/less commercial shows. With a preferential ballot, Beautiful wins over Gents Guide, Newsies wins over Once, American In Paris wins over Fun Home, etc. (since about half the voters are producers/theatre owners/road presenters).

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Wick3 said: "Kad said: "In a year with very, very few obvious frontrunners, I'm taking the predictions of these two fairly out of touch guys with a larger grain of salt than usual."

I agree. Has the NYT ever had a female theater critic?
"

Great question. I don't think a lead or co-lead on that JD. Makes me thing how Scott Heller and the NYT's has a problem on their bench too. Myopic to bash the gender of politics of the Great White Way without establishing their lack of success and equity in the reviewing ranks. Dance - yes. Style - yes. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/theater/broadway-musicals-gender-politics.html

A lover of theater for decades. Teacher by day. Family man by night. See more theater than most, oftentimes a hesitant plus one.
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They both seemed to be pretty much in agreement.

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bdn223 said: "They do make a good point about Hadestown,which many reviews highlighted, but didn't emphasize. Its Chavkin's direction that hides the clear flaws ofHadestown, where Orpheus and Eurydice have no character arcs throughout the show despite being the the shows protagonists. Orpheus is simply charming, and Eurydice simply wants to be free of struggle. The later does have some emotional struggle, but it amounts nothing by the plots conclusion. The secondary couple ofHades and Persephone, actually do have character arcs, and should be the shows leading couple, but are relegated to secondary characters... simply because its an adaptation of "Orpheus and Eurydice". Tootsie on the other hand has the exact opposite problem where the book and score work despite a mediocre and boring direction by Scott Ellis. I think the argument they are making is similar to theLion KingvsRagtimedebate asRagtimeis the better musical on paper, butLion Kingis the better production. They thinkTootsieis theRagtime, but as history showsLion Kingwill likely win.

My qualms withHadestownare its producers, who I overheard discussing their awards campaign and competition in the lobby of the Kerr while I was purchasing tickets before it opened. They were openly trashing other shows, and were making the argument thatHadestownis high art and can't be judged, whileevery other musical that opened is commercial trash. It simply rubbed me the wrong way, and definitely clouded my judgment when I saw the show. It didn't help that the show increased their standard ticket prices post opening to $249. I honestly just don't want to reward greed.Tootsieand The Prom'sproducers may be just as bad, but I didn't experience it.
"

They're both rich shows honestly - Hadestown + Tootsie. I had a better time at Tootsie, is how I judge it. I liked Hadestown staging, and direction but found other elements less inspired. I get and value both though. Will be a lively TONY broadcast!

A lover of theater for decades. Teacher by day. Family man by night. See more theater than most, oftentimes a hesitant plus one.
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Would the voters give the best score Tony to Yazbek two years in a row?  I found the Tootsie score to be weak and would rank it behind The Prom.  Of course, Hadestown gets my vote.

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I still expect Bertie Carvel to win for Ink, but Im surprised he seems like such a lock for these two. Ive heard Uranowitz and Walker are both fantastic. Still upset about no one from the Ferryman for supporting actor. 

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I haven't read what either of these two esteemed sages wrote. Bad for the digestion, blood pressure, and everything else that keeps a person healthy and smiling.

But I am filled with dread at the dreadest prospect of them all: wins by both the screed and its author.

The agenda crowd never misses an opportunity to reward its darlings, and this would be a double whammy. 

 

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Seems like many people did not really enjoy Hadestown all that much. Did anybody here LOVE it? Seems a lot of people loved The Prom and Tootsie.

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I LOVED Hadestown. Pretty much hated The Prom and was incredibly disappointed by Tootsie. Most people I interact with LOVED Hadestown and were amused by the other two.
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Good to hear- I was very impressed by the reviews when it came out- and I really do not love the jukebox musicals and most comedies- I love drama and serious theater with a message I can think about- have my Hadestown tickets and hope I love it.