What is this year's Post Tony Flop?

[jagfkb]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:10pm

2004 had Assassins, 2005 had La Cage, 2007 had Company, 2008 had Cry Baby, and 2009 had Guys & Dolls. What do you think will close almost immediately after the Tonys? If anything, I'd place my bet on Come Fly Away/ Million Dollar Quartet closing... after their numbers this week, I could easily see both closing. What do you guys think?

[Mark_E]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:11pm

Definitely Million Dollar Quartet.

[ljay889]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:13pm

Assassins was a limited Roundabout run. They only canceled their extension like Bye Bye Birdie did earlier this year. I don't think it should count.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:18pm

If it loses Best Play, NEXT FALL.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:19pm

Based on the numbers, maybe Million Dollar Quartet, but I don't know how much it costs to run the show. Come Fly Away just had is second best week since opening and is over $800k again. I'm not sure that's indicative of it closing in a month.

[Justaguy2]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:24pm

MDQ is the most likely. In spite of it announcing ticket sales into the fall, the box office is not good. Could it pull an Enron and close before the Tonys? They can't think they have a shot at Best Musical and if the nom doesn't translate into box office might they pull the plug?

[James885]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 4:28pm

Million Dollar Quartet may very well turn out to be this year's Cry Baby.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 5:40pm

Honestly, if Memphis doesn't pick up major awards, it will be gone soon. 69% attendance and $575K in grosses is on the low end for an original musical that just cleaned up the Tony nominations the week before. A score win won't do it a lot of good. Unless it wins Best Musical (which I still think it will), it will be gone before the end of the year I think.

[ljay889]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 5:42pm

^ I agree. Memphis is not even grossing 50% of it's potential gross right now. But I am sure Waymon_Wong will be here soon to tell us that they are doing FINE and STEADY business!!!!!!!!

[ColorTheHours048]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 7:38pm

Tony nominations were JUST announced. The turnaround for MEMPHIS wouldn't be that quick. It'll do just fine come summer. It's a tourist hit.

[averagebwaynut]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 8:17pm

Even if MDQ closes, I don't think it can be counted in the same league as "Cry-Baby" or "Guys & Dolls". a) Because the show was significantly cheaper to put up so while a flop is a flop is a flop in general, this would be a far less monumental flop if it were to close this early. b) the show was a hit in Chicago so in theory, it has made some money for its producers already and is likely to have a very healthy life for decades to come in stock & amateur productions (unlike "Cry-Baby" given its R-rating).

"Come Fly Away" might be more on par with "Cry-Baby", though it too was quite a bit cheaper to put up and likely cheaper to operate as well.

Does anyone know if "Memphis" has returned anything to its investors yet? I know it has had profitable weeks, but it has had loss weeks as well and they've likely sunk a fair chunk of money into additional advertising.

[Hokosho2]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 9:43pm

Yes MDQ it is so like Jersey Boys its not funny and everyone likes Jersey Boys . THe tony will go to Memphis I just love memphis.

[Justaguy2]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 10:22pm

With all due respect to those involved, MDQ can't be compared to Jersey Boys. The only similarity is that both shows involve the story of real musicians using the music of those musicians in simulated performance. Jersey Boys tells the story in a highly produced, theatrical way which is polished and inventive and most importantly, compelling. Except for the final, over the top 15 minutes (which suddenly becomes a Vegas "Legends of Rock and Roll" show), MDQ is four impersonators playing famous songs (quite well for the most part I might add) on a unit set with a thin book stringing them together. Not done in a particularly inventive, creative, or interesting way. For that matter, it's not even historically accurate. The truth is that the majority of the songs in the show were never actually recorded on the famous day they are celebrating. People keep comparing the shows. To me, there is no comparison. One is a musical; the other is little more than a tribute band.

[bethnor]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:11pm

i'm not sure it's apt to compare any of the shows in question to cry-baby.

https://www.broadwayworld.com/grossesshow.cfm?show=CRY%20BABY

[WithoutATrace]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:16pm

I have a horrible feeling that it's going to be ALNM...

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:23pm

^Oh it will ABSOLUTELY be Night Music if they don't get good replacements for Angela and Catherine. But that's regardless of the Tonys. If they announced tomorrow that two Broadway people were replacing them and not two stars, I would expect a closing notice to go up pretty soon.

[WithoutATrace]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:39pm

If ALNM does close on June 20, I can't imagine the producers officially announcing that until after June 13.

I already think LA CAGE is going to win Best Revival of a Musical, but if ALNM announces it is closing on June 20 soon, it could negatively affect any votes that would be cast for the show.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:40pm

bethnor, those numbers are downright depressing. Average ticket prices? My goodness, did the entire non-audience rush the show?

~Steven

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:50pm

Sorry WAT... to clarify, I meant they might as well post a notice backstage. I didn't mean they would send out a press release.

[ljay889]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:54pm

I wonder how close ALNM is to recouping? I'd say pretty close, right?
If they do recoup by June 20th, I would suggest try running through the summer with two established Broadway names, and then see if CZJ and Angela would return in the Fall for about 3 months.
Updated On: 5/10/10 at 11:54 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 5/10/10 at 11:58pm

They need to announce something soon either way. It's getting very close to that deadline. No news sounds suspiciously like they're trying to keep bad news from Tony voters or that they're going to weigh options based on the results. It would be a shame though, I hope they figure something out for everyone's sake.

~Steven

[BroadwayBound115]

Posted: 5/11/10 at 12:07am

If my numbers were correct. Memphis was a 12-14 million dollar investment. I estimated the running costs at 500k. As of now it has about a 2.3 million dollar profit, and has been running for 33 weeks, so I would say this show has to continue its consistent business for another year for it to recoup. I don't think this will close after the Tony's. I do feel like A Little Night Music will be in danger once the summer is finished if they do not find good replacements.

[averagebwaynut]

Posted: 5/11/10 at 12:56am

I'd be quite surprised if "Memphis"'s minimum weekly operating costs were only $500K -- with that size cast, the running crew likely required to manipulate the physical production, dress the cast, the theatre deal for the Shubert, and especially the amount of advertising they're been doing, I have to believe it's at least $550K and perhaps even closer to $600K.

Either way, even if you're numbers were spot-on, it's unlikely that the show has returned more than 10% of its capitalization and I daresay, even if it wins the Tony, I think there's still a better than average chance it could be gone by Labor Day. I'm not hoping for that at all, but such are the harsh realities.

[CyCoSpAz2]

Posted: 5/11/10 at 2:27am

Million Dollar Quartet and Next Fall

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 5/13/10 at 9:30pm

I think Come Fly Away will still do well through the summer. They are clearly breaking even by having around $700,000 or more each week. The attendance is a bit weak but it's a big theater. They clearly have an audience and two huge names attached.


MDQ will be gone.