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Who's the Best Guesser? Check The New York Times' Tony Prediction Track Records

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The theatre critics for the New York Times have perhaps the most influential and respected voices when it comes to Broadway. Every awards season they come up with a list of Tony nominees who they think will win and should win the coveted prize in June. Click here to check out Ben Brantley and Jesse Green's predictions for this year.

But the real question is... how have they done at predicting Tony winners in years past? Check out how Brantley and his ex-co-critics, Jesse Green and Charles Isherwood compared in their predictions from the last six years.


New York Times Tony Awards Predictions

2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Average
Accuracy
Ben
Brantley
Will
Win
10/16

14/16

10/16

11/16

7/16 9/16 64%
Should Win 8/16 13/16 12/16 8/16 5/14* 6/16 55%
Jesse
Green
Will Win 12/16 - - - - - 75%
Should
Win
9/16 - - - - - 56%
Charles Isherwood Will
Win
-

13/16

8/16 11/16 10/16 12/16 68%
Should
Win
- 9/16 3/16 8/16 9/16 10/16 49%

*In two categories Brantley had "no preference".

Theater Fans' Choice Awards
2026 Theater Fans' Choice Awards - Live Stats
Best Original Score - Top 3
1. The Rescues , The Rescues - The Lost Boys
41.7% of votes
2. Jim Barne, Kit Buchan - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
28.2% of votes
3. Cinco Paul - Schmigadoon!
22.8% of votes

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