My long considered TONY PREDICTIONS for non tech awards; Fire away

[theplaysthething]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 4:58pm

Now that the OCC, Drama League, and DD are in the ether...I thought I'd take a stab at predicting the Tony noms and winners. I have put an asterix to my choice for winner. I know there are tons of threads like this, so I apologize if this is redundant, I just wanted to have some fun. I pooped out by the time I got to the technical awards so these are the first group at least.

Best New Play
Coast of Utopia*
Frost/Nixon
Radio Golf
Little Dog Laughed
(While I personally think Frost/Nixon should win, it's hard to vote against 9 hours of Stoppard. I also know that a lot of folks will be up in arms over Coram Boy's omission...I have a sneaking feeling critics will be very split.)

Best New Musical
Grey Gardens
Spring Awakening*
LoveMusik
Curtains
(The most audacious and ground breaking of the lot. A fantastic evening in the theater with a great score by Sheik. I don't think anything else is close.)

Revival Play
Journey's End*
Inherit the Wind
Translations
Moon for the misbegotten
(Journey's End. No quesetion. None. Super!)

Revival Musical
Apple Tree
A Chorus Line
Company*
Les Miserables
(lots of good options, but Company is the most original reimaging of the lot and Raul turns in a Tony worthy performance at the center.)

Actor Musical
Michael Cerveris
Raul Esparza*
Gavin Lee
David Hyde Pierce
John Gallagher Jr.
(Too much heat to lose. I think John Gallagher should win, but I don't think anyone has a shot but Raul)

Actress Musical
Kristin Chenowith
Donna Murphy
Christine Ebersole*
Audra McDonald
Laura Bell Bundy
(Give it to her now. Christine Ebersole despite all the hoo-ha at GG is giving one of the best performances I've ever seen.)

Actor Play
Frank Langella (F/N)*
Christopher Plummer (Inherit the Wind)
Liev Schreiber (Talk Radio)
Boyd Gaines (Journey's End)
Brian O' Byrne (Coast of Utopia)
(Tough year for leading men, but nobody comes close to Frank Langella as Nixon. It's hard to bet against Plummer, but Langella is just too awesome this year for Liev and Plummer to catch)

Actress Play
Eve Best* (moon)
Angela Lansbury* (deuce)
Vanessa Redgrave (year of magical thinking)
Julie White (little dog)
Swoosie Kurtz (heartbreak house)
(tough category. Had Little Dog's timing been different I'd have easily given it to Julie White. Eve Best is the only good thing about "Moon" and she is very good. That being said, with all the negative buzz on Deuce, if Angela can save it in the press, she might become a sentimental favorite.)

Supporting Male Play
Billy Crudup (Coast of Utopia)*
Stephen Kunken (Frost/Nixon)
Anthony Chisholm (Radio Golf)
John Mahoney (Prelude to a Kiss)
Stark Sands (Journey's End)
(Lots of good work here. I haven't seen "Radio Golf" but hear Anthony Chisholm is very good. Stephen Kunken is excellent as the catalyst/narrator for F/N, and Stark Sands is heart breaking in JE. Still the nod goes to the 9 HOURS of STOPPARD and Billy's incredible transformation from hottie to nebish.)

Supporting Female Play

Martha Plimpton (Coast)*
Tonya Pinkins (Radio Golf)
Jennifer Ehle (Coast)
Xanthe Elbrick (Coram Boy)
Jan Maxwell (Coram Boy)
(Not a really strong year for female support roles. I haven't seen Tonya in Radio Golf, but she is always fantastic and the pre-buzz bares that out. I think Martha gets caught in the coat tails of Coast.)

Supporting Male Musical
Jason Daniely, Curtains
Mark Kudisch, The Apple Tree
David Pittu, LoveMusik*
Jason Tam, A Chorus Line
Aaron Lazar, Les Miserables
(lots of big voices, but only really one great acting performance in my opinion and that is Pittu. Also supposedly a great human being.)

Supporting Female Musical
Charlotte D'Amboise-Chorus Line
Debra Monk, Curtains*
Orfeh, Legally Blonde
Barbara Walsh, Company
Karen Ziemba, Curtains
(I'm guessing the producers are going to try and put Monk in the best supporting, which is where she will have the best shot at stealing the gold from a talented field.)

Direction Musical
Michael Greif-GG
Michael Mayer-Spring Awakening*
Harold Prince-LoveMusik
John Doyle- Company
(SA is the most dazzling of the group. He really gets everything right in SA and does it with young kids which is extra tough. IT's a hard year, but I'm very happy for Jerry Mitchell stepping into the ranks of this group.

Director of a Play
Jack O'Brien, Coast of Utopia*
Michael Grandage, Frost/Nixon
David Grindley, Journey's End
Melly Still, Coram Boy
(The acheivement of COU is too grand and Jack manages to do something they couldn't acheive in London, keep the proceedings moving. It's visually stunning and nuanced. A great piece of direction that covers the flaws of the script)

Best Score
Nell Benjamin, Laurence O'Keefe, Legally Blonde
Michael Korie, Scott Frankel, Grey Gardens
John Kander, Fred Ebb, Curtains
Duncan Sheik, Stephen Sater, Spring Awakening*
(I don't think anyone is close. Love this musical and love the music)

Best Book
Rupert Holmes and Peter Stone, Curtains
Stephen Sater, Spring Awakening
Alfred Uhry, LoveMusik
Doug Wright, Grey Gardens*
(Some uuber talents here. I give the nod to Doug Wright this is the one place I think Grey Gardens really shines and give Christine fuel.)

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, Curtains
Matthew Bourne; Stephen Mear, Mary Poppins
Bill T. Jones, Spring Awakening
Jerry Mitchell, Legally Blonde*




Updated On: 4/27/07 at 04:58 PM

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:00pm

If the producers petitioned Monk to be featured - Wouldn't we know by now? I think all nomination rulings are done.

[MungoGypsy8232]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:10pm

ummm, John Gallagher Jr. is in the featured category and Debra Monk is in the leading category...also, you lack 110 in the Shade where you placed Les Mis. Other than that, pretty good!

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:12pm

Monk will be featured.

D'Amboise has no chance at a nom. You also left out Mary Louise Wilson from GG for Featured Actress, and she is a lock. Her reviews were glowing.

Gallagher Jr. is featured.

I don't think SA will win Best Musical. If the Musical nominations turn out the way you've predicted them, Curtains will win. I think it's the most tourable of the bunch.
However, if Blonde is nominated, it will win. That will tour amzingly.

I think 110 in the Shade will take Les Mis' spot, and will most likely win.

Well, you said fire away.

[defyingravity11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:14pm

Les Miz and A Chorus Line over 110 in the Shade?

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:14pm

Actually, I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure that there is one last set of rulings coming out right before the Tony nods are announced.
Expect Monk to be considered leading though.

[MungoGypsy8232]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:15pm

yeah, and correct if I'm wrong (it was posted on a thread somewhere) that its past the 'point of no return' for Monk to be considered featured (two week limit petitition?)? Or am I just stupid?
Updated On: 4/27/07 at 05:15 PM

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:29pm

I don't remember the timing of the rules. I am one of Monk's biggest fans on this site, however, I don't feel it's right for the producers to petition to have her in the Featured Category, even though I realize that's the only chance she has to walk home with a statuette this year.

She's above the title - you can't have it both ways. Or at least, you shouldn't be able to.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:29pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Gallagher is featured and each of the non-acting categories have 4 nominees, not 5.

[theplaysthething]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:33pm

You are absolutely right about Mary Louise Wilson. She is totally a lock. I was cross referencing lists from OCC and DD and completely forgot about MLW. I hope the Tony's don't make the same mistake. : )

With that addition, I think you are probably right...Charlotte D doesn't have a shot.

[husk_charmer]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:40pm

"Spring Awakening" has little chance of anything other than Supporting Actor.

This years two heaviest major awards contenders will be "Curtains" and "Legally Blonde." "Curtains" has the sentimentality of Kander and Ebb, and David Hyde Pierce was BORN to this role. He WILL have the Tony. "Legally Blonde" is a suprisingly tight show, with fabulous direction/choreography, a solid score, and a good cast.

"Les Miserables" will probably NOT get the nom, and "110 in the Shade" will take it's place. Charlotte D'Amboise stands LITTLE chance, as she was almost universally panned. If anyone from "A Chorus Line" gets it, it will be either Jason Tam or Natalie Cortez. And of all the shows, my bet to win, will be either "A Chorus Line" or "110 in the Shade." "Company" while an interesting production lacks the charm, warmth and acting skills from the majority of the cast to make it even remotely enjoyable. Raul was just as cold as the ice cubes they were standing on.

Just my $.02

[jg4892]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:47pm

I think Raul and Christine have the tonys. I really think Spring Awakening will get best musical, and it's not just because I love the show. People love a success story of the little show that could, and it would be a shame to pass along something revolutionary in favor of another show, even if it is good and tourable. I know that's not always how it works, but I have a gut feeling that SA will win.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:49pm

People may root for "The Little Show That Could" but that doesn't mean it will win Best Musical.

Take a look at the last ten years of the Tonys. Almost EVERY show that won was the most commercial of the bunch. It's not fair, but that's how it works most of the time. It's politics.

[LuPonatic]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:51pm

I agree with every word you wrote, husk_charmer. That might be a first! :O)

[jg4892]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:52pm

Yes wonderfulwizard, but it's not unheard of. Avenue Q anyone? Who's to say it one happen again next year. It's the new Rent. People love anything that is hailed as the new Rent.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:54pm

The "little show that could" this year is Curtains. Two of the writers died before they made it to Broadway. Spring Awakening played to sold-out houses at the Atlantic, got great reviews, and was no surprise when it came to Broadway. Curtains has had a much more questionable future even when it came to a mere production.

Spring Awakening so far hasn't proven itself in any way, shape, or form. The best reviewed musical of the season, it SHOULD be selling out every night of the week. Then, it would be the "little show that could." Now, it's just the "little show that's playing to mediocre-sized audiences."

Regarding the female acting awards, there's no question that Christine Ebersole and Mary Louise Wilson have them in the bag. When it comes to male acting awards, I'd give 'em to Martin Short (who was better than every other leading man this season) and Bobby Stieggart.
Updated On: 4/27/07 at 05:54 PM

[theplaysthething]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:55pm

This is fun. I went back and changed my non acting awards to reflect the 4 instead of 5 nominees. I disagree with you about Company. While I thought David Hyde Pierce was brilliant and funny and now actually has a Broadway pedigree, I think that Raul has it locked up. His love letter from Brantley is not going to hurt.

[theaterdude87]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:56pm

Husk I agree with what you said 100%.

[bob8rich]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:57pm

I just returned home from a visit to New York and I saw all the MUSICALS that will be in the running for the Tonys (apart from The Apple Tree, which has of course already closed). Here are my choices for nominations for the major awards with asterisked choices of winners. (Note - these are the shows/people I think deserve to be nominated/win, rather than those I think WILL be nominated and/or win. I will not attempt to predict what the actual decisions will be.) As I have not seent he plays in contention, I have not included them.

BEST BOOK
*Alfred Uhry - LOVEMUSIK
Rupert Holmes - CURTAINS
Steven Sater - SPRING AWAKENING
Doug Wright - GREY GARDENS

BEST SCORE
*Duncan Sheik/Steven Sater - SPRING AWAKENING
John Kander/Fred Ebb/Rupert Holmes - CURTAINS
Lawrence O'Keefe/Nell Benjamin - LEGALLY BLONDE
Scott Frankel/Michael Korrie - GREY GARDENS

BEST DIRECTOR
*John Doyle - COMPANY
Hal Prince - LOVEMUSIK
Michael Mayer - SPRING AWAKENING
Jerry Mitchell - LEGALLY BLONDE

BEST ACTRESS
*Donna Murphy- LOVEMUSIK (the best perfromance by an actress in a musical I have EVER seen. If she does not win there is no god! lol))
Laura Bell Bundy - LEGALLY BLONDE
Audra MacDonald - 110 IN THE SHADE
Stephanie J. Block - THE PIRATE QUEEN
Chrstine Ebersole - GREY GARDENS

BEST ACTOR
*Raul Esparza - COMPANY
Michael Cerveris - LOVEMUSIK
David Hyde Pierce - CURTAINS
Jonathon Groff - SPRING AWAKENING
Gavin Lee - MARY POPPINS

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Karen Ziemba - CURTAINS
Barbara Walsh - COMPANY
Mary Louise Wilson - GREY GARDENS
Kate Shindle - LEGALLY BLONDE
Debra Monk - CURTAINS (I think her role should be considered as "supporting", though - as she is billed above the title - I think it will probably be classed as a "leading" role.)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*John Gallagher - SPRING AWAKENING
David Pittu - LOVEMUSIK
Christian Borle - LEGALLY BLONDE
Jason Daniely - CURTAINS
Bobby Steggart - 110 IN THE SHADE

BEST REVIVAL
*COMPANY
110 IN THE SHADE
A CHORUS LINE
LES MISERABLES

BEST NEW MUSICAL
*SPRING AWAKENING
CURTAINS
GREY GARDENS
LEGALLY BLONDE

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:58pm

Rent was also in a weak season where it's biggest competition was "Bring in Da Noise Bring in Da Funk".

I'm using an example Yankee has used: Imagine SA playing in the red states. It wouldn't do well at all. Same with GG, which I want to win, but I know it won't.

Also, Rent was SRO at this time. SA is nowhere near that.

As for Avenue Q, that was a rare thing. One reason they won (rumoured, anyway) was because they promised both a tour and a Vegas production. Q also went on a massive campaign to get votes, and it worked.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:58pm

The late writers of CURTAINS both died some time ago. I've said it before and obviously it needs to be repeated - this is not a Jonathan Larsen sentimental vote show. They weren't young men who died right before their first Broadway show opened. This show had been in the works for many years, and during that time, two of the gentlemen involved passed away. It's not about sentimentality for CURTAINS as much as everyone here seems to want to believe.

If it were, the reviews would have been very different.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 5:59pm

Well, I guess there's no G-d then. Sorry, bob8.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:00pm

Bob, then there must be no god, because Murphy won't win. Did you SEE Ebersole's reviews? She got love letters from every critic, as did Mary Louise Wilson. They're locks.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:03pm

I've heard LoveMusik has great performances but is a terrible show.
Updated On: 4/27/07 at 06:03 PM

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 4/27/07 at 6:05pm

If Ebersole wins, she might cancel Wilson out - although if I had to choose one or the other to give it to, I would choose Wilson, but that's obviously not the majority opinion.

My prediction? Monk will be in the lead category and therefore may not get nominated. Ebersole will win that category, and Ziemba will take Featured.