Page: 1



Guesstimates on second-wave damage?

Jordan Levinson
Stand-by
joined:10/28/19
Stand-by
joined:
10/28/19
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#1
Posted: 6/2/20 at 4:52am

With mass Floyd protests and its "super-spreaders" all but nullifying tremendous coronavirus progress in some states (especially NY), we are pretty much headed for a second wave very soon. Expect rapid escalation, near-overwhelmed hospitals, and reimposed stay at home orders in about 2-4 weeks.

The USA has seen about 1.85 million cases and 107,000 deaths so far in what will surely be a less lethal first wave. So I was wondering, just how dangerous will the second wave be? I'm guessing about 10-20 million cases and close to 500,000 deaths by Thanksgiving Day if no more dangerous mutations arise. NY State will be on lockdown again for 4-5 months before you can say "New York Tough."

Updated On: 6/2/20 at 04:52 AM
Jordan Catalano Profile PhotoJordan Catalano Profile Photo
Jordan Catalano
Broadway Legend
joined:10/9/05
Broadway Legend
joined:
10/9/05
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#2
Posted: 6/2/20 at 11:52am
I fear for the worst here in NYC but there’s some reason for hope. Cuomo said today we are at our lowest numbers to date so there’s a possibility that with infections so low it might not have been spread. There’s no way to know for the next few weeks but that’s at least cause for some hope.
Someone in a Tree2 Profile PhotoSomeone in a Tree2 Profile Photo
Someone in a Tree2
Broadway Legend
joined:10/9/12
Broadway Legend
joined:
10/9/12
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#3
Posted: 6/2/20 at 1:56pm

Here in LA things are bleak and getting bleaker-- can't explain why but cases are still surging upward despite most businesses still shuttered and masks worn everywhere. So yeah, the news on cases will almost certainly be worse in a couple weeks.

dramamama611 Profile Photodramamama611 Profile Photo
dramamama611
Broadway Legend
joined:12/4/07
Broadway Legend
joined:
12/4/07
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#4
Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am
Except it's way too soon to know if the protests have indeed made any sort of change. Any uptick the country is seeing is pretty much coming from Memorial Day Weekend. 10 days from now, would be from protests.

I also dont think that's the surge they've been talking about.


If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
dramamama611 Profile Photodramamama611 Profile Photo
dramamama611
Broadway Legend
joined:12/4/07
Broadway Legend
joined:
12/4/07
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#4
Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Double

 

If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
Updated On: 6/5/20 at 06:55 AM
dramamama611 Profile Photodramamama611 Profile Photo
dramamama611
Broadway Legend
joined:12/4/07
Broadway Legend
joined:
12/4/07
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#5
Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Triple
 

If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
Updated On: 6/5/20 at 06:55 AM
dramamama611 Profile Photodramamama611 Profile Photo
dramamama611
Broadway Legend
joined:12/4/07
Broadway Legend
joined:
12/4/07
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#6
Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Quadruple post for the win!

 

If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
Updated On: 6/5/20 at 06:55 AM
Jordan Levinson
Stand-by
joined:10/28/19
Stand-by
joined:
10/28/19
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#7
Posted: 6/5/20 at 1:53pm

75% increase in hospitalizations today in NYC alone (48 up to 84). This is the beginning of the spike everyone's talking about as a result of large-scale Memorial Day gatherings. The protest spike should follow suit in about 2-3 weeks and we're officially headed towards a second peak.

ErikJ972 Profile PhotoErikJ972 Profile Photo
ErikJ972
Broadway Legend
joined:5/26/03
Broadway Legend
joined:
5/26/03
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#8
Posted: 6/5/20 at 2:45pm

Interesting. Jersey had the same Memorial Day crowds and the infection rate here continues to go down.

sabrelady Profile Photosabrelady Profile Photo
sabrelady
Broadway Legend
joined:5/16/03
Broadway Legend
joined:
5/16/03
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#9
Posted: 6/5/20 at 3:32pm

Italian scientists are saying the viral loads of the remaining virus has dropped significantly  making it  possible for the immune system to respond more appropriately . If so, the case load may remain the same but the mortality much lower.

Words that confuse censors:Fecund,penal,taint, titmouse, cockatoo,coccyx, ballcock, cockeye, prickly,kumquat, titter,cunning linguist, insertion, gobble, guzzle, swallow, manhole, rimshot,ramrod,come, fallacious, lugubrious,rectify,Uranus, angina, paradiddle,spotted dick,dictum, frock,cunctation, engorge,turgid,stiff, bush, uvula, crapulence, masticate, Dick Butkus, gherkin and of course the always bewildering lickety split. As you can see, context is every thing. Chuck Lorre Addendum: 555 382 5968 "Sexarama, Hexarama, Queeriosis, Feariosis!" Alec Baldwin “I’m going to have to science the shit outta this.” The Martian
SweetLips22 Profile PhotoSweetLips22 Profile Photo
SweetLips22
Broadway Star
joined:7/1/18
Broadway Star
joined:
7/1/18
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#10
Posted: 6/9/20 at 3:51pm

sabrelady said: "Italian scientists are saying the viral loads of the remaining virus has dropped significantly making it possible for the immune system to respond more appropriately . If so, the case load may remain the same but the mortality much lower."

That's very interesting. As the virus is passed on at what 'strength' is each droplet? Does it lessen with some unhealthy hosts and somehow become stronger with the virile? It's incredible that just ONE virus, in whatever carrier[human or animal or test tube] could attach to just one other human and stay alive to cause all this damage, ONE.

If I read up, as you can tell I havn't, then maybe I would understand more about the Host virus, but is it now still the same one from Wuhan to Brazil?

Back to topic...There were 30,000 protesters here in Brisbane and our current new infection rate was zero. Reports comment that this could be seen as a test case for large communal gatherings eg football/concerts. Let's check around the world in another 10 days for the results.

SmoothLover Profile PhotoSmoothLover Profile Photo
SmoothLover
Broadway Legend
joined:7/3/15
Broadway Legend
joined:
7/3/15
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#11
Posted: 6/9/20 at 7:37pm

I live by Columbus Circle and I have been surprised by the number of NYPD who have not been wearing masks given that they tend to cluster and chat when there is not much is going on in front of the Trump Hotel. I think the general NYC population has done a very good job of following guidelines. Many people are still very skittish however. I hope to god we will not all have to go back to our bunkers come fall.

Updated On: 6/10/20 at 07:37 PM
Jordan Levinson
Stand-by
joined:10/28/19
Stand-by
joined:
10/28/19
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#12
Posted: 6/11/20 at 12:09am

Second wave is underway in 21 different U.S. states and could spread to NY any day/week now. Prepare for the worst, right now.

 

Updated On: 6/11/20 at 12:09 AM
Jordan Catalano Profile PhotoJordan Catalano Profile Photo
Jordan Catalano
Broadway Legend
joined:10/9/05
Broadway Legend
joined:
10/9/05
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#13
Posted: 6/11/20 at 12:51am

SmoothLover said: "I live by Columbus Circle and I have been surprised by the number of NYPD who have not been wearing masks given that they tend to cluster and chat when there is not much is going on in front of the Trump Hotel. I think the general NYC population has done a very good job of following guidelines. Many people are still very skittish however. I hope to god we will not all have to go back to our bunkers come fall."

 

I live about 10 blocks from Columbus Circle and I’ve seen the same thing. The cops I see always  have masks but they’re always pulled down no matter how many of them are together  

 

sabrelady Profile Photosabrelady Profile Photo
sabrelady
Broadway Legend
joined:5/16/03
Broadway Legend
joined:
5/16/03
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#14
Posted: 6/13/20 at 5:38pm

Jordan Levinson said: "Second wave is underway in 21 different U.S. states and could spreadto NY any day/week now. Prepare for the worst, right now.

"

Not actually sure if it can be counted as 2nd wave since the 1st wave is still ongoing.

I expect the true 2nd wave sometime in September.

I hope they inoculate for the flu early this year as it's going to make it challenging to separate flue from covid at least at first.

Words that confuse censors:Fecund,penal,taint, titmouse, cockatoo,coccyx, ballcock, cockeye, prickly,kumquat, titter,cunning linguist, insertion, gobble, guzzle, swallow, manhole, rimshot,ramrod,come, fallacious, lugubrious,rectify,Uranus, angina, paradiddle,spotted dick,dictum, frock,cunctation, engorge,turgid,stiff, bush, uvula, crapulence, masticate, Dick Butkus, gherkin and of course the always bewildering lickety split. As you can see, context is every thing. Chuck Lorre Addendum: 555 382 5968 "Sexarama, Hexarama, Queeriosis, Feariosis!" Alec Baldwin “I’m going to have to science the shit outta this.” The Martian
SmoothLover Profile PhotoSmoothLover Profile Photo
SmoothLover
Broadway Legend
joined:7/3/15
Broadway Legend
joined:
7/3/15
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#15
Posted: 6/14/20 at 2:03am

I wonder if one got the pneumonia shot if it would help prevent it if one got COVID Since so many people seem to get it.

LarryD2
Broadway Legend
joined:9/1/14
Broadway Legend
joined:
9/1/14
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#16
Posted: 6/14/20 at 9:03am

We're still in the first wave. Cases are rising because people stopped caring about safety. 

Huss417 Profile PhotoHuss417 Profile Photo
Huss417
Broadway Legend
joined:5/15/03
Broadway Legend
joined:
5/15/03
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#17
Posted: 6/14/20 at 2:37pm

SmoothLover said: "I wonder if one got the pneumonia shot if it would help preventit ifone got COVID Since so many people seem to get it."

Do vaccines against pneumonia protect you against the new coronavirus?

No. Vaccines against pneumonia, such as pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not provide protection against the new coronavirus.

The virus is so new and different that it needs its own vaccine. Researchers are trying to develop a vaccine against 2019-nCoV, and WHO is supporting their efforts.

Although these vaccines are not effective against 2019-nCoV, vaccination against respiratory illnesses is highly recommended to protect your health.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/can-the-pneumonia-shot-protect-me-from-getting-covid-19/
 

"I hope your Fanny is bigger than my Peter." Mary Martin to Ezio Pinza opening night of Fanny.
Updated On: 6/14/20 at 02:37 PM
FindingNamo
Broadway Legend
joined:7/22/03
Broadway Legend
joined:
7/22/03
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#18
Posted: 6/17/20 at 11:04pm

Remember when Tr(*)mp asked medical experts, in front of TV cameras, if somebody "got a really strong flu shot" would it protect them from Covid? I laugh at the memory of simpler times.

Can you hear me now? Twitter: @NamoInExile
Jordan Catalano Profile PhotoJordan Catalano Profile Photo
Jordan Catalano
Broadway Legend
joined:10/9/05
Broadway Legend
joined:
10/9/05
Guesstimates on second-wave damage?#19
Posted: 6/18/20 at 11:12am

It's cute that people think there's going to be a second wave here when Americans have clearly shown they'll just extend this first wave as long as it can go "cuz m'Freedoms" and various sh*t like that. "If Granny needs to go see Jesus, that's her business but Endless Apps at Applebees got m'name on 'em an' ain't nobody gonna make me a sex slave wearin' no homo mask".