Guesstimates on second-wave damage?

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/2/20 at 4:52am

With mass Floyd protests and its "super-spreaders" all but nullifying tremendous coronavirus progress in some states (especially NY), we are pretty much headed for a second wave very soon. Expect rapid escalation, near-overwhelmed hospitals, and reimposed stay at home orders in about 2-4 weeks.

The USA has seen about 1.85 million cases and 107,000 deaths so far in what will surely be a less lethal first wave. So I was wondering, just how dangerous will the second wave be? I'm guessing about 10-20 million cases and close to 500,000 deaths by Thanksgiving Day if no more dangerous mutations arise. NY State will be on lockdown again for 4-5 months before you can say "New York Tough."

Updated On: 6/2/20 at 04:52 AM

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 6/2/20 at 11:52am

I fear for the worst here in NYC but there’s some reason for hope. Cuomo said today we are at our lowest numbers to date so there’s a possibility that with infections so low it might not have been spread. There’s no way to know for the next few weeks but that’s at least cause for some hope.

[Someone in a Tree2]

Posted: 6/2/20 at 1:56pm

Here in LA things are bleak and getting bleaker-- can't explain why but cases are still surging upward despite most businesses still shuttered and masks worn everywhere. So yeah, the news on cases will almost certainly be worse in a couple weeks.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Except it's way too soon to know if the protests have indeed made any sort of change. Any uptick the country is seeing is pretty much coming from Memorial Day Weekend. 10 days from now, would be from protests.

I also dont think that's the surge they've been talking about.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Double

 

Updated On: 6/5/20 at 06:55 AM

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Triple
 

Updated On: 6/5/20 at 06:55 AM

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 6:55am

Quadruple post for the win!

 

Updated On: 6/5/20 at 06:55 AM

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 1:53pm

75% increase in hospitalizations today in NYC alone (48 up to 84). This is the beginning of the spike everyone's talking about as a result of large-scale Memorial Day gatherings. The protest spike should follow suit in about 2-3 weeks and we're officially headed towards a second peak.

[ErikJ972]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 2:45pm

Interesting. Jersey had the same Memorial Day crowds and the infection rate here continues to go down.

[sabrelady]

Posted: 6/5/20 at 3:32pm

Italian scientists are saying the viral loads of the remaining virus has dropped significantly  making it  possible for the immune system to respond more appropriately . If so, the case load may remain the same but the mortality much lower.

[SweetLips22]

Posted: 6/9/20 at 3:51pm

sabrelady said: "Italian scientists are saying the viral loads of the remaining virus has dropped significantly making it possible for the immune system to respond more appropriately . If so, the case load may remain the same but the mortality much lower."

That's very interesting. As the virus is passed on at what 'strength' is each droplet? Does it lessen with some unhealthy hosts and somehow become stronger with the virile? It's incredible that just ONE virus, in whatever carrier[human or animal or test tube] could attach to just one other human and stay alive to cause all this damage, ONE.

If I read up, as you can tell I havn't, then maybe I would understand more about the Host virus, but is it now still the same one from Wuhan to Brazil?

Back to topic...There were 30,000 protesters here in Brisbane and our current new infection rate was zero. Reports comment that this could be seen as a test case for large communal gatherings eg football/concerts. Let's check around the world in another 10 days for the results.

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 6/9/20 at 7:37pm

I live by Columbus Circle and I have been surprised by the number of NYPD who have not been wearing masks given that they tend to cluster and chat when there is not much is going on in front of the Trump Hotel. I think the general NYC population has done a very good job of following guidelines. Many people are still very skittish however. I hope to god we will not all have to go back to our bunkers come fall.

Updated On: 6/10/20 at 07:37 PM

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/11/20 at 12:09am

Second wave is underway in 21 different U.S. states and could spread to NY any day/week now. Prepare for the worst, right now.

 

Updated On: 6/11/20 at 12:09 AM

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 6/11/20 at 12:51am

SmoothLover said: "I live by Columbus Circle and I have been surprised by the number of NYPD who have not been wearing masks given that they tend to cluster and chat when there is not much is going on in front of the Trump Hotel. I think the general NYC population has done a very good job of following guidelines. Many people are still very skittish however. I hope to god we will not all have to go back to our bunkers come fall."

 

I live about 10 blocks from Columbus Circle and I’ve seen the same thing. The cops I see always  have masks but they’re always pulled down no matter how many of them are together  

 

[sabrelady]

Posted: 6/13/20 at 5:38pm

Jordan Levinson said: "Second wave is underway in 21 different U.S. states and could spreadto NY any day/week now. Prepare for the worst, right now.

"

Not actually sure if it can be counted as 2nd wave since the 1st wave is still ongoing.

I expect the true 2nd wave sometime in September.

I hope they inoculate for the flu early this year as it's going to make it challenging to separate flue from covid at least at first.

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 6/14/20 at 2:03am

I wonder if one got the pneumonia shot if it would help prevent it if one got COVID Since so many people seem to get it.

[LarryD2]

Posted: 6/14/20 at 9:03am

We're still in the first wave. Cases are rising because people stopped caring about safety. 

[Huss417]

Posted: 6/14/20 at 2:37pm

SmoothLover said: "I wonder if one got the pneumonia shot if it would help preventit ifone got COVID Since so many people seem to get it."

Do vaccines against pneumonia protect you against the new coronavirus?

No. Vaccines against pneumonia, such as pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not provide protection against the new coronavirus.

The virus is so new and different that it needs its own vaccine. Researchers are trying to develop a vaccine against 2019-nCoV, and WHO is supporting their efforts.

Although these vaccines are not effective against 2019-nCoV, vaccination against respiratory illnesses is highly recommended to protect your health.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/can-the-pneumonia-shot-protect-me-from-getting-covid-19/
 

Updated On: 6/14/20 at 02:37 PM

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 6/17/20 at 11:04pm

Remember when Tr(*)mp asked medical experts, in front of TV cameras, if somebody "got a really strong flu shot" would it protect them from Covid? I laugh at the memory of simpler times.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 6/18/20 at 11:12am

It's cute that people think there's going to be a second wave here when Americans have clearly shown they'll just extend this first wave as long as it can go "cuz m'Freedoms" and various sh*t like that. "If Granny needs to go see Jesus, that's her business but Endless Apps at Applebees got m'name on 'em an' ain't nobody gonna make me a sex slave wearin' no homo mask".