Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners Using Math

[S394206H]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 5:53pm

I always love reading Ben Zauzmer's mathematical awards show predictions! Here are the ones his algorithm has predicted to win tomorrow:

Plays: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/tony-awards-2018-play-winners-predictions-1117847

Musicals: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/tony-awards-2018-musical-winners-predictions-1118313/item/best-musical-tonys-musical-winners-predictions-1118316

Updated On: 6/9/18 at 05:53 PM

[TexanAddams18]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 5:58pm

Besides Denise Gough, this is exactly how I would want it all to play out. Very interesting. 

[Great Dame]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 8:41pm

This is probably how it will play out. I can't help but wonder why there's so much love for Spongebob and Mean Girls, yet so much hatred for Frozen when all are based on movies/tv. How can Frozen win Oscars, Golden Globes, and Grammys and get a total Tony snub? That makes zero sense to me. They deserve best score and book, and they have a freaking shelf full of awards to prove it. Take Disney out of the equation and they walk out with that award. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Tina Fey and want that show to do well, but there is no way Mean Girls or Spongebob are better than Frozen when you look at the stories.

[musikman]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 8:48pm

The movie won awards because it was good. The musical will not win awards because it’s simply not good. I know you’re a huge fan of it, but even if it weren’t Disney, in no universe are the new songs composed for Frozen better than the score for Band’s Visit or even Spongebob for that matter.

Anyways, this system he’s using is probably slightly flawed this year Since the band’s visit wasn’t Eligible for most of the awards this year. That being said, it looks like most of his predictions will come true.

[Elegance101]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 8:55pm

The movie and the musical are two separate things. A movie can be good, while its musical adaptation is subpar, and vice versa. Nothing about the movie "proves" anything about the musical, which is simply bad.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 9:16pm

Because the movie was made five years ago, people got over the love of the movie which was mainly just love for "Let it Go" and can now see what a mediocre story and score it really is outside that one song. The movie mainly won awards for Best Animated Feature and for "Let it Go". Further, adapting the movie to the stage is a different product than the movie itself. It's not a separate product competing against other Broadway musicals the movie did not have to compete with.

Plus the movie was mediocre at best and after the hype died down, people got to see how weak sauce that storyline was. As for the awards for animated feature, The Wind Rises was robbed as it several levels above the childish Frozen (I think products geared towards children can be just as good as products for adults but this was not one of them). The Wind Rises won more critics' awards but could not over take industry insider, Disney-backed Frozen and all of its hype at those Hollywood industry awards. 

ETA:

I think the system is flawed because it's not like the Oscars. The Oscars have so much overlap with SAG, PGA, DGA, and all the other Hollywood guilds, plus BAFTA and Oscar both have serious overlap in membership as well. That's why using math with the precursors worked so well for that award. There is like little to no overlap with the Tony voting membership and the Drama Desk and OCC. It can show how well-liked a performance is to show the likelihood of a performance getting rewarded. I think the predictions still work out though due to serious lack of competition and depth this year making the categories pretty predictable.
 

Updated On: 6/9/18 at 09:16 PM

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 9:19pm

It’s because Frozen the film is a treasured gem and Frozen on Broadway is an unbelievable bore.

[Great Dame]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 9:46pm

Hype doesn't follow something mediocre. The movie generated hype because it was fabulous, people just got sick of all the coverage after a while. The musical is expected to somehow blow up charts while also getting rid of Frozen fatigue, which is impossible because it's still Frozen. If the musical is a bore, it wouldn't be near the top of the sales chart every week, breaking St. James records multiple times or full of audiences who lose their minds at the end each night. If the movie never existed I think the reactions to the musical would be far more positive than they are. It's critics who aren't separating the two mediums, not fans. Look at the story and the songs as if they've never happened before, which I realize is impossible, but people would be nuts for the music now if the movie hadn't happened. I like Disney alright, but I'm not a Disney nut I swear. I just personally think this show had unattainable expectations on it that none of the others did, which is a shame because it really is a wonderful story with gorgeous music and a lot of talent. 

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 9:48pm

Great Dame said: "Hype doesn't follow somethingmediocre. The movie generated hype because it was fabulous, people just got sick of all the coverage after a while. The musical is expected to somehow blow up charts while also getting rid of Frozen fatigue, which is impossible because it's still Frozen.If the musical is a bore, it wouldn't be near the top of the sales chart every week, breaking St. James records multiple times or full of audiences who lose their minds at the end each night. If the movie never existed I think the reactions to the musical would be far more positive than they are. It's critics who aren't separating the two mediums, not fans. Look at the story and the songs as if they've never happened before, which I realize is impossible, but people would be nuts forthe music now if the movie hadn't happened. I like Disney alright, but I'm not a Disney nut I swear. I just personally think this show had unattainable expectations on it that none of the others did, which is a shame because it really is a wonderful story with gorgeous music and a lot of talent."

Oh please, hype certainly follows something mediocre. There are way too many examples to name. It even got a horrible, under qualified, and mentally unhinged person to become the President of the United States. The fans were going to like Frozen on Broadway even if Elsa sat in a chair and belted out "Let it Go".

Ok, I was being harsh. Frozen is better than most things, and I do think objectively, the music is on par with Mean Girls. Maybe if it wasn't a preexisting movie, then it may have been better received since the songs would be new and we would not have heard "Let it Go" before. But there's no way of knowing if people would have taken to it, or if "Let it Go" would have been dismissed as one of those "Defying Gravity" rehashes that happened in a string of shows after Wicked came out.

Updated On: 6/9/18 at 09:48 PM

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 1:32am

Getting back to Zauzmer's Tony predictions, based on math, it's fascinating to look at 'em, but for the record, he mispredicted ...

* That Rachel Chavkin would win for directing ''The Great Comet.''

* That Jenn Colella would win Featured Actress in a Musical.

* That ''Hello, Dolly!'' would win for its Orchestrations.

* That Bartlett Sher would win for Directing ''Oslo.''

* That Danny DeVito (''Price'' ) would win for Featured Actor.

P.S.  I got the same ones wrong at GoldDerby … without math.

 

Updated On: 6/10/18 at 01:32 AM

[Dancingthrulife2]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 7:48am

The fact that not every show on Broadway is eligible for awards where its off Broadway incarnation has already been considered heavily discounted the credibility of his math.

[Elfuhbuh]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 8:45am

The two I’m really rooting for are Ethan Slater’s Best Actor win and My Fair Lady for Best Revival, so I’m totally okay if the rest don’t pan out like this.

[Impossible2]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 11:25am

Frozen is the worst of the modern Disney films, it is a mess.

Tangled should've had it's success, at least it would've deserved it.