Official Way Too Early 2018 Tony Predictions Thread- Page 3

[ozjust4]

Posted: 9/13/17 at 4:06pm

I was looking through old Tony nominations and I noticed that LaChanze was in the Featured Actress category when she was Ti Moune in Once On This Island, so would this put Hailey Kilgore in the Featured Actress category?

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 11:26am

It's been a slow morning, so I predicted the top musical categories for next year. These are completely based on nothing (just thought it'd be funny to look back a year from now on what I was thinking!):

Best Musical
The Band's Visit
Frozen
Mean Girls
SpongeBob Squarepants
POTENTIAL: Escape to Margaritaville

Best Revival of a Musical (there are only 3 coming in, so does that mean all 3 could get nominated, or would there only be 2?)
Carousel
My Fair Lady
Once on This Island

Actor in a Musical
Joshua Henry, Carousel
Paul Alexander Nolan, Escape to Margaritaville
Ethan Slater, SpongeBob Squarepants
Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit
Whoever Plays Henry Higgins, My Fair Lady

Actress in a Musical
Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit
Caissie Levy, Frozen
Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls
Jessie Mueller, Carousel
Whoever Plays Eliza Doolittle, My Fair Lady

Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants
Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit
Whoever Plays Alfred Higgins, My Fair Lady
Slot #4
Slot #5

Featured Actress in a Musical
Renée Fleming, Carousel
Hailey Kilgore, Once on This Island
Betsy Wolfe, Carousel
Probably Henningsen, Park, or Rockwell, Mean Girls
Slot #5

Who am I missing that looks like a lock? This whole thing can and will probably be shaken up when Dreamgirls get announced, among other shows potentially coming in.

Updated On: 9/14/17 at 11:26 AM

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 11:41am

Alex Newall and Lea Salonga  might get nominated for Once on this Island.  I could also see Alex Gemignani landing a nom for Carousel.  My Fair Lady and Carousel also have several small supporting roles that could possibly receive nominations as well.

Also, I do see Mean Girls doing quite well in terms of nominations.  I'm not sure if it'll win anything, but I think it's probably the most promising new musical coming in other than The Band's Visit.

As for plays, I have a hard time imaging a world in which Andrew Garfield, Nathan Lane, and Denise Gough don't win Tonys for their absolutely brilliant performances in Angels in America.  I certainly see that production taking Best Revival of a Play, Best Lead Actor (Garfield), Best Featured Actor  (Lane), and Best Featured Actress  (Gough), and maybe Best Scenic Design for a Play.  It's stunning.

Also, I think SpongeBob might take scenic and lighting of a musical.  I didn't care for the show much, but the set and the lightning were pretty spectacular.

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 12:06pm

Angels will have to fight Harry Potter for scenic design. Do we think Harry Potter will win Best Play just because it'll be the most successful play ever and because of the spectacle of it? Or will a really well written play win?

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 12:07pm

LesWickedly said: "Angels will have to fight Harry Potter for scenic design. Do we thinkHarry Potter will win Best Play just because it'll be the most successful play ever and because of the spectacle of it? Or will a really well written play win?"

The new plays up for the 2018 Tony (currently) include:1984, The Children, Farinelli and the King, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts I and II, Junk, Latin History for Morons, Meteor Shower, The Minutes, and The Parisian Woman. 

Simply based on how the season is laid out calendar-wise, I see the Best Play Tony as Harry Potter's to lose.

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 2:36pm

With them all laid out like that, I'd have to agree! Less than a month until they're on sale. October 12th will be either the best or worst day of my life haha (slightly overreacting)

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 2:39pm

From what I understand the design aspects and the acting are both very strong, but apparently the script is very weak, so I don't see it winning Best Play.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 2:47pm

ozjust4 said: "I was looking through old Tony nominations and I noticed that LaChanze was in the Featured Actress category when she was Ti Moune in Once On This Island, so would this put Hailey Kilgore in the Featured Actress category?"

I assume she wasn't billed above the title, and I bet they wanted to keep her in Featured so she wouldn't be up against Lea Salonga, who won that year for Miss Saigon.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 2:50pm

There are many instances in the Best Play category when the flashier production beat out the better-written script: War Horse, Curious Incident..., Oslo, etc. Happens all the time in the Best Musical race as well. Harry Potter is very much in the mix to win the whole thing.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 2:52pm

HeyMrMusic said: "There are many instances in the Best Play categorywhen the flashierproduction beat out thebetter-written script:War Horse,Curious Incident...,Oslo, etc. Happens all the time in the Best Musical race as well.Harry Potteris very much in the mix to win the whole thing."

I wish there was still a separate award for Best Playwright, because War Horse was far and away one of the best productions I've ever seen, but its script was not the best that season. 

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 4:37pm

Yes, there needs to be a best book of a Play. Best Play is pretty much best production. Book, performances, production elements etc. which is why Harry Potter is likely to take it. Plus, the Tonys love a financial hit and Harry Potter WILL be the most successful Broadway play (as in straight play) of all time. 

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 4:47pm

I agree that there needs to be a Best Script Tony Award, but I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying.  The script is TERRIBLE.  It's not even serviceable.  It's glorified fan fiction.  I read the script and was blown away by how awful it is.  I don't expect the Tonys will award it even if it is the biggest play of all time.  It will probably get set and lighting (with serious competition from Angels), but I can't imagine it winning best play.  Apparently the script doesn't sound any better on stage.  Everyone that I've talked to about it has said that the dialogue is poor and stilted and the plot is bizarre, riddled with plot holes, and nearly incomprehensible, but is still fun and a great time since it's Harry Potter.  It'll probably get a billion nominations, but I'm not sure that it'll win very many, unless all of the other plays fall flat on their faces and absolutely suck.

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 9/14/17 at 4:59pm

There's not much competition to begin with. From what I've heard, it does work better live, like most plays. However, if a better written musical than Hamilton came out the same year, it still wouldn't have won because of the mammoth hit Hamilton was. I'm guessing the same will happen with Harry Potter.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 10/6/17 at 9:33am

Reviving this thread now that we have our first chunk of My Fair Lady casting. I think Lauren Ambrose and Harry Hadden-Paton are well-primed for nominations in Lead Actress and Lead Actor, respectively, simply given those big roles.

Could Norbert Leo Butz could be heading for a Featured Actor win as Alfred Doolittle?

(Feel free to disagree—just wanted to discuss!)

[willrolandsframes]

Posted: 10/6/17 at 10:40am

UPDATED PICKS:

Best Musical:

Escape to Margaritaville

Mean Girls

SpongeBob SquarePants

The Band's Visit

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:

Carousel

My Fair Lady

Once on this Island

 

BEST PLAY:

Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts I & II

Farinelli & The King

Meteor Shower

The Parisian Woman

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY:

Angels in America

Children of a Lesser God

The Iceman Cometh

Three Tall Women

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL:

Michael Arden, Once on this Island

David Cromer, The Band's Visit

Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls

Jack O'Brien, Carousel

Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY:

Marianne Elliott, Angels in America

Kenny Leon, Children of a Lesser God

Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women

John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child Parts I & II

George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh

 

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:

Henry Hadden-Patton, My Fair Lady

Joshua Henry, Carousel

Paul Alexander Nolan, Escape to Margaritaville

Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit

Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

 

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:

Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady

Hailey Kilgore, Once on this Island

Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit

Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls

Jessie Mueller, Carousel

 

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY:

Chris Evans, Lobby Hero

Andrew Garfield, Angels in America

Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts I & II

Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King

Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

 

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY:

Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women

Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women

Condola Rashad, Saint Joan

Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God

Uma Thurman, The Parisian Woman

 

BEST SCORE:

Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Frozen

Jimmy Buffett, Escape to Margaritaville

Jeff Richmond and Neil Benjamin, Mean Girls

David Yazbek, The Band's Visit

 

BEST BOOK:

Tina Fey, Mean Girls

Greg Garcia & Mike O'Malley, Escape to Margaritaville

Kyle Jarrow, SpongeBob Squarepants

Itamar Moses, The Band's Visit

[little_sally]

Posted: 10/6/17 at 10:56am

After seeing the AiA NTL screening, I can't imagine anyone beating Nathan Lane or Denise Gough.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 10/6/17 at 11:20am

Does anyone know if Alison Luff is featured or lead in E2M. Would love to see her nab a nomination, but the lead actress category seems pretty full.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 9:36am

best revival of a musical:
*My Fair Lady*
Carousel 
Once on this island

Best musical: 
*the bands visit*
Frozen 
Mean girls
Spongebob 

Best Actor in a musical:
*joshua henry*
Tony Shalhoub
Paul Alexander Nolan
Henry Hadden-Patton
Ethan Slater

Best actress in a musical:
*Katrina Lenk*
Taylor Louderman
Jessie mueller 
Lauren Ambrose
Hailey Kilgore

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
*Alex Gemignani*
Norbert Leo Butz
Danny Skinner
Gavin Lee
Jelani Alladin

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
*Renee Fleming*
Ashley Park
Patti Murin
Alison Luff
Lilli Cooper

BEST SCORE:
*David Yazbek, The Band's Visit*
Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Frozen
Jimmy Buffett, Escape to Margaritaville
Jeff Richmond and Neil Benjamin, Mean Girls

BEST BOOK:
*Tina Fey, Mean Girls*
Greg Garcia & Mike O'Malley, Escape to Margaritaville
Kyle Jarrow, SpongeBob Squarepants
Itamar Moses, The Band's Visit

Best Choreography: 
*Justin Peck, Carousel*
Whoever is Choreographing(might be gattelli, My Fair Lady
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Christopher Gattelli, Spongebob(if gattelli is choreographing My Fair Lady forget this nomination and add Kelly Devine, Escape to Margaritaville)
Rob Ashford, Frozen

Best Direction of a Musical:
*Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady*
Michael Arden, Once on this Island
David Cromer, The Band's Visit
Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls
Jack O'Brien, Carousel

[Itonlytakesajourney]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 10:52am

Carousel is pretty much a lock for Best Choreography, I don't see anything this season beating the dream ballet. I don't think Katrina Lenk will get Best Actress though, I think her and Taylor will be contenders, but ultimately either Ambrose or Jessie will win. Add whoever plays Freddy to the Featured Actor category; Nobert will put up a fight as well. 

[Kad]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 11:13am

I think Ari’el Stachel from The Band’s Visit is a strong contender for a best featured actor nomination. He was nominated for both the Lortel and Drama Desk for his performance.

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 11:14am

If I could predict some winners this early in the game (because why the hell not) these would be my predictions:

Best Musical: The Band's Visit

Best Revival of a Musical: My Fair Lady  (although Carousel is an equally strong contender, but LCT's revivals are spectacular)

Best Actress in a Musical: Katrina Lenk

Best Actor in a Musical: Joshua Henry

Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Renee Fleming

Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Norbert Leo Butz

Best Score: The Band's Visit

Best Book: Mean Girls (or The Band's Visit, but Tina Fey is one of the funniest writers out there and if her book is good, I could see them wanting to award her).

Choreography: Carousel

Direction: Bartlett Sher for My Fair Lady

Best Play:  Harry Potter even though the script is atrocious

Best Revival of a Play: Angels in America

Best Actress in a Play:  IDK.  Glenda Jackson or Laurie Metcalf maybe

Best Actor in a Play: Andrew Garfield

Best Featured Actor in a Play: Nathan Lane

Best Featured Actress in a Play: Denise Gough

Best Director of a Play: Marianne Elliott

Just some wild guesses.  I wonder how accurate this will be next summer.  It'll be interesting to go back and see.
 

[Kad]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 12:23pm

A major factor for Best Actor in a Play is whether Lane is considered in that category or Featured. 

[ozjust4]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 2:54pm

Eeeh, why not!

Best Musical:

-The Band's Visit

-Escape to Margaritaville

-Frozen

-Mean Girls

 

Best Revival:

-Carousel

-My Fair Lady

-Once On This Island

 

Best Leading Actress in a Musical:

Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady

Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island

Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit

Jessie Mueller, Carousel

Patti Murin, Frozen

 

Best Leading Actor in a Musical:

Harry Haddon-Paton, My Fair Lady

Joshua Henry, Carousel

Paul Alexander Nolan, Escape to Margaritaville

Tony Shaloub, The Band's Visit

Ethan Slater, Spongebob SquarePants

Best Book:

Greg Garcia and Mike O'Malley, Escape to Margaritaville

Tina Fey, Mean Girls

Kyle Jarrow, Spongebob SquarePants

Itamar Moses, The Band's Visit

 

Best Score:

Nell Banjamin and Jeff Richmond, Mean Girls

Robert Lopez and Kristen Andersen Lopez, Frozen

David Yazbeck, The Band's Visit

*Slot to be filled as soon as somebody answers the question Below*

Is Jimmy Buffett writing an original score for Escape to Margaritaville? Wondering because I noticed some of you include him in your predictions. I thought it was a jukebox musical

Updated On: 10/7/17 at 02:54 PM

[Markie27]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 6:08pm

 I’m just going got to put this out there so when I come back and look at it I’ll just laugh at how far off I was.

 

BEST MUSICAL:

Escape to Margaritaville

Frozen

Mean Girls

THE BAND’S VISIT

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:

My Fair Lady

CAROUSEL 

Once on this Island

 

BEST PLAY:

Farinelli & The King

HARRY POTTER AND THE CURSED CHILD, Parts I & II

Junk

The Minutes

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY:

ANGELS IN AMERICA

Children of a Lesser God

The Iceman Cometh

Three Tall Women

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL:

MICHAEL ARDEN Once on this Island

David Cromer, The Band's Visit

Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls

Jack O'Brien, Carousel

Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY:

MARIANNE ELLIOTT, Angels in America

Anna D. Shapiro, The Minutes

Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women

John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child Parts I & II

George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh

 

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:

Henry Hadden-Patton, My Fair Lady

Joshua Henry, Carousel

Paul Alexander Nolan, Escape to Margaritaville

TONY SHALOUB, The Band's Visit

Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

 

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:

LAUREN AMBROSE, My Fair Lady

Caissie Levy, Frozen

Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit

Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls

Jessie Mueller, Carousel

 

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY:

Steven Pasquale, Junk

ANDREW GARFIELD, Angels in America

Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts I & II

Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King

Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

 

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY:

GLENDA JACKSON, Three Tall Women

Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women

Condola Rashad, Saint Joan

Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God

Uma Thurman, The Parisian Woman

 

BEST SCORE:

Escape to Margaritaville

Frozen

Mean Girls

THE BAND’S VISIT

 

BEST BOOK:

Frozen

Mean Girls

Escape to Margaritaville

THE BAND’S VISIT

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, PLAY 

Nathan Lane, Angels in America (if they can get away from the committee andd put him in this category)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, PLAY 

Denise Gough , Angels in America

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, MUSICAL 

Ari'el Stachel, The Band’s Visit

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MUSICAL 

Rene Fleming, Carousel

 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY - CAROUSEL

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS - THE BAND’S VISIT

 

PLAYS:

BEST COSTUME - FARINELLI AND THE KING

BEST SET DESIGN - ANGELS IN AMERICA

BEST LIGHTING - HARRY POTTER

BEST SOUND - HARRY POTTER

 

MUSICALS

BEST COSTUME - SPONGEBOB

BEST SET DESIGN - FROZEN (once they improve - I hope)

BEST LIGHTING - FROZEN

BEST SOUND - SPONGEBOB

[adamgreer]

Posted: 10/7/17 at 6:12pm

BroadwayConcierge said: "Reviving this thread now that we have our first chunk of My Fair Lady casting. I think Lauren Ambrose and Harry Hadden-Paton are well-primed for nominations in Lead Actress and Lead Actor, respectively, simply given those big roles.

Could Norbert Leo Butz could be heading for a Featured Actor win as Alfred Doolittle?

(Feel free to disagree—just wanted to discuss!)"

I would think, given her stature, that Diana Rigg would be primed for a nomination and possible win in Featured more than Norbert would be.