BustopherPhantom's FINAL Tony Predictions

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BustopherPhantom
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BustopherPhantom's FINAL Tony Predictions#1
Posted: 3/21/08 at 1:21am
PLAYS

BEST PLAY
THE 39 STEPS / AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY / ROCK 'N' ROLL / THE SEAFARER
Spoiler: THURGOOD

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
BOEING-BOEING / CYMBELINE / THE HOMECOMING / TOP GIRLS
Spoiler: CYRANO DE BERGERAC or MACBETH

BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Maria Aitken, THE 39 STEPS / Conor McPherson, THE SEAFARER / Anna D. Shapiro, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY / Matthew Warchus, BOEING-BOEING
Spoiler: Daniel Sullivan, THE HOMECOMING

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
Ben Daniels, LES LIAISONS DANGEREUSES / Lawrence Fisburne, THURGOOD / Mark Rylance, BOEING-BOEING / Rufus Sewell, ROCK 'N' ROLL / Patrick Stewart, MACBETH
Spoiler: Jimmi Simpson, THE FARNSWORTH INVENTION

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Eve Best, THE HOMECOMING / Deanna Dunagan, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY / Kate Fleetwood, MACBETH / S. Epatha Menkerson, COME BACK, LITTLE SHEBA / Amy Morton, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
Spoiler: Martha Plimpton, CYMBELINE

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Arnie Burton, THE 39 STEPS / Raul Esparza, THE HOMECOMING / Michael Feast, MACBETH / Jim Norton, THE SEAFARER / David Pittu, IS HE DEAD?
Spoiler: Michael McKean, THE HOMECOMING or Cliff Saunders, THE 39 STEPS

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Sinead Cusack, ROCK 'N' ROLL Elizabeth Marvel, TOP GIRLS Mary McCormack, BOEING-BOEING Martha Plimpton, TOP GIRLS Phylicia Rashad, CAT ON A HOT TIN ROOF
Spoiler: Marisa Tomei, TOP GIRLS or Kathryn Hahn, BOEING-BOEING

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE 39 STEPS / AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY / BOEING-BOEING / CYRANO DE BERGERAC
Spoiler: CYMBELINE

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
BOEING-BOEING / CYRANO DE BERGERAC / LES LIAISONS DANGEREUSES / MACBETH
Spoiler: ROCK 'N' ROLL

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE 39 STEPS / AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY / THE FARNSWORTH INVENTION / ROCK 'N' ROLL
Spoiler: CYRANO DE BERGERAC

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
THE 39 STEPS / AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY / MACBETH / THE SEAFARER
Spoiler: ROCK 'N' ROLL


MUSICALS

BEST MUSICAL
A CATERED AFFAIR / IN THE HEIGHTS / PASSING STRANGE / XANADU

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
GREASE! / GYPSY / SOUTH PACIFIC / SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Harvey Fierstein, A CATERED AFFAIR / Quiara Alegrķa Hudes, IN THE HEIGHTS / Stew, PASSING STRANGE / Douglas Carter Beane, XANADU

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
A CATERED AFFAIR / CRY-BABY / IN THE HEIGHTS / PASSING STRANGE

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Sam Buntrock, SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE / Annie Dorsen, PASSING STRANGE / Thomas Kail, IN THE HEIGHTS / Bartlett Sher, SOUTH PACIFIC
Spoiler: John Doyle, A CATERED AFFAIR or Arthur Laurents, GYPSY

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Evans, SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE / Cheyenne Jackson, XANADU / Linn Manuel-Miranda, IN THE HEIGHTS / Paulo Szot, SOUTH PACIFIC / Tom Wopat, A CATERED AFFAIR

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Kerry Butler, XANADU / Patti LuPone, GYPSY / Kelli O'Hara, SOUTH PACIFIC / Faith Prince, A CATERED AFFAIR / Jenna Russell, SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Breaker, PASSING STRANGE / Robin DeJesus, IN THE HEIGHTS / Boyd Gaines, GYPSY / Shuler Hensley, YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN / Matthew Morrison, SOUTH PACIFIC
Spoiler: Danny Burstein, SOUTH PACIFIC or Christopher Fitzgerald, YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Laura Benanti, GYPSY / Alli Mauzey, CRY-BABY
Olga Merediz, IN THE HEIGHTS / Loretta Ables Sayre, SOUTH PACIFIC / Mary Testa, XANADU
Spoiler: Eisa Davis, PASSING STRANGE or Jackie Hoffman, XANADU

BEST SET DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
IN THE HEIGHTS / SOUTH PACIFIC / SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE / A CATERED AFFAIR
Spoiler: XANADU

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
A CATERED AFFAIR / IN THE HEIGHTS / SOUTH PACIFIC / YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN
Spoiler: CRY-BABY

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
IN THE HEIGHTS / PASSING STRANGE / SOUTH PACIFIC / SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE
Spoiler: YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
A CATERED AFFAIR / IN THE HEIGHTS / SOUTH PACIFIC / PASSING STRANGE
Spoiler: GYPSY

BEST CHOREOGRAPHER
CRY-BABY / IN THE HEIGHTS / PASSING STRANGE / SOUTH PACIFIC
Spoiler: XANADU

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
A CATERED AFFAIR / IN THE HEIGHTS / PASSING STRANGE / XANADU
Spoiler: SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE


"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
Updated On: 5/12/08 at 01:21 AM
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i don't think Stew will win for Best Book.
"I mean, sitting side by side with another man watching Patti LuPone play Rose in GYPSY on Broadway is essentially the equivalent of having hardcore sex." -Wanna Be A Foster. "Say 'Goody.' Say 'Bubbi.'" ... "That's it. Exactly as if it were 'Goody.' Now I know you're gonna sing 'Goody' this time, but nevertheless..."
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I think Book will go to Douglas Carter Beane for XANADU.

I agree with most of the rest of your predictions.

I love your Robin De Jesus prediction.

I think Featured Actress in a Musical will be a tight race between Benanti and Merediz, with an edge given to Merediz as she is a minority, life long replacement finally given her chance to originate a new role from scratch in a fresh, new musical. Benanti has years ahead of her to win a Tony.

I don't know how you can make any predictions about LES LIAISONS DANGEREUSES or TOP GIRLS when they haven't even begun previews.
"Winning a Tony this year is like winning Best Attendance in third grade: no one will care but the winner and their mom."
-Kad

"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
Updated On: 3/21/08 at 01:30 AM
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BustopherPhantom
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BroadwayEnthusiast: I think a Best Book win for Stew will be an acknowledgement of how original the show is.

Foster: I picked LIAISONS for Best Set Design because it seems like the kind of play that gives the designer an excuse to go romantically wild.

Picked TOP GIRLS because of how long it's been around before coming to Broadway, and Featured Actress for the same reason.

I'll probably be eating my words on a lot of these predictions as Tony night comes closer, but there you go.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
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I think Lin-Manuel Miranda will win two Tonys this year: Best Score and Best Lead Actor in a Musical.

Also, agreed that Best Book will probably go to Douglas Carter-Beane for Xanadu.

Also, as much as I love Faith Prince, Patti is long, long overdue for another Tony.

I am pulling for Robin deJesus and Olga Merediz, but Laura Benanti might get it. deJesus on the other hand, seems to grow more popular every day!
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I think best book will go to Douglas Carter Beane or Harvey Fierstein. I think best actress will go to Jenna Russell and lead actor to Daniel Evans. Best revival will go to South Pacific. Actress in a play will go to Deanna Dunagan and featured actress in a musical to Benanti. (She's been nominated twice and has yet to win-she's also completely eclipsing Patti in this show.)
"A birdcage I plan to hang. I'll get to that someday. A birdcage for a bird who flew away...Around the world." "Life is a cabaret old chum, only a cabaret old chum, and I love a cabaret!"-RIP Natasha Richardson-I was honored to have witnessed her performance as Sally Bowles.
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Agree with the others that Beane will take book--

Love the De Jesus prediction !! He is SOOO good !
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Lead Actress is going to Amy Morton.
"I mean, sitting side by side with another man watching Patti LuPone play Rose in GYPSY on Broadway is essentially the equivalent of having hardcore sex." -Wanna Be A Foster. "Say 'Goody.' Say 'Bubbi.'" ... "That's it. Exactly as if it were 'Goody.' Now I know you're gonna sing 'Goody' this time, but nevertheless..."
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I agree in most of your assessments on almost everything. I love love to see the idea for SITHWG for Best Musical Revival and A : OC for Best New Play.

Yeah- I can agree on IN THE HEIGHTS too as Best New Musical bec. I think its the safest bet for now (PS has a lighting rod effect on people either you LOVE it or HATE it)

Sound Design- The 39 Steps- I completely agree on you.

Though I think we have to wait for A CATERED AFFAIR for now.. I heard so many unfavorable reviews in San Diego.. so were not really sure about Faith Prince & Tom Wopat yet...I am actually looking forward to see CB & ACA next weekend, by then I would have seen ALL THE MUSICALS already (considering GLORY DAYS does not make it in time)

I strongly think...

Patti LuPOne has a great chance of winning Lead Actress in a Musical.

That's about it... I really think IN THE HEIGHTS will be the big winner this year..they might take a LOT of TONYS (Best Score, Best Scenic Design, Best Orchestration...etc)

I am thrilled that either IN THE HEIGHTS or PASSING STRANGE will win BEST MUSICAL. My personal favorite is (as you all know) Passing Strange...but I think IN THE HEIGHTS will get it! re: BustopherPhantom's Tony Predictions (as of 3/21)

J*

Updated On: 3/21/08 at 03:15 PM
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I think it's quite possible that PASSING STRANGE gets Best Score.
My blog- http://okayentertainment.blogspot.com/
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bump
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
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blaxx
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I'll probably be eating my words on a lot of these predictions as Tony night comes closer, but there you go.

No, I think you're pretty close.
Listen, I don't take my clothes off for anyone, even if it is "artistic". - JANICE
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I thought Deanna Dunagan was much stronger than Amy Morton. I thought Morton was good, but would give it to Dunagan over Morton

Also, I think Chris Fitzgerald will get a nomination over anyone from Glory Days.


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Where's the Young Frankenstein love?
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I don't think YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN or THE LITTLE MERMAID will get anything: MERMAID because it is an example of the low standards of Disney, and FRANKENSTEIN because it is an example of one man's ego exploded in biblical style.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
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I love how you're predicting wins for stuff that hasn't even started performances yet.
A work of art is an invitation to love.
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I agree with a lot of predictions especially noticing that Little mermaid was completly snubbed. I somehow think/hope that YF gets at least a few design noms and Christopher Fitzgerald gets a nomination for featured actor. After all if carolee carmello got a nomination for Lestat I dont see why Chris cant get one for YF. His performance is fantastic and i dont think the tony comitee will completly snub YF.
<------ Me and my friends with patti Lupone at my friends afterparty for her concert with audra mcdonald during the summer of 07.
"I am sorry but it is an unjust world and virtue is only triumphant in theatricle performances" The Mikado
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I love how you're predicting wins for stuff that hasn't even started performances yet.

I'll be taking down those win predictions by the end of the season when I post what I think will be nominated for the Play categories (already did it for the Musicals).
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
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But why even bother? There's nothing to base it on other than random speculation.
A work of art is an invitation to love.
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But why even bother? There's nothing to base it on other than random speculation.

Because speculation is, at least for me, half the fun of this game.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
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Who cares if a show is up because of someones ego. The music is good, the show is funny, the design elements are awesome, and the actors are fabulous. I'm sick of hearing about this being snubbed because of Mel Brooks. Shame on the Tony Awards if they do that. ::wags finger reproachfully::
Updated On: 4/4/08 at 06:01 PM
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Speculation makes sense when there's actually something to base it on; then, yes, it's half the fun. I just can't understand making predictions like that when not only haven't you seen them, but performances haven't begun period. How can you base a prediction that someone is going to win the Tony on something nobody has seen? I mean, if that's fun, then have a ball, I just don't see the point. It's like one notch above a completely random guess.
A work of art is an invitation to love.
Updated On: 4/4/08 at 06:04 PM
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Glory Days is the wild card - what's the advance word on this show & particularly the score? Cry-Baby is supposedly getting better during previews??

Deana Dunagan and Amy Morton might cancel each other out, which could help S. Epatha Merkerson or Kate Fleetwood (would Lady Macbeth be considered in the "featured" category?) - I think Dunagan will win, though.

Kate Fleetwood is getting better early "reviews" than Patrick Stewart - even though it failed, Norbert Leo Butz got strong reviews for Is He Dead? This is a hard to predict category this year - drama desk and other early awards will help. James Earl Jones - lead or featured??

I thought Martha Plimpton would win last year; which is why I think she might win this year for Top Girls - depends on where they place Eve Best (The Homecoming) and Kate Fleetwood (Macbeth).

As for A Catered Affair, only having heard the score at this point (which I found quite dull), it all depends on the reviews. It doesn't seem like a good idea for a musical; all depends on the reviews, though.

Featured Actress in a musical - I think Alli Mauzey (Cry-Baby) and Mary Beth Peil (Sunday In The Park With George) both have strong shots at nominations; I think Leslie Kritzer will not be nominated. Would love to see a tie: Laura Benanti and Olga Merediz; i'd be happy with either of them winning the award.

Matthew Morrison will be replaced by Christopher Fitzgerald of Young Frankenstein; Daniel Breaker - lead or featured?? I'm hoping for Robin DeJesus to win it.

I'd rather see Cheyenne Jackson get a nomination for Xanadu - depends on where they place Daniel Breaker. I think Daniel Evans will win.

Patti Lu is a LOCK for musical actress.

It's just me - i'm on the hate side of Passing Strange. But others love it.

Too early to tell on the design nominations.

Andy Blankenbuelher is a LOCK for best choreography.

In The Heights will get best musical & best score. Best book might go to ITH, but I think Douglas Carter Beane's surprisingly fun book for Xanadu has a good chance, too. (Passing Strange has it's fans, but also it's detractors, so I don't think it can win).
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Patti Lu is a LOCK for musical actress.

... she's really not. Not as much as people would like to think she is, anyway.
A work of art is an invitation to love.
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I'm sick of hearing about this being snubbed because of Mel Brooks. Shame on the Tony Awards if they do that.

Oh, honey, the man got enough Tony awards to last him and three generations of Brooks to come.
Listen, I don't take my clothes off for anyone, even if it is "artistic". - JANICE