Jefferson Mays is a close second but if it were up to me, it would go to NPH. I don't think it's a vested interest, I just think the majority see him as giving the best male performance in a musical out of the nominees. He will probably win.
I've seen them all EXCEPT Neil Patrick Harris, who I am seeing next weekend.
In my opinion, there's no stopping NPH. From what I've heard from others, he's unreal. And the other performances are great, especial Andy Karl and Jefferson Mays, but I think the Tony is Neil's.
I cannot decide whose performance I liked better, Neil Patrick Harris or Jefferson Mays. They are both amazing, and at this point, I agree that they are the front runners. I don't think it's vested interest either, as NPH is truly giving a stellar performance in Hedwig. I walked in not really knowing what to expect, and NPH and the entire cast blew me away! This is a very competitive year for the acting categories, and I know I would be happy (and it would be very deserving), no matter who ends up taking the Tony home.
If you asked six months ago I would have said "this is going to Jefferson Mays" but after seeing and reading reviews for NPH he WILL be standing onstage that night to accept the award.
I'm really rooting for Andy or Jefferson. I find NPH to be mediocre in everything he does (a very unpopular opinion, I realize). There's something off-putting about him.
Really, I'd like to see anyone but NPH win. Let Audra win in that category for all I care! :P
I still think the race is between NPH (who I also do not particularly care for) and Mays, but I feel like Bryce Pinkham has been getting a recent surge of affection and attention, and certainly would be more than happy if he wound up winning.
When I see the phrase "the ____ estate", I imagine a vast mansion in the country full of monocled men and high-collared women receiving letters about productions across the country and doing spit-takes at whatever they contain.
-Kad
I'm okay with either of the gentlemen from "Gentleman's Guide" winning. However, I think Neil Patrick Harris will win. (And I'm happy with that, as well-he is very, very good.)
I vastly preferred the performances of Mays and Pinkham, but I would be surprised if most voters didn't go for the gonzo/glam/sweat of Harris' work (not to mention being swayed by his star persona and history).
It's a tough call between Mays and Harris. On the one hand, Mays has already won a Tony for rapidly changing back and forth between different characters. On the other, while NPH is loved and got rave reviews, most voters probably still remember John Cameron Mitchell in the role and will be comparing the two. Ultimately, though, as Mays has won, it's probably NPH's turn.