I'm with WDW. I'd guesstimate AI's breakeven at somewhere in the low to mid $500's. With the size of the company, band and the requisite backstage personnel, even the a frugal ad budget for a major musical, and what might be considered a typical rent deal for the St. James, there's just no way this show comes in under $500K without waivers or concessions. And if they're spending extra on advertising, it's even higher.
Also, a reminder that a show's nut is strictly its breakeven point -- the net gross it needs to do to pay all its bills and minimum royalties with no profit. If a show's nut really was $420K and it did $612K, it would not have $200K in usable cash in the bank. Likely 40% or so of that would be payable in royalty overages, so more like $115K or so (unless the show utilized a royalty structure that permitted amortization of production costs within the royalty calculation).
Finally, a reminder that AI only did $612K gross gross, which likely nets out to $550-$560K net. So they probably broke even but not much better. Not a disaster, but not where they want to be at this stage of their run and not necessarily the best indicator of what's to come in the Fall.
"No matter how much you want the part, never let 'em see you sweat." -- Old Dry Idea commercial
why is everyone so surprised by AI's numbers? the hype of this show on broadway is over. everyone who wants to see it has seen it for the most part. don't get me wrong I certainly hope it runs for a while.