Okay...it has been a rather long, rather intruiging, somewhat disapointing, but overall another exciting year of Broadway Theatre. Here are my FINAL Tony Award Nomination Predictions:
barring any stange or completely out of the blue choices made at next mondays Tony Voter meeting, these are my picks. The actors/directors in LARGE print are changes made from my picks last week.
* are my favorites in each category to take home the top prize.
MUSICAL *The Drowsy Chaperone The Color Purple Jersey Boys The Wedding Singer
PLAY *History Boys L. of Inishmore Shining City Rabbit Hole
LEAD ACTRESS/MUSICAL *Patti Lupone - ST LaChanze - CP MARIA FRIEDMAN - WIW Kelli O'Hara - PG Sutton Foster - DC
LEAD ACTOR in a MUSICAL Harry Connick Jr - PG *Michael Cerveris - ST John Lloyd Young - JB Bob Martin - DC ALAN CUMMING - TPO
LEAD ACTOR in a PLAY BRIAN F. O'BYRNE - SC *OLIVER PLATT - SC David Wilmot - TLOI Richard Griffiths - THB Ralph Fiennes - FH
LEAD ACTRESS in a PLAY *Cynthia Nixon - RH Lisa Kron - Well LYNN REDGRAVE - TCW KATE BURTON - TCW Judy Kaye - Souviener
MUSICAL REVIVAL Three Penny Opera *Swenny Todd The Pajama Game
PLAY REVIVAL *Awake and Sing The Caine Mutiny Court Marshall Faith Healer Absurd Person Singular
FEATURED ACTOR in a MUSICAL Manoel Felciano - ST Jim Dale - TPO Danny Burstein - DC Christian Hoff - TJB *Daniel Reichard - TJB
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL *Beth Leavel - TDC Georgia Engel - TDC Felicia P. Fields - TCP Megan Lawerence - TPG Elisabeth Withers-Mendes - TCP
SCORE THE WOMAN IN WHITE *THE COLOR PURPLE THE DROWSY CHAPERONE THE WEDDING SINGER
BOOK THE COLOR PURPLE JERSEY BOYS *THE DROWSY CHAPERONE THE WOMAN IN WHITE
SET/MUSICAL THE COLOR PURPLE *THE DROWSY CHAPERONE THE WOMAN IN WHITE SWEENY TODD
SET/PLAY *RABBIT HOLE SEASCAPE THE HISTORY BOYS AWAKE AND SING
COSTUMES/MUSICAL THE COLOR PURPLE *THE DROWSY CHAPERONE THE WEDDING SINGER THE PAJAMA GAME
COSTUMES/PLAY *AWAKE AND SING SEASCAPE L. OF INISHMORE CAINE MUNTINY COURT MARSHALL
LIGHTS/MUSICAL THE COLOR PURPLE TARZAN THE DROWSY CHAPERONE *SWEENY TODD
LIGHTS/PLAY *AWAKE AND SING L. OF INISHMORE RABBIT HOLE SHINING CITY
DIRECTOR/MUSICAL KATHLEEN MARSHALL - PG *JOHN DOYLE - ST CASEY NICHOLAW - DC DES MCANUFF - JB
DIRECTOR/PLAY Daniel Sullivan - RH Wilson Milam - LOI *Nicholas Hytner - HB ROBERT FALLS - SC
FEATURED ACTRESS in a PLAY *Tyne Daly - RH Jane Houdeshell - Well Martha Plimpton - SC CHERRY JONES - FH Francis de la Tour - THB
FEATURED ACTOR in a PLAY *IAN MCDIARMID - FH Stephen Campbell Moore - THB Dominic Cooper - THB PETER SCAVAVINO - SC SAMUEL BARNETT - THB
ORCHESTRATIONS *The Pajama Game Sweeny Todd The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone
CHOREOGRAPHY *Kathleen Marshall - TPG Donald Byrd - TCP Casey Nicholaw - TDC Maurice Hines - HF
That's why I've yet to set these in as a Final Predictions.
I wasn't 100% sure about the Shining City guys.
Absurd Person Singular is just a personal choice over Seascape...although that would not disapoint me being nominated either.
and again...though in a decent year, I wouldn't nominate WELL or SHINING CITY for best play, SC is the lessor of two evils...and will continue to run long after the Tonys as compared to the dying and sickly WELL. though WELL is a true blue American bread play compared to the non-american SHINING CITY...so a case could be made for either, I guess.
As for Jones being submitted for Featured...do the really want to have no competiton in the Lead Actres category at all?
Actually too, I think you've left off two performers in Featured Actor in a Play that I feel may be locks for nominations (or possble wins): Samuel Barnett for The History Boys and Ian McDiarmid for Faith Healer.
Barnett probably has the most stage time of the History Boys and has that beautiful scene with Richard Griffiths at the end of Act One.
Ian McDiarmid received terrific reviews for his performance...only thing that might hurt him is that those who leave at intermission of Faith Healer (and there are a few...) will not see him.
Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.
I have a feeling choreography will go to Maurice Hines for Hot Feet, considering that it's a 2 and half hour dance musical. Twyla Tharp one for the same reason for Movin' Out. Just a feeling though; you could be right.
Also, I think Rob Ashford will be nominated for choreography for The Wedding Singer over Casey Nicholaw for The Drowsy Chaperone.
Updated On: 5/6/06 at 09:20 AM
The wolrd can sptop now. We have LaCageFans TONY NOMINATION PREDICTIONS!
Tahnks LaCageFan. As usuall, your definately on tarrget.
(Some thinngs never cahnge.]
"Winning a Tony this year is like winning Best Attendance in third grade: no one will care but the winner and their mom."
-Kad
"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
Smaxie: Baring the ruling of the Nominating process...those would be my next two in line in lieu of the SC guys for F. Actor in a play. That was a tough category for me to call...my brain was getting fried by that point.
And if Jones is submitted Featured, the featured actress race will be sooooo much more interesting than the lead actress.
Featured Actress in a Play is indeed tough. Ben Brantley took a swipe or two at Cherry in his review of Faith Healer, and I'm not sure whether she would win two years in a row. So, it may come down to a three way race between Tyne Daly, Jayne Houdyshell and Frances de la Tour (aka the Glamour Trio). Any of those ladies could win, I think. Tyne is hurt a bit in that her play is no longer running, though I'm sure her performance still stands out for the voters that saw her. But if it comes down to Jayne vs. Frances, it could be Jayne if the voters want to give something to Well (that is, if the voters actually go to see Well, which is not always easy when a show is visibly struggling), or Frances, if the voters get History Boys fever.
Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.
There is certainly a case for all 3 of those ladies:
Daly in my eyes gave the best performance and hopefully that will be remembered...
Houdysell was indeed the best thing about WELL, but as you said - will Tony voters really go see a play that is about to shut its doors at any moment?
And de la Tour is hysterically funny in HISTORY BOYS, and if the History Boys fever spreads...she could win - but the role is soooo one note and not all that involved in the play.
That will be an interesting race though.
And if Jones is indeed Featured...i'd then get rid of Rush from my predictions and add Kate Burton for her turn last summer in THE CONSTANT WIFE in the Lead Actress field.
Elisabeth is certainly my second pic in that category. But Beth Leavel is a a consumate Broadway vet, who is adored by many a fan and won raves for Drowsy is some of the reviews.
Both are deserving, but Leavel is a personal favorite and a wonderful stage actress who needs a Tony...and this is her time to shine.
Next in my eyes, after Elisabeth, would be Felicia Fields, followed by Megan Lawerence and finally Georgia Engel.
I would bet Sir Antony Sher gets a nod over Slattery.
Ivanek might be featured rather than lead (Michael Moriarty who played Queeg in the last revival in the 80s was nominated for featured).
I would say that SWEENEY is a lock to win orchestrations.
There's NO way Debra Rush is going be remembered and get a nomination.
Samuel Barnett will very likely get a nod (O'Byrne is Lead).
Ian McDiarmid got the best reviews of the three actors in FAITH HEALER and having seen his performance last night, it's obvious that not only will he be nominated, but he's probably the odds-on favorite to win (The History Boys actors will probably split their vote)
I also think Seascape wins for costumes.
Suzanne Somers will NOT get a nomination. She was an embarassment. The Tonys will likely simply hand the award to Sarah Jones (they've done this in the past).
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
Although these are only predictions, I have a gut feeling that Jersey will take Best Musical, John Lloyd Young will get Best Actor over Cerveris, and Christian Hoff will get Best Featured Actor, but hey I don't know. ________________________________________________________________ "There is alot more to me than there is to me. Stop the World, I want to get on!" -The Producers
My guess is that the Replacement Tony will go to Eileen Atkins and/or Jonathan Pryce. But, given it's the first year, it's a hard category to predict.
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
I disagree on two points. The first is that in the Best Actress for a Musical catergory that Maria Friedman will be nominated. She won't win but she will be nominated. Second while I think that Michael Cervis was great in the role I would not rule out Bob Martin. He's on stage for the entire time and the show rest on his character. So i think he might pull a win. We'll see.
Margo: Agreed that Sir Anthony was brilliant, but I just don't think he'll be remembered. Which is ashame, because he was great. But...in the same case as Debra Rush...it just seems so long ago, and while they both had great turns - nobody these days seems to be remembering them at all.
I would LOVE it if they just handed the Tony over to Sarah Jones - she certainly deserves it. But putting her in the lead actress category, imo, would have made for a more interesting category.
Forgeting Ian M. was a mistake on my part. By the time I got to that category my head was drawing blanks. I'll change it when I change the thread to my final predictions later this week after the exact placement is decided by the nominators. The Court Marshall/Shining City/Cherry Jones things have me wavering a bit on some categories.
As far as Jersey Boys go...I hope to god it doesn't take the top prize. The musical theatre razzle dazzle fan in me wants nothing more than the little show that could (The Drowsy Chaperone) to win that top prize. It's a true gem in such a lackluster season. And while nothing much this season brimmed with orginality, it's far more delicious than the over hyped jukebox Jersey Boys any night of the week. JMHO.
So is your prediction that Daniel Reichard will win featured actor just giving JB *something* because you don't think it will/should win the bigger awards? I love him but isn't the award more likely to go to Mano or Christian?
"I'm the STAR!"--Daniel Reichard during Glory Daze sound check
Musical Jersey Boys The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Wedding Singer
Play Rabbit Hole The History Boys The Lieutenant of Inishmore Well
Musical Revival Sweeney Todd The Pajama Game The Threepenny Opera
Play Revival A Touch of the Poet Awake and Sing! Faith Healer The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial Wild Card (to replace Poet): The Constant Wife
Lead Actress in a Musical Kelli O’Hara - The Pajama Game LaChanze - The Color Purple Maria Friedman - The Woman in White Patti LuPone - Sweeney Todd Sutton Foster - The Drowsy Chaperone Wild Card (to replace Maria): Nellie McKay - The Threepenny Opera
Lead Actor in a Musical Alan Cumming - The Threepenny Opera Bob Martin - The Drowsy Chaperone Harry Connick, Jr. - The Pajama Game John Lloyd Young - Jersey Boys Michael Cerveris - Sweeney Todd
Lead Actor in a Play Antony Sher - Primo David Wilmot - The Lieutenant of Inishmore Ralph Fiennes - Faith Healer Richard Griffiths - The History Boys Zeljko Ivanek - The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial
Lead Actress in a Play Cynthia Nixon - Rabbit Hole Judy Kaye - Souvenir Julia Roberts - Three Days of Rain Kate Burton - The Constant Wife Zoe Wanamaker - Awake and Sing!
Featured Actor in a Musical Chester Gregory III - Tarzan Danny Burstein - The Drowsy Chaperone Jim Dale - The Threepenny Opera Manoel Felciano - Sweeney Todd Michael McKean - The Pajama Game
Featured Actress in a Musical Amy Spanger - The Wedding Singer Beth Leavel - The Drowsy Chaperone Cyndi Lauper - The Threepenny Opera Elizabeth Withers-Mendes - The Color Purple Felicia P. Fields - The Color Purple
Featured Actor in a Play Bradley Cooper - Three Days of Rain Domhnall Gleeson - The Lieutenant of Inishmore Ian McDiarmid - Faith Healer Peter Gerety - The Lieutenant of Inishmore Samuel Barnett - The History Boys
Featured Actress in a Play Cherry Jones - Faith Healer Frances de la Tour - The History Boys Jayne Houdyshell - Well Lynn Redgrave - The Constant Wife Tyne Daly - Rabbit Hole
Best Director (Musical) Casey Nicholaw - The Drowsy Chaperone John Doyle - Sweeney Todd John Rando - The Wedding Singer Kathleen Marshall - The Pajama Game
Best Director (Play) Jerry Zaks - The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial Nicholas Hytner - The History Boys Rufus Norris - Festen Wilson Milam - The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Best Choreography Aszure Barton - The Threepenny Opera Casey Nicholaw - The Drowsy Chaperone Kathleen Marshall - The Pajama Game Rob Ashford - The Wedding Singer
Original Score The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Wedding Singer The Woman in White
Original Book The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Wedding Singer The Woman in White Wild Card (replacing Wedding Singer): Jersey Boys
Best Set (Musical) Sweeney Todd The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Wedding Singer
Best Set (Play) Absurd Person Singular Neil Simon’s The Odd Couple Rabbit Hole The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Best Costumes (Musical) The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Pajama Game The Wedding Singer
Best Costumes (Play) A Touch of the Poet Awake and Sing! Edward Albee’s Seascape The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Best Lighting (Musical) Sweeney Todd The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Wedding Singer
Best Lighting (Play) Edward Albee’s Seascape Festen The History Boys The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Best Orchestrations Sweeney Todd The Color Purple The Drowsy Chaperone The Pajama Game