LaCageFans: FINAL TONY NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

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LaCageAuxFollesFan2
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Okay...it has been a rather long, rather intruiging, somewhat disapointing, but overall another exciting year of Broadway Theatre. Here are my FINAL Tony Award Nomination Predictions:

barring any stange or completely out of the blue choices made at next mondays Tony Voter meeting, these are my picks. The actors/directors in LARGE print are changes made from my picks last week.

* are my favorites in each category to take home the top prize.


MUSICAL
*The Drowsy Chaperone
The Color Purple
Jersey Boys
The Wedding Singer

PLAY
*History Boys
L. of Inishmore
Shining City
Rabbit Hole

LEAD ACTRESS/MUSICAL
*Patti Lupone - ST
LaChanze - CP
MARIA FRIEDMAN - WIW
Kelli O'Hara - PG
Sutton Foster - DC

LEAD ACTOR in a MUSICAL
Harry Connick Jr - PG
*Michael Cerveris - ST
John Lloyd Young - JB
Bob Martin - DC
ALAN CUMMING - TPO


LEAD ACTOR in a PLAY
BRIAN F. O'BYRNE - SC
*OLIVER PLATT - SC
David Wilmot - TLOI
Richard Griffiths - THB
Ralph Fiennes - FH

LEAD ACTRESS in a PLAY
*Cynthia Nixon - RH
Lisa Kron - Well
LYNN REDGRAVE - TCW
KATE BURTON - TCW
Judy Kaye - Souviener

MUSICAL REVIVAL
Three Penny Opera
*Swenny Todd
The Pajama Game

PLAY REVIVAL
*Awake and Sing
The Caine Mutiny Court Marshall
Faith Healer
Absurd Person Singular

FEATURED ACTOR in a MUSICAL
Manoel Felciano - ST
Jim Dale - TPO
Danny Burstein - DC
Christian Hoff - TJB
*Daniel Reichard - TJB

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
*Beth Leavel - TDC
Georgia Engel - TDC
Felicia P. Fields - TCP
Megan Lawerence - TPG
Elisabeth Withers-Mendes - TCP

SCORE
THE WOMAN IN WHITE
*THE COLOR PURPLE
THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
THE WEDDING SINGER

BOOK
THE COLOR PURPLE
JERSEY BOYS
*THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
THE WOMAN IN WHITE

SET/MUSICAL
THE COLOR PURPLE
*THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
THE WOMAN IN WHITE
SWEENY TODD

SET/PLAY
*RABBIT HOLE
SEASCAPE
THE HISTORY BOYS
AWAKE AND SING

COSTUMES/MUSICAL
THE COLOR PURPLE
*THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
THE WEDDING SINGER
THE PAJAMA GAME

COSTUMES/PLAY
*AWAKE AND SING
SEASCAPE
L. OF INISHMORE
CAINE MUNTINY COURT MARSHALL

LIGHTS/MUSICAL
THE COLOR PURPLE
TARZAN
THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
*SWEENY TODD

LIGHTS/PLAY
*AWAKE AND SING
L. OF INISHMORE
RABBIT HOLE
SHINING CITY

DIRECTOR/MUSICAL
KATHLEEN MARSHALL - PG
*JOHN DOYLE - ST
CASEY NICHOLAW - DC
DES MCANUFF - JB

DIRECTOR/PLAY
Daniel Sullivan - RH
Wilson Milam - LOI
*Nicholas Hytner - HB
ROBERT FALLS - SC

FEATURED ACTRESS in a PLAY
*Tyne Daly - RH
Jane Houdeshell - Well
Martha Plimpton - SC
CHERRY JONES - FH
Francis de la Tour - THB

FEATURED ACTOR in a PLAY
*IAN MCDIARMID - FH
Stephen Campbell Moore - THB
Dominic Cooper - THB
PETER SCAVAVINO - SC
SAMUEL BARNETT - THB

ORCHESTRATIONS
*The Pajama Game
Sweeny Todd
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone

CHOREOGRAPHY
*Kathleen Marshall - TPG
Donald Byrd - TCP
Casey Nicholaw - TDC
Maurice Hines - HF

SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT
Bridge & Tunnel



Updated On: 5/11/06 at 08:58 AM
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Smaxie
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I'd imagine that Seascape would be nominated for Revival of a Play before Absurd Person Singular ever would.

Cherry Jones is being submitted for Featured Actress.

I believe Oliver Platt and Brian O'Byrne will both be considered in the Leading Actor category.

And I suspect that Well will get nominated for Best Play over Shining City.
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LaCageAuxFollesFan2
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That's why I've yet to set these in as a Final Predictions.

I wasn't 100% sure about the Shining City guys.

Absurd Person Singular is just a personal choice over Seascape...although that would not disapoint me being nominated either.

and again...though in a decent year, I wouldn't nominate WELL or SHINING CITY for best play, SC is the lessor of two evils...and will continue to run long after the Tonys as compared to the dying and sickly WELL. though WELL is a true blue American bread play compared to the non-american SHINING CITY...so a case could be made for either, I guess.

As for Jones being submitted for Featured...do the really want to have no competiton in the Lead Actres category at all?


Updated On: 5/6/06 at 09:11 AM
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Smaxie
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Actually too, I think you've left off two performers in Featured Actor in a Play that I feel may be locks for nominations (or possble wins): Samuel Barnett for The History Boys and Ian McDiarmid for Faith Healer.

Barnett probably has the most stage time of the History Boys and has that beautiful scene with Richard Griffiths at the end of Act One.

Ian McDiarmid received terrific reviews for his performance...only thing that might hurt him is that those who leave at intermission of Faith Healer (and there are a few...) will not see him.
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bjh2114
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I have a feeling choreography will go to Maurice Hines for Hot Feet, considering that it's a 2 and half hour dance musical. Twyla Tharp one for the same reason for Movin' Out. Just a feeling though; you could be right. re: LaCageFans: TONY NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Also, I think Rob Ashford will be nominated for choreography for The Wedding Singer over Casey Nicholaw for The Drowsy Chaperone.
Updated On: 5/6/06 at 09:20 AM
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Wanna Be A Foster
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The wolrd can sptop now. We have LaCageFans TONY NOMINATION PREDICTIONS!

Tahnks LaCageFan. As usuall, your definately on tarrget.

(Some thinngs never cahnge.]
"Winning a Tony this year is like winning Best Attendance in third grade: no one will care but the winner and their mom."
-Kad

"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
Updated On: 5/6/06 at 09:20 AM
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LaCageAuxFollesFan2
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Smaxie: Baring the ruling of the Nominating process...those would be my next two in line in lieu of the SC guys for F. Actor in a play. That was a tough category for me to call...my brain was getting fried by that point.

And if Jones is submitted Featured, the featured actress race will be sooooo much more interesting than the lead actress.
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Smaxie
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Featured Actress in a Play is indeed tough. Ben Brantley took a swipe or two at Cherry in his review of Faith Healer, and I'm not sure whether she would win two years in a row. So, it may come down to a three way race between Tyne Daly, Jayne Houdyshell and Frances de la Tour (aka the Glamour Trio). Any of those ladies could win, I think. Tyne is hurt a bit in that her play is no longer running, though I'm sure her performance still stands out for the voters that saw her. But if it comes down to Jayne vs. Frances, it could be Jayne if the voters want to give something to Well (that is, if the voters actually go to see Well, which is not always easy when a show is visibly struggling), or Frances, if the voters get History Boys fever.
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Updated On: 5/6/06 at 09:35 AM
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There is certainly a case for all 3 of those ladies:

Daly in my eyes gave the best performance and hopefully that will be remembered...

Houdysell was indeed the best thing about WELL, but as you said - will Tony voters really go see a play that is about to shut its doors at any moment?

And de la Tour is hysterically funny in HISTORY BOYS, and if the History Boys fever spreads...she could win - but the role is soooo one note and not all that involved in the play.

That will be an interesting race though.

And if Jones is indeed Featured...i'd then get rid of Rush from my predictions and add Kate Burton for her turn last summer in THE CONSTANT WIFE in the Lead Actress field.
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I'm pulling for Elisabeth for Featured Actress in a Musical.
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Elisabeth is certainly my second pic in that category. But Beth Leavel is a a consumate Broadway vet, who is adored by many a fan and won raves for Drowsy is some of the reviews.

Both are deserving, but Leavel is a personal favorite and a wonderful stage actress who needs a Tony...and this is her time to shine.

Next in my eyes, after Elisabeth, would be Felicia Fields, followed by Megan Lawerence and finally Georgia Engel.
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I would bet Sir Antony Sher gets a nod over Slattery.

Ivanek might be featured rather than lead (Michael Moriarty who played Queeg in the last revival in the 80s was nominated for featured).

I would say that SWEENEY is a lock to win orchestrations.

There's NO way Debra Rush is going be remembered and get a nomination.

Samuel Barnett will very likely get a nod (O'Byrne is Lead).

Ian McDiarmid got the best reviews of the three actors in FAITH HEALER and having seen his performance last night, it's obvious that not only will he be nominated, but he's probably the odds-on favorite to win (The History Boys actors will probably split their vote)

I also think Seascape wins for costumes.

Suzanne Somers will NOT get a nomination. She was an embarassment. The Tonys will likely simply hand the award to Sarah Jones (they've done this in the past).



"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie [http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/] "The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
Updated On: 5/6/06 at 12:28 PM
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Margo, do you think there will be a Replacement Tony handed out this year? And to who?
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Although these are only predictions, I have a gut feeling that Jersey will take Best Musical, John Lloyd Young will get Best Actor over Cerveris, and Christian Hoff will get Best Featured Actor, but hey I don't know.
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MargoChanning
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My guess is that the Replacement Tony will go to Eileen Atkins and/or Jonathan Pryce. But, given it's the first year, it's a hard category to predict.
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie [http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/] "The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
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What are the dates for the Tonys? Nominations and the actual show?
MargoChanning
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Nominations: May 16
Awards: June 11
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie [http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/] "The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
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Thanks Margo.

So Piazza & The Tonys are on the same night?
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Piazza is June 15th, right?
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Oh okay, I tried searching, but came up with nothing.

That makes me feel better. Good to know they're within days of each other though. It will be a good week.
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Yes it is the 15th.
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I disagree on two points. The first is that in the Best Actress for a Musical catergory that Maria Friedman will be nominated. She won't win but she will be nominated. Second while I think that Michael Cervis was great in the role I would not rule out Bob Martin. He's on stage for the entire time and the show rest on his character. So i think he might pull a win. We'll see.
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Margo: Agreed that Sir Anthony was brilliant, but I just don't think he'll be remembered. Which is ashame, because he was great. But...in the same case as Debra Rush...it just seems so long ago, and while they both had great turns - nobody these days seems to be remembering them at all.

I would LOVE it if they just handed the Tony over to Sarah Jones - she certainly deserves it. But putting her in the lead actress category, imo, would have made for a more interesting category.

Forgeting Ian M. was a mistake on my part. By the time I got to that category my head was drawing blanks. I'll change it when I change the thread to my final predictions later this week after the exact placement is decided by the nominators. The Court Marshall/Shining City/Cherry Jones things have me wavering a bit on some categories.

As far as Jersey Boys go...I hope to god it doesn't take the top prize. The musical theatre razzle dazzle fan in me wants nothing more than the little show that could (The Drowsy Chaperone) to win that top prize. It's a true gem in such a lackluster season. And while nothing much this season brimmed with orginality, it's far more delicious than the over hyped jukebox Jersey Boys any night of the week. JMHO.

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So is your prediction that Daniel Reichard will win featured actor just giving JB *something* because you don't think it will/should win the bigger awards? I love him but isn't the award more likely to go to Mano or Christian?
"I'm the STAR!"--Daniel Reichard during Glory Daze sound check
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My predictions:

Musical
Jersey Boys
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Wedding Singer

Play
Rabbit Hole
The History Boys
The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Well

Musical Revival
Sweeney Todd
The Pajama Game
The Threepenny Opera

Play Revival
A Touch of the Poet
Awake and Sing!
Faith Healer
The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial
Wild Card (to replace Poet): The Constant Wife

Lead Actress in a Musical
Kelli O’Hara - The Pajama Game
LaChanze - The Color Purple
Maria Friedman - The Woman in White
Patti LuPone - Sweeney Todd
Sutton Foster - The Drowsy Chaperone
Wild Card (to replace Maria): Nellie McKay - The Threepenny Opera

Lead Actor in a Musical
Alan Cumming - The Threepenny Opera
Bob Martin - The Drowsy Chaperone
Harry Connick, Jr. - The Pajama Game
John Lloyd Young - Jersey Boys
Michael Cerveris - Sweeney Todd

Lead Actor in a Play
Antony Sher - Primo
David Wilmot - The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Ralph Fiennes - Faith Healer
Richard Griffiths - The History Boys
Zeljko Ivanek - The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial


Lead Actress in a Play
Cynthia Nixon - Rabbit Hole
Judy Kaye - Souvenir
Julia Roberts - Three Days of Rain
Kate Burton - The Constant Wife
Zoe Wanamaker - Awake and Sing!

Featured Actor in a Musical
Chester Gregory III - Tarzan
Danny Burstein - The Drowsy Chaperone
Jim Dale - The Threepenny Opera
Manoel Felciano - Sweeney Todd
Michael McKean - The Pajama Game

Featured Actress in a Musical
Amy Spanger - The Wedding Singer
Beth Leavel - The Drowsy Chaperone
Cyndi Lauper - The Threepenny Opera
Elizabeth Withers-Mendes - The Color Purple
Felicia P. Fields - The Color Purple

Featured Actor in a Play
Bradley Cooper - Three Days of Rain
Domhnall Gleeson - The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Ian McDiarmid - Faith Healer
Peter Gerety - The Lieutenant of Inishmore
Samuel Barnett - The History Boys

Featured Actress in a Play
Cherry Jones - Faith Healer
Frances de la Tour - The History Boys
Jayne Houdyshell - Well
Lynn Redgrave - The Constant Wife
Tyne Daly - Rabbit Hole

Best Director (Musical)
Casey Nicholaw - The Drowsy Chaperone
John Doyle - Sweeney Todd
John Rando - The Wedding Singer
Kathleen Marshall - The Pajama Game



Best Director (Play)
Jerry Zaks - The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial
Nicholas Hytner - The History Boys
Rufus Norris - Festen
Wilson Milam - The Lieutenant of Inishmore

Best Choreography
Aszure Barton - The Threepenny Opera
Casey Nicholaw - The Drowsy Chaperone
Kathleen Marshall - The Pajama Game
Rob Ashford - The Wedding Singer

Original Score
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Wedding Singer
The Woman in White

Original Book
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Wedding Singer
The Woman in White
Wild Card (replacing Wedding Singer): Jersey Boys

Best Set (Musical)
Sweeney Todd
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Wedding Singer

Best Set (Play)
Absurd Person Singular
Neil Simon’s The Odd Couple
Rabbit Hole
The Lieutenant of Inishmore

Best Costumes (Musical)
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Pajama Game
The Wedding Singer



Best Costumes (Play)
A Touch of the Poet
Awake and Sing!
Edward Albee’s Seascape
The Lieutenant of Inishmore

Best Lighting (Musical)
Sweeney Todd
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Wedding Singer

Best Lighting (Play)
Edward Albee’s Seascape
Festen
The History Boys
The Lieutenant of Inishmore

Best Orchestrations
Sweeney Todd
The Color Purple
The Drowsy Chaperone
The Pajama Game

Updated On: 5/6/06 at 08:07 PM