How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
#0How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 7:56pm
Phantom
Beauty and the Beast
Rent
Chicago
The Lion King.
I am curious too see how much longer you guys think these smash hits have left on Bway?
My only hope is that Chicago makes 10 years, which would be awesome.
So what do ya think?
millie_dillmount
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/22/04
#1re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 7:56pmI don't know, but either Rent or Chicago will be the next to go.
"We like to snark around here. Sometimes we actually talk about theater...but we try not to let that get in our way." - dramamama611
#2re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 7:58pmChicago will be there next year.
millie_dillmount
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/22/04
#3re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 8:00pmAh, yes, it will. I never did say how longer each will run.
"We like to snark around here. Sometimes we actually talk about theater...but we try not to let that get in our way." - dramamama611
Matt_G
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/1/04
#4re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 8:00pmI do hope they retire RENT soon. It needs it's beauty sleep.
"Noah, someday we'll talk again. But there's things we'll never say. That sorrow deep inside you. It inside me, too. And it never go away. You be okay. You'll learn how to lose things..."
#5re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 8:01pmChicago is still performing to full houses daily, I have no doubt it will be there next year. Updated On: 8/5/04 at 08:01 PM
millie_dillmount
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/22/04
#6re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 8:03pm
This is the order in which each show will end, in my opinion:
Rent
Chicago
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom
Lion King
(Or Lion King, then Phantom, although Lion King is a way more popular tourist attraction)
"We like to snark around here. Sometimes we actually talk about theater...but we try not to let that get in our way." - dramamama611
#7re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:12pmRENT can't close before I'm in it! lol
#8re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:14pm
Come September 6th, Rent will be the only one of my favorite shows still running. When it closes, I will simply crawl into a hole, shrivel up and die.... so I really hope that doesn't happen too soon.
Really though, all kidding aside, Rent is in serious trouble. I don't think it has much time left, and it really seems to be falling apart. That breaks my heart.
jayem1968
Stand-by Joined: 6/9/04
#9re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:16pmThe Lion King will run forever....ye gads! Like Cats!
Everybody goes down well with beer.
Stand-by Joined: 12/31/69
#10re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:31pmI agree with millie. Rent's definately the next to go (unless that movie does anything for it), but I don't see Phantom or Lion King going ANYWHERE ANYTIME soon. Those are two of the shows people come to New York specifically to see. Plus, Disney has so much money they can keep their shows as long as they want.
LadyGuenevere
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/28/03
#11re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:34pm
Phantom - 3 years (or until the whole movie thing fades out)
Beauty and the Beast - 2 years
Rent - 3 months. (I wish, it's just time to go, Rent.)
Chicago - 3-5 years
The Lion King - I agree, unfortunately, FOREVER!
I'm pretty bad at guessing, though. If the Phantom movie bombs, it may close earlier. And Disney likes to live forever.
timote316
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/04
#12re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:36pm
"Plus, Disney has so much money they can keep their shows as long as they want."
Didn't work for Aida, unfortunately.
I love the show so much, but Rent is likely to go next. If at all possible, tho, I'd imagine they would try to keep the show open until the movie comes out, see if it revives it. It really is a shame, because Rent is one of those shows that EVERYONE should see, it teaches such a great lesson, that of acceptance and awareness.
LadyGuenevere
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/28/03
#13re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:38pmRent, which I do like, is unfortunately too dated. I think that they may update the movie (if that's really going to happen), and I don't know what that will do to the audience numbers.
ProducersFan
Broadway Star Joined: 7/25/04
#14re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:38pm
Actually, Eisner has all the money (the way he keeps upping his salary and those of his fellow board members).
~Jessica
"If you start from a place of joy and charm, you can get away with a lot in the second act. It may be that that's my life. I'm not sure."
~Roger Bart
#15re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:43pm
RENT leaving *tear, tear*
I haven't even gone to broadway to see it. It needs to wait until I finally get to NY then it can leave. As long as I have my OBC recording, it will always live on in my heart. Here is my guess on who is leaving:
RENT (Convulsions from crying)
Beauty and the Beast
Chicago
Lion King
Phantom (It is tradition to MANY tourists)
"They're eating her and then they're going to eat me. OH MY GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!" -Troll 2
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/31/69
#16re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:43pm
True about Aida. But, then again, Lion King and B&tB can target a younger audience as well as an older one and Aida really couldn't do that.
I hate Eisner. Hate him. And now he owns the Muppets.
millie_dillmount
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/22/04
#17re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:45pmAlso, Beauty and the Beast and the Lion King were already movies. Aida wasn't; it was an opera.
"We like to snark around here. Sometimes we actually talk about theater...but we try not to let that get in our way." - dramamama611
Broadwaygirl4life
Broadway Star Joined: 1/8/04
#18re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:46pm
hugs luvtheEmcee it will be ok!
I do think it is in trouble, it can't close though just yet I still need to see it!
"[My son]'s really into my music, but one day we were listening to Billy [Joel] in the car and he said, 'Daddy, I think Billy's songs are a little better than yours." (Michael Cavanaugh)
Broadway Star Joined: 12/31/69
#19re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:46pmVery, very true.
#20re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 9:52pm
I think The Lion King is the kind of show that will long outrun the welcome of its stay- it already has in my mind but everyone wants to see it because its Disney and kids can go to it, even though I can't imagine a kid not being utterly bored.
I think Beauty and the Beast is a more kid friendly show and I'd like to see that run longer than The Lion King. I don't think that'll happen unless they can keep pumping it with stars that kids will like.
Phantom will run itself into the ground eventually but I think Cameron will keep it open as long as humanly possible.
Rent, well, I think Rent should be closed already but I would have closed it years ago because I don't like the show.
And hang on, when did you win the discus?
Plum
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/4/04
#21re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 10:20pm
At least The Lion King uses some imagination- Beauty and the Beast is like the movie in live-action format. Which, I suppose, is what some people are looking for. But even as a Disney-loving 12-year-old I found it rather boring.
And I think Rent should be the next to close- it hasn't had much spark for a while. But considering it's low running costs, who knows?
WiCkEDrOcKS
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/13/04
#22re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 10:24pm
Phantom=2 and a half years
Beauty and the Beast=2 years
Rent=1 year
Chicago=1 and a half years
The Lion King=6-10 years (unfortunately)
Bohoboy
Understudy Joined: 5/9/04
#23re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 10:46pm
in terms of ticket sales, Rent seems likely to be the first long-running show to close... the Nederlander however is not a sought after space. The theatre was dark for 3 years prior to Rent's transfer... and they did very little to spruce up the place... the Nederlander has always felt like a mix of a high school gymnasium and a warehouse with carpet and seats. I can't imagine that the space costs nearly as much as the other theatres owned by the Nederlanders. I once heard that Rent only had to sell half it's house (including tkts ticket sales) to break even for the week... lately it's been in the mid to high 70's in capacity. And they've been creative with stunt casting... not to mention the money that the producers got for the Avenue Q deal in Vegas... They have money to spare, I think they understood Larson and would put more money into an already profitable venture. I think it has about a year and a half left... more if this movie with Chris Columbus gets made(Chris Columbus?! Can you IMAGINE?!?.... sorry that's another thread) or less if the movie is an utter failure by having Chris "Mrs. Doubtfire" Columbus directing it... he doesn't do too well with overly sentimental work... "Stepmom" anyone? ...again... another thread. That being said, if they took the time to re-tool the show, get Greif back in there, it would have a much longer run. Sadly the show is already dated, but I lived in the Mid-West, my sister LOVES Seasons of Love... not sure she ever listened to the rest of it, but she loved that song.. am I sharing too much?
Beauty and the Beast... well, they've certainly set the show up to run for ages since they moved houses. The much smaller Lunt-Fontanne is perfect for this children's theatre piece in it's current downsized version. The fact that the last time I saw it, the cake fork hated every minute of "Be Our Guest" didn't seem to bother the children... nor did the audible gears when the petal drops as the beast dies... (oh crap, should I have put spoiler in the subject line?) But, as Gerard Allesendrini once put it, "Beauty's been decreased", and it's been good for business... no one expects a show to run forever at the Palace... I give Beauty and the Beast 16 enchanting years on Broadway... why? I dunno.. sounds like a good round number.
Is anyone still following this? Chicago. (Overheard when just about every tourist plans their trip to New York) "Oh, but Bill, Chicago is playing... you liked that movie, with that Catherine Zeta Jones. You hum the songs. Let's go and tell everyone that we saw the show on Broadway." And as they sell out just about every performance, this show is here to stay... Good for them. They were struggling before the movie... Bernadette Peters in Gypsy kicked them out of the Shubert, they moved to the Ambassador and crossed their fingers. Even though I was a bit upset at how matter of factly Barry Weissler talked about stunt casting a few days ago in the Times, I have to respect a business man who knows what the people want... Honestly, if this show is ever in trouble, all they have to do is put up enough money to get one of the stars of the movie to do that role on stage... it's here for at least 5 more years.... hot-cha... skidoo.
Phantom.... here's what's great about Phantom. The stage musical will get people in to see the movie musical. If the movie musical is any good, that will get the tourists in to see the stage musical again and everyone will "remember your first time." I'm not sure the preview before "Farenheit 9/11" was such a wise move. Most of the people I was in the theater with laughed... some of them hysterically... not exactly the "first time" you want the movie going audience to remember. But who knows... looks like we're bracing for a movie musical revival and Phantom just might benefit from the genre's popularity. Gotta say, Phantom WILL be the longest running show in Broadway history... it's like Cameron's tri-fecta.
Lion King... Come ON Disney! Give us another show in that magnificent theatre... That being said... kids love it... tourists love it... and to Broadway theatrical producers THAT IS the circle of life, Simba. Don't blame them, blame the fact that when it's capacity fluctuates, it goes from 101.5% to 101.3%.... this show is doing gangbusters, even under a heightened terror alert. I still have to hand it to Disney... they gave Taymor complete control over their most commercial property to date, sans Mickey himself. She did great things visually, and it's still selling out. That being said, I think the show needs an acting coach. Design is not everything. I think this will outlast every other show mentioned here, but will not beat POTO's record... maybe Cats... HA HA HA How fitting.
Please someone let me know you got this far...
Robert
I wish the stage were as narrow as the wire of a tightrope dancer, so that no incompetent would dare step upon it. -Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
Understudy Joined: 12/31/69
#24re: How much longer do you think these shows have left on Broadway?
Posted: 8/5/04 at 10:51pm
Robert, I read it all. I'm out of breath, but I read it 
And I agree. Phantom will beat CATS. It has to. No offence, CAT-lovers, but I can't believe that ran for as long as it did.
Plus, you've got the people like me who have seen the show plenty of times and still goes back for more!
