Predict When These Shows Will Close- Page 3

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 8:26am

Dysquith13 said: "PThespian said: "To me talking about shows closing up shop and putting people out of work is morbid. 

Yes I know it's the reality of theater and no show runs forever, but how about we celebrate the fact that a given show is running, drawing in audiences, and helping people involved it and NYC make money instead of talking about when they are going to be closing? 

I wish you had told me before no one was forcing me to read it. I wouldn't have clicked on the title if I knew that. I certainly wouldn't have felt the need to express my opinion on the topic. 

I feel much better now that I know I don't have to read everything. 

 

Honestly, I feel bad predicting when shows close. It's important to remember that people are being employed by these shows, and reducing them to numbers feels dehumanizing. Genuine thanks for this reminder."

 

What a ridiculous way of thinking. If you really want to live this way, then fine... But make sure you also never discuss the outcome or status of films, television shows and sports teams as many of the employees in those fields depend on the qualitative & quantitative results (box office-ratings-seasons or playoffs-etc.) of said entities. 

[Dysquith13]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 8:31am

I study statistics and film box office. I know this happens and is a reality of theater and art as a whole. I am often obsessed with details and predictions, but it doesn't really dawn on me enough that this cynicism and negativity is in place to ignore a lot of the hard work people have been doing for these shows. (Even poorly recieved ones) - that's why I'm hesitant to focus on the bad anymore.

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 8:39am

Discussing the potential success (or lack thereof) a privately produced, commercial venture/product may have is not negative, mean or cruel. It's business. 

[Patti LuPone FANatic]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 8:48am

I believe that threads like these give the OP a feeling of self importance.  They want to say/do something that makes them stand out.  This approach is one way of doing that, in their minds. 

[Dysquith13]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 9:20am

@Liza's Headband

I know it's not negative, I guess just looking at my posts it's been coming off as a bit vulture-ish, I'm mainly adressing this to myself, since I've been guilty of it. It's important to look at both perspectives, and I feel like I've been too much of a vulture lately.

Honestly, a lot of it comes from anticipation of what will come into the theaters that are vacant, so in a way, it's a rotation of employment. 

[CassandraReads]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 9:25am

trpguyy said: "I'm not kidding. They will not close that show. 

They should. I walked out at intermission a few weeks ago.  

"

 

[CassandraReads]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 9:25am

trpguyy said: "I'm not kidding. They will not close that show. 

They should. I walked out at intermission a few weeks ago.  

"

 

[Sauja]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 9:51am

Every show closes eventually. Would reaction to this thread have been different if it was labeled "Predict how long these shows will run?" Because you have people suggesting that some of these shows will run for another 20+ years. Wondering how long something will last isn't morbid, and it's not rooting for its failure. It's curiosity. And sometimes it's just a matter of wanting new blood on the stage. That doesn't mean you want less jobs on Broadway. It just means you want different people to have a chance. Because believe me, anyone saiying Aladdin will run until 2028 isn't likely thinking about the people currently employed in and by the show--most, if not all, will have changed by then.

 

Aladdin - 2024  (I think Lion King has legs forever and with Frozen coming, Disney will cannibalize itself to an extent. Still--many years left in this yet)
Beautiful - 2024 (Not to pick the same year twice, but I think this will only see its stock go up if and when Jersey Boys closes and it's the one big jukebox show)
The Book of Mormon - 2022 (It's a monstrous success, but I can't see it performing like a Wicked or a Chicago)
Cats - 2020 (It's looking like a hit, but I think it will Les Mis it just because it's so expensive to run)
Chicago - 2019 (I just don't know that  it has all that long left to go.
The Color Purple - Mid-2017. I think they'll get one big star after Erivo but that it will suffer beyond that)
Hamilton - 2037 (Prices dropped a lot on Stubhub when Lin left, but folks are realizing that the star of the show is the show. Settle in for a long, long run!
Jersey Boys - December 2016 (It's had an incredible run, but the numbers are barely there any more. I think we're in the final stretch. 
Kinky Boots - Summer 2017 (ditto)
The Lion King - The Disney standard bearer. I don't see this going anywhere anytime soon. 2040?
On Your Feet - December  2016
Paramour - Summer 2017 (numbers are dropping fast, but unless something wants the theater, they can gut it out for a longish run)
The Phantom of the Opera - Maybe shows CAN run forever. I can't even venture a guess.
School of Rock - 2019. It'll close a hit, but with so much family AND ALW material out there...it's not gonna be another Cats or Phantom
Something Rotten - December 2016 (a show I adore that I suspect is on its last legs.
Waitress - 2019 (A show I adore that I think will have a very solid run--this all depends on casting from here on out)
Wicked - This is HARD. This is the show that I think will be most affected by Frozen coming to Broadway because it has almost the exact same target audience. I'm gonna say 2027. It has years left, but I worry that the tween female audience, while ever replenishing, will eventually be more excited elsewhere)

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 10:09am

Are you really that dense and obtuse? Nowhere in my post did I dictate or command how you, or anyone else, should think. I criticized it but I didn't demand you change it. My criticism is in direct response to your self-righteous indignation, which I can only assume was an attempt to criticize others who are participating on this thread. This has nothing to do with "knowing" anything, however you attempting to connect those dots shows the true intent of your post... and it's completely unrelated to this particular topic but you needed to find a way to just slip it in there. Puhlease. Give me a break. 

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 10:47am

The post you keep referring to wasn't even in response to you. But if you'd like to fight Dysquith's battles for him/her, then sure... go ahead. By the way, this particular section you're pointing to (see below) was absurdist sarcasm simply to illustrate how nonsensical their rationale was.

 

But make sure you also never discuss the outcome or status of films, television shows and sports teams as many of the employees in those fields depend on the qualitative & quantitative results (box office-ratings-seasons or playoffs-etc.) of said entities.

 

 

[BroadwayMan5]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 10:51am

I would like to make it clear that I did not start this thread because of self-indulgence. I wanted to see what others thought (and have really enjoyed reading the guesses of those who did make predictions)

And most of all, I am NOT rooting for shows to close or hoping people are out of work. As someone said, some of these shows I'm predicting will run for another decade or two or more. Most if not all of the people currently involved in those "institution" shows won't be involved by then. As for the shows like On Your Feet, Jersey Boys, Something Rotten - well, not a week goes by in the grosses thread without people speculating about their demises. It's part of the business and I find ratings/grosses for TV and movies very interesting as well. I like all three of those shows I just mentioned but the reality is they probably don't have much longer. Me predicting when they're going to end is not equivalent to me rooting for them to close.

I'm sorry to those who were so offended by this thread but please don't assume I'm coming from a place that I'm not with my decision to post.

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 11:26am

And an usher?

[ozjust4]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 11:42am

Aladdin: 2027
Beautiful: January 2018
The Book of Mormon: Never
Cats: Soon, hopefully
Chicago: Soon, hopefully
The Color Purple: January 2018
Hamilton: Never
Jersey Boys: Not sure, but I have a feeling it will go out the same way Mamma Mia did with a closing announcement months in advance
Kinky Boots: Some point in 2017
The Lion King: Never
On Your Feet: January 2017
Paramour: ?
The Phantom of the Opera: Never
School of Rock: I give it 2 more years so, 2018
Something Rotten: January 2017
Waitress: January 2018
Wicked: Never

Also, "Never" is a figure of speech, I am aware shows have to close eventually.

[Dysquith13]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 11:45am

I didn't mean to imply that anyone was rooting for shows to close, or even that it's wrong, but I felt that I was mainly reflecting on myself. I have been posting a lot about it lately, and I'm probably making a fool of myself even now.
 

I apologize to BroadwayMan for making any false assumptions. I know that predicting a show's closure is not the same as spreading false information or rooting for failure - it can also be a tool to see what new shows arrive on Broadway.

 

And I apologize for oversimplifying and not recoginizing nuances here. Sometimes, this comes from wanting new talent and new stories, new visions to come to stage. With that said, happy analyzing! :)

Updated On: 8/3/16 at 11:45 AM

[CassandraReads]

Posted: 8/3/16 at 11:50am

It's sad that Something Rotten isn't getting the press I believe it deserves and packing the house every day. It's the funniest, smartest show! Love it. I hope it doesn't close soon!