I created a survey for 15 of the 22 categories, in which I ask people to pick who and what YOU want to win, not who you think the Tony voters will pick — preference, not prediction.
The picks so far make it clear that many of these categories are very competitive (if that wasn't clear already), such as best lead actress in a musical.
So far, out of the six categories in the survey in which there's a nominee from Hamilton, there are two categories in which the Hamilton nominee is not in the lead.