What's Going to Win Best Musical?

[Lumiere2]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 10:51am

So we're now eleven weeks to the Tony nominations, and just over two months until the cutoff. (I also understand there's more than 20 openings between then and now.)

What's everyone's first thoughts on the Best Musical trophy this year? Anyone ready to call who they think is going to win?

I think it's no surprise Dear Evan Hansen is the frontrunner. The only two new musicals even close at this stage in the game are Come From Away and Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet 1812.

With DEH at standing room, the wild buzz for Natasha dying down a bit, and previews for CFA starting Saturday, any thoughts on the race?

Having seen them all (I saw CFA in both Washington and Toronto), I'd say this may be pretty tight between Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away. I think they're both going to take home a number of Tonys each. (My guesses now would be Best Actor, Best Score, and Orchestrations to DEH, and Best Director, Best Book and Best Supporting Actress to CFA.)

But as for Best Musical? I think this is going to be closer than most people are expecting.

[AC126748]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 10:54am

Dear Evan Hansen, by a mile. Its momentum will not be dying down any time soon--weekend performances are basically sold out until summer, and the availability for other performances is extremely limited. Combine that with near-universal rave reviews, and it feels unstoppable. I expect it will win Best Musical, Best Actor, Best Score, and Best Book, perhaps more.

Updated On: 2/14/17 at 10:54 AM

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 10:55am

I'm pulling hard for Great Comet!

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 10:58am

EVAN HANSEN has the momentum right now, but I think a lot of people are underestimating GROUNDHOG DAY.

[MinnieFay]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:01am

Frankly, I'd be surprised if Come From Away is still running come Tony time.  It looks like it'll be this season's HANDS ON A HARDBODY.

Updated On: 2/14/17 at 11:01 AM

[Margo319]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:01am

Come From Away is incredible and an extremely important show, especially in New York.   Rooting for it.  

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:15am

Dear Evan Hansen seems likely, but we'll see!

[bwayboy22]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:21am

The DEH team sees Groundhog Day as their biggest competition come Tony time. However with their abysmal marketing campaign (from what I've seen so far) it'll be interesting to see if they can find their footing.

[Lumiere2]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:24am

The rave reviews and strong reception from other artists seem helpful, and will definitely play in DEH's favour. Remember though strong ticket sales and sold out performances don't mean much to winning Tonys, just the commercial viability.

Audiences don't vote on Tony Awards. Four of the last five years the better selling musical in the spring lost Best Musical to another nominee. (Look at Kinky Boots vs. Matilda in 2013. Both great shows, but Matilda sold more and had higher prices, and Kinky Boots still won.)

CFA's sales tracking is better for the previews than DEH was, and the Schonfield is a bigger theatre than the Music Box. I'm not saying that one show is better than the other (both were fabulous), I am saying I don't think this is a sure-thing win for Dear Evan Hansen. (Also, have you seen Come From Away? It's most powerful quality is the ability to surprise audiences with low expectations.)

This could be totally dead in the water come April, but we can't say this is a lock just yet.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:31am

It's the middle of February- lots of things haven't even started previews. Dear Evan Hansen is the frontrunner now, and if I were to place a bet I'd probably say it will win, but the only other serious contender that has opened is Great Comet. 

I still feel unconvinced that Come from Away will be much of a success but again- February. 

[ethan231h]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 11:40am

Like everyone was saying, Dear Evan Hansen has that momentum now. There basically sold out already for all weekend performances through the end of summer with tickets very limited for week performances. It also has phenomenal performances, and is the talk of the town. Literally I hear so many people talking about, busses, subway, etc.

 

i expect wins from DEH for best musical, best actor, best featured actress, best score 

[haterobics]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 12:15pm

ethan231h said: "Literally I hear so many people talking about, busses, subway, etc."

You mean when they are In Transit?!

[10086sunset]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 12:17pm

Haterobics, I can't stop laughing...

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 12:37pm

At this point, I might give the (slight) edge to Dear Evan Hansen, though The Great Comet seems likely to earn more nominations. I also think the latter is the current frontrunner to win Best Direction of a Musical, Best Lighting Design of a Musical, and Best Scenic Design of a Musical.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 12:40pm

I think Great Comet will clean up in the technical design categories, but Evan Hansen will rightfully win best musical (and leading actor and book/score, FWIW). 

[froote]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:04pm

Memories of when people started predicting American in Paris would win because it was originally doing well at the box office. Wicked vs. Avenue Q as well. Commercial success really has very little to do with it. If it did, they would nominate/award celebrities much more than they do.

I do think Dear Evan Hansen will win, but not because it's a hot ticket. Or because it's the better show. It's just more appealing and accessible than Great Comet or Come From Away. Even if DEH wins musical/score/book, I could easily see Great Comet winning as many Tonys as it or maybe even more. It will sweep the technicals, and maybe pick up one of score/book/orchestrations as well as potentially featured actor for Lucas Steele.

 

 

[sondmon]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:13pm

Remember Passion won best musical and as much as I love that show I don't think it was popular.

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:15pm

I expect the two frontrunners to be Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet.

Dear Evan Hansen: Best Musical(probably), Best actor, best featured actress, best book, and best score (probably).

Great Comet: Best Musical (possible, but slightly less likely), Best featured actor (maybe), Best Set, Best Costumes, Best Lighting, best orchestrations, and best score (possible, but less likely).

I highly doubt that Come From Away, War Paint, or even Groundhog Day will provide a whole lot of competition for DEH or Comet, which both have a huge amount of buzz.

I think that Best Revival will also be a very interesting category with some competition between Hello Dolly!, Miss Saigon, and Falsettos.

[Robbie2]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:15pm

Dear Evan Hansen

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:44pm

icecreambenjamin said: "I expect the two frontrunners to be Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet.

Dear Evan Hansen: Best Musical(probably), Best actor, best featured actress, best book, and best score (probably).

Great Comet: Best Musical (possible, but slightly less likely), Best featured actor (maybe), Best Set, Best Costumes, Best Lighting, best orchestrations, and best score (possible, but less likely)."

But at this point, who do you see winning Best Direction of a Musical?

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:44pm

Dear Evan Hansen may have opened more recently, but I still think Great Comet will win the top prize.

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:49pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "But at this point, who do you see winning Best Direction of a Musical?

 

"

I forgot to write it, but Chavkin's direction of Comet is simply brilliant and so she is the clear frontrunner for best director, in my opinion.

 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 1:53pm

Mister Matt said: "Dear Evan Hansen may have opened more recently, but I still think Great Comet will win the top prize.

Nope. It will be DEH. Matt, PM me if you want to place a friendly wager.:)

 

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 2:02pm

For the people who are saying "Come From Away" wont stand a chance, have you actually seen it? If you haven't, your opinions are worthless.

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 2:05pm

South Fl Marc said: "For the people who are saying "Come From Away" wont stand a chance, have you actually seen it? If you haven't, your opinions are worthless.

 

"

I'm sorry, but I'm sure that Come From Away will be great, but Dear Evan Hansen is really shaping up to be a huge show and I don't see Come From Away being able to break through the buzz surounding DEH.