The Hollywood Reporter's Who will win and Who should win

[Bilbo3]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:33pm

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/tonys-who-should-win-who-799143

[mattporter17]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:41pm

Finally someone who thinks Fun Home is going to win! It's a lock for Book and Score but it's nice to finally see some pull in the Best Musical category.

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 07:41 PM

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:43pm

They are Hollywood based. This might serve as a clue.

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 07:43 PM

[Bilbo3]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:46pm

^ this. And they also give us the roundtable so we should be thankful. 

[Cupid Boy2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:47pm

With the exceptions of Best Lead Actor in a Musical and Best Featured Actress in a Play, I actually agree with their predictions. I just see Michael Cerveris and Annaleigh Ashford walking away with trophies. 

[followspot]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:02pm

Confused by the description of Andy Karl: "With Paris and Rotten both represented by pairs of nominees, vote-splitting among costars is likely and would help to pave the way for Outer Critics Circle winner Karl, who also has several other things going for him: he's well-known, well-liked and still Tony-less (he first hit Broadway in the 1990s)..."

1990s?  "Still" Tony-less?  I absolutely adore Andy Karl, but to be honest I never knew he existed before "The Mystery of Edwin Drood" in 2012.  Is there some decades-long history of Tony-worthy performances I'm unaware of?  (Real question, no snark.)

 

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 08:02 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:15pm

Karl has certainly been working in New York for quite a while, but I would say he didn't really break out in a meaningful way until Legally Blonde, which was his first time originating a role on Broadway.

[VotePeron]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:18pm

"Cerveris's role is not particularly demonstrative."

 

All credibility is lost.

I truly believe that any talented actor on Broadway could pull off Borles and D'arcy James's roles to an equal extent.

[followspot]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:23pm

Thanks, Kad.  I never saw "Legally Blonde."  (Which would have been 2007.)

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 08:23 PM

[mattporter17]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:26pm

I honestly don't care if SR! goes home empty handed, so that Michael Cerveris gets the award, what he does in that show is certainly demonstrative and worthy of the Tony.

[Cupid Boy2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:41pm

I completely overlooked that part about Cerveris. How anyone saw something other than the incredibly nuanced and layered character he created, I'll never understand. It's almost as bad as Elisabeth Vincentelli referring to Fun Home's score as "beige."  

[bjh2114]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:47pm

I actually thought he bordered on over acting when I saw him.  He was by far the weakest link in the cast for me.  I thought the women fared much better.

[Wilmingtom]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 9:06pm

 I think what Rooney meant by "demonstrative" is "showy," which often goes a long way in awards season.  While I wouldn't mind seeing d'Arcy James recognized for yet another terrific performance, I'm keeping my money on Cerveris for his sublimely understated, still-waters-run-deep performance. Showy is somewhat easier with the right material (you're welcome, Brad Oscar) but what Cerveris brings to Fun Home is extraordinary in its simplicity and honesty.

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 10:08pm

Yes, some weird predictions, especially about lead actor in a musical. It will definitely be either Cerveris or Fairchild.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 11:20pm

I don't know about Feinberg but Rooney is NY based.

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 11:37pm

I have to say, there are really so many deserving nominees in each category, it's really going to be a win-win either way. I'd love multiple ties, if only.

Just no sweeps. Sweeps are so boring.

 

[starcatchers]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 3:53am

"I actually thought he bordered on over acting when I saw him.  He was by far the weakest link in the cast for me.  I thought the women fared much better."

 He was, far and away, my least favorite part of that cast. I was kind of disappointed. 

[tazber]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 6:08am

I agree with almost all his picks.

I think Lucas will take Supporting Actress though.

 

I'm also not so sure Cerveris is a shoo-in.

I would love for BJD to win, but I actually think it may be Fairchild.

 

[Falling]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 6:41am

Taz-I think he's actually right about Kuhn winning and the logic is solid. Lucas could win but I think Kuhn will ultimately. 

I do think Annaleigh Ashford will win featured actress in a play, though. I also think actor in a musical is much more about Cerveris and Fairchild with James behind them. 

[tazber]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 6:57am

I would delighted if Kuhn wins, Falling!

She's my "should win" pick. I hope you're right.

But either way, it's a great line up of performances in that category.

 

 

[carolinaguy]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 8:14am

I'm surprised THR would buy into the fallacy that having a co-star nominated in your category causes "vote-splitting". What causes vote-splitting is having other nominees in the category period. They all siphon votes from one another. In the past eleven years alone, the following actors have won Tonys when they had a co-star in their category:

 

Audra McDonald

Billy Crudup

Jennifer Ehle

Norbert Leo Butz

Liev Schreiber

Adriane Lenox

Idina Menzel

Michael Cerveris

Billy Porter

Douglas Hodge

Marcia Gay Harden

Gregory Jbara

Deanna Dunagan

Jim Norton

Mark Rylance

Sophie Okonedo

Updated On: 6/3/15 at 08:14 AM

[little_sally]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 10:45am

I never understand the theory of "splitting votes" with your co-star.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 11:45am

They clearly don't understand, in their arguments, that "Fun Home" was not eligible for the precursor awards this season.

[LYLS3637]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 11:49am

Forbes seems to think that both Best Musical and Best Actor (Musical) are between AN AMERICAN IN PARIS and... SOMETHING ROTTEN (?!?!) ...With not a single mention of FUN HOME... Who did they get to write this?

Tony Predictions- Forbes

[carolinaguy]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 11:50am

I would further argue that the Tonys have no precursors at all anyway--for the reason you state, that the eligibility is often different so the nominee lists are often apples and oranges. Also, there is almost zero overlap in the voting bodies. Unlike, say, the SAG awards, where there is some real overlap in voters with the Emmys and Oscars.