"In theater, the process of it is the experience. Everyone goes through the process, and everyone has the experience together. It doesn't last - only in people's memories and in their hearts. That's the beauty and sadness of it. But that's life - beauty and the sadness. And that is why theater is life." - Sherie Rene Scott
THE NORMAN CONQUESTS, as of now, will probably win Best Revival: it's epic, it's funny, it's British. Unless it's one of those years where we're Officially Sick of the British, or Officially Proud of Our Country (see the year where Alfred Uhry's LAST NIGHT OF BALLYHOO won over David Hare's superior SKYLIGHT), in which case something else might win.
(however, I do think Matthew Warchus will win for Best Director)
Best Play, right now, is a tossup between DIVIDING THE ESTATE and REASONS TO BE PRETTY. ESTATE might win if enough voters want to reward Mr. Foote for an great career (and if enough voters want to give him, in fact, his first Best Play Tony). And it helps that the play is actually good. I think it'll be DIVIDING, as of now.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
I'm not into plays, but are you predicting that Irena won't get a nod...
"There's nothing good on. The media hates Christmas. The media loves vampires, though. Maybe they will show a Twilight Christmas." -Danmeg's 10 year old son.
IRENA'S VOW will probably be nominated: even though it got very mediocre reviews, the audience response has been pretty fantastic, and people tend to vote for what they most enjoyed.
If VOW doesn't get in (if the voters feel sort of icky for putting it in), than I think 33 VARIATIONS will take its place: THE AMERICAN PLAN will probably divide audiences too much for that slot (although a nod certainly isn't impossible).
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum