Which musical(s) do you think will be nominated for Best Musical for The Tony Awards this season?

[CoolDogeGuy]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 9:29pm

I think the Best Musical nominees for The Tony Awards will be:

Dear Evan Hansen

Anastasia

Bandstand

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

(NOTE: My thoughts on which musical(s) will be nominated for Best Musical might change.)

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 9:45pm

what about Come from Away?

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 9:45pm

what about Come from Away?

[ljay889]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 9:52pm

Great thread. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 10:00pm

As of now, Dear Evan Hansen and Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812 are both locks for nominations.

As for possibilities for the other 2-3 slots...

Anastasia
Come From Away
Groundhog Day

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 10:45pm

Y'all, this is the entire point of this thread: https://forum.broadwayworld.com/readmessage.php?thread=1093840&page=1

Specific Tony threads aren't useful until at least mid-April.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:00pm

First, there is no guarantee that there will be five nominees. I posted the actual rule about this a couple of weeks ago. In short, unless the show that is in fifth place is within three votes of the fourth place show, there will only be four in spite of there being 13 eligible shows:

I believe that Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet are locks, and from everything I've heard and read, I'm willing to bet that Come From Away will definitely be nominated. After that, it's anyone's guess out of several that could possibly contend, none of which have opened as yet.

Updated On: 1/12/17 at 11:00 PM

[broadwayboy222]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:10pm

Don't forget about Amelie as well. 

But I'd say RaisedOnMusicals has it pretty accurate at what we very well may be looking at come June. With the exceptions of maybe taking out Charlie and putting in Come From Away, or Amelie. Come From Away, Bandstand and Amelie are all wildcards right now as far as nomination chances go, just because we just don't know how well the critics will take to these shows nor do we know how successful they will be. Anastasia has not opened yet either, however it is a known property that many have wanted to see brought to the stage for some time now, so I would be shocked to see it not receive a nomination, though I firmly believe Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet are this year's frontrunners, with DEH most likely winning. 

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:22pm

We really didn't need another thread about this, but I'm thinking:

Dear Evan Hansen (Winner)

The Great Comet

Come From Away

Groundhog Day 

War Paint or Anastasia (if there are five nominations)

I really don't expect to see Amelie or A Bronx Tale (both incredibly ordinary musicals) land a nomination.  Charlie would have to have serious revisions made to land a nomination, in my opinion, and frankly, I haven't heard all that much about Bandstand and I kind of forgot that it existed.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:35pm

Considering the underwhelming response Amelie has currently been receiving in Los Angeles, the creative team would have to make some serious revisions for it to become a contender in New York.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:36pm

If you know there shouldn't be another thread for this and the correct thread is linked above, why are you replying to this thread? Let this one die.

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:37pm

I saw Amélie and enjoyed it, but don't think it'll get many, if any nominations. A nomination for Best Musical is not happening unless, like Jeffery said, it has many revisions, but even then, it's unlikely. 

[icecreambenjamin]

Posted: 1/12/17 at 11:49pm

Call_me_jorge said: "If you know there shouldn't be another thread for this and the correct thread is linked above, why are you replying to this thread? Let this one die.

 

"

Says the person who creates a new thread every two seconds.

 

[CoolDogeGuy]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 12:02am

I think Dear Evan Hansen should win too.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 12:11am

icecreambenjamin said: "Call_me_jorge said: "If you know there shouldn't be another thread for this and the correct thread is linked above, why are you replying to this thread? Let this one die.

 

"

Says the person who creates a new thread every two seconds.

 

 

"

At least those topics didn't already have a dedicated thread.

Updated On: 1/13/17 at 12:11 AM

[CoolDogeGuy]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 12:49am

IT'S SO HARD TO PREDICT WHICH MUSICALS WILL BE NOMINATED FOR BEST MUSICAL! I think all of this season's musicals are great (Some I think are greater). Last season, there were 5 musicals nominated for Best Musical (Those musicals are Hamilton, Waitress, School Of Rock, Bright Star and Shuffle Along) and we all knew Hamilton was going to win. This season, I'm not sure if there will be 5 nominees again. It would be awesome if it did happen again. But for sure, I'm placing my bet on the winner for Best Musical on Dear Evan Hansen.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 1:23am

It would help, in order to have any intellectual foundation whatsoever, if you had actually SEEN the shows you "think" will be nominated. By definition, that is obviously not possible and will not be for quite a while.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 9:56am

Though I most often agree with HogansHero as his comments are generally cogent and rational, I disagree in this case. There are ways to predict which shows will be nominated for a Tony before having seen them, all predicated on an "intellectual foundation". That's because many of the reasons used to make a prediction are objective rather than subjective. It's true with any award category. For example, I KNOW that Cynthia Errivo will be nominated, though I did not get the opportunity to see her performance.

In making this kind of a prediction, you're not necessarily stating which shows SHOULD be nominated, you're analyzing currently available information in order to predict which shows WILL be nominated. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 12:27pm

ROM, That would be true if SOMEONE had seen each of the shows being discussed, but at this point NO ONE has. It is a very crowded field, and nuance will likely dictate who gets a few more nods than the next show down the ladder. There are always highly anticipated shows that turn out to be duds. In this case they don't actually have to be duds, because only 2-3 shows from the remaining crop are going to secure nominations. I stand by my "foundation" statement.

[smidge]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 12:35pm

All of the above shows have been seen and discussed with the exception of Charlie if it's extensively redone

Updated On: 1/13/17 at 12:35 PM

[Someday]

Posted: 1/13/17 at 12:43pm

I'm curious — has anyone has seen both Dear Evan Hansen, and Come From Away (regional runs count)? And if so, which of those two properties seems more likely for award nominations and wins, to you?

Bonus points if you happen to have seen and can compare Groundhog Day in London, Great Comet in any of its runs, or any of the other top contenders.

I concede, of course, that Broadway productions can differ dramatically in quality from shows' prior productions and can either improve, or deflate when changes are made, they move to a larger house, and the idiosyncrasies of a New York City audience are added into the mix.