Will WICKED get FROZEN out.

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 12/9/16 at 8:31pm

Just wondering when frozen opens in 16 months time whether it will hit Wicked grosses?

With that you also have the double whammy of Harry Potter opening at the same time, will this also hit their grosses.

I am not suggesting by this thread that Wicked will close, any time soon. I don't think it will, they still can go down the route of stunt casting and/or moving to a smaller theatre such as the Neil Simon and they can discount on TKT's if need be so plenty of options.

i am interested if you guys think that these 2 shows will have any affect on their box office?

Updated On: 12/9/16 at 08:31 PM

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 12/9/16 at 9:02pm

I think so

[TigerBait88]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 9:03am

I think at the very least Frozen and Harry Potter will cause Wicked to finally lose its TKTS virginity if it doesn't happen sooner than that. I think that will start the clock towards Wicked closing but that clock may take 3-5 years to run out.

[Sunny11]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 9:22am

I would be more concerned with the other new shows that open at around the same time TBH . When Hamilton opened the  big insitiution shows like Wicked and Lion King wasn't really affected. It was the new shows that struggled to have their voiced heared and shrivelled up. 

And actually I think that Wicked has a slightly older demographic ( Tweens and Teens) than Frozen ( grade school and younger) will so won't be compeating against each other that much. 

Updated On: 12/10/16 at 09:22 AM

[TigerBait88]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 9:26am

Sunny11 said: "I would be more concerned with the other new shows that open at around the same time TBH . When Hamilton opened the  big insitiution shows like Wicked and Lion King wasn't really affected. It was the new shows that struggled to have their voiced heared and shrivelled up. 

And actually I think that Wicked has a slightly older demographic ( Tweens and Teens) than Frozen ( grade school and younger) will so won't be compeating against each other that much. 

 

 


"

 

THIS. This is actually the point I made to my best friend when I found out that Frozen/Harry would be opening together. It's going to be difficult to get a lot of the tourists to other shows when you will have two mega-shows in large houses stealing the thunder. I actually wouldn't be shocked if very few shows try and take these two on that season. We should appreciate a season like the current one when we get it.

[broadwayguy91]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 9:37am

[JennH]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 9:45am

TigerBait88 said: "I think at the very least Frozen and Harry Potter will cause Wicked to finally lose its TKTS virginity if it doesn't happen sooner than that. I think that will start the clock towards Wicked closing but that clock may take 3-5 years to run out.

 

"

I def agree with the TKTS virginity analogy. Will it start the clock towards closing? It's possible, but Wicked is way too...popular...for that to happen, at least anytime THAT soon. I'd give it more than 3-5 years IF the clock does start.Again, it's still its own juggernaut that people still clamor to see, and I think if it did finally hit TKTS, I think even more people will clamor to see it now that there's more options for discounted tickets other than the lottery. 

 

Like Sunny, Id be more concerned about the shows opening at the same time. HOWEVER... I think this may be the exception. Basically spring is 2018 is gonna be the big Broadway year for Potterheads and Disnerds alike, and of course I'm both and hardcore about it. While normally shows like this opening at the same time would usually affect grosses of other shows or their fellow "competitor openings", this is Harry Potter and Disney we're talking about, the two biggest fan franchises in the world. I think this is the exception and may very well boost Broadway in the biggest way since who knows when and very well put theatre back on the map like never before seen the 90's or since the Golden Age.

I know these shows might not be the first choices for bringing people back into the theater, but frankly I can think of worse shows and source material to do this with. I've heard good things about Cursed Child (regardless of its questionable plot and canon) and since it seems Disney is actually going to try make Frozen good rather than just vomiting it up on stage without any love and careful thought out into it and just cashing in on a well known property, ala Aladdin in all its cheap production value and ill scripted glory (heck the DCA one had better production values), I have confidence this will work for the better not worse. 

Speaking of Frozen...the cruise one looks eons better than DCA...just putting that out there. And if the trend of them improving on itself/themselves continues...the Broadway one should be AMAZEBALLS.

[JennH]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 9:50am

I also very much agree with toger baits last paragraph. It would be almost pointless to possibly try to open in the same season as these two, let alone at the same time. So I figure grosses for new but already open shows that already passed their Tony year and the popular long runners should be fine as long as new shows don't try to compete with these two obvious juggernauts. 

Does anyone else also get the feeling that the powers that be decided to open Cursed Child same time as Frozen on purpose?? Cause I do...

Y'all Time Square is gonna be madness that spring...

[FANtomFollies]

Posted: 12/10/16 at 11:51am

I think what will realistically happen is Wicked will no longer be at near 100% capacity, but I still see the show selling in the high 80's and 90 percentages for a LOOOOOONG time. I think some of the longer running 'tourist friendly' shows like Chicago will be in danger of closing. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Dave13]

Posted: 12/11/16 at 12:39pm

I don't think so.   Different geographic in my opinion.  I think it will slow down naturally.  Just like Book of Mormon, which is slowly dropping.