Which current shows will still be open in 5 years?

[Dave13]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 11:42am

Easy picks: Lion King, Phantom, and Wicked. Any others that are almost guaranteed? I see Phantom as the weakest of this bunch. I say easily 5 years but 10 might be pushing it.  It has its core fans and is a classic. But. You can see Phantom so many times.  

 

 

Most likely: Hamilton. I think Hamilton is most likely/questionable as I wonder if the popularity can sustain itself. The first test will be when the OBC contracts end in July.  Part of me thinks Hamilton could be a "fad", as it is new and different. I think part of the popularity is coming from people that are not typical broadway fans. Once the novelty wears off, will it sustain itself? On the other hand, because it is so different than other shows, it may continue to drive business for at least another 10 years. 

 

Book of Mormon seems to be consistent after all these years.  Personally I didn't think it would remain this successful after 5 years. As with Hamiltion, I still think the popularity is coming from not typical Broadway fans. Still think Mormons or former Mormons are still seeing this in droves and driving up the grosses.  Would love to see the statistics on this. Both of these shows has impacted Broadway in a good way.  Would love to see another musical from Stone and Parker.  

 

 

Questionable: Jersey Boys. Still doing consistent business. However, its grosses are slowly declining.  I wouldn't be surprised if this was open or closed in 5 years  

 

Beautiful. Seems to be doing well and has consistent business. I think the popularity of Carole King with the older and affluent generation may keep this show going for quite sometime. Wouldn't be surprised if the doors remain open another 10 years.  

 

Aladdin.  Appears to be doing well.  However, Disney closed the doors on Newsies while it was profitable.  They could close it before Frozen to avoid competition. So you never know. 

 

Chicago. Still open after all these years.  Same with Jersey Boys.  Consistent business but grosses are becoming weak.  

 

 

Wildcard or should I say Wildcat: Cats.  While a lot of us despise the show, it still has its fan base and name recognition.  I wouldn't bet against this show staying open for sometime.  

 

Any others or changes to my categories?  

 

[Hairspray0901]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 11:44am

Jersey boys isn't going to last much longer judging by their grosses. I don't think Chicago will either.

i think in 5 years we will still have wicked, Book of Mormon, Hamilton, beautiful and Aladdin. It is rare these days for shows to become "long running". 

[@z5]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 11:46am

I think Chicago will, it still has some frequent amazing weekly grosses, unlike jersey boys.

 

Kinda on the fence about School of Rock, Color Purple and fun home.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 11:51am

I still think we're in the final days of Jersey Boys. Then again, I've been saying that for a year now, so who really knows? I think we've got another 3-4 years of Beautiful. Aladdin all depends on what Disney's Frozen strategy is going to be, and Chicago is Chicago. It will never end (and deservedly so).

Also, I would consider Hamilton and Book of Mormon to be equally solid locks of being open in 2021 as Wicked, Lion King, and Phantom. 

@z5: I don't think any of those three shows will be open by 2021 (I predict at least one of them will shutter within the coming year, actually).

[AnnieBlack]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 12:02pm

Hamilton could put 5 years on sale next week and probably sell those out-

[theatreguy12]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 12:20pm

I can see Hamilton enduring as well.  It's still sold pretty far out, and as soon as it starts to hit that point where seats are available, they'll fill fast.  You add the repeat visits and I think it's pretty solid for some time to come.

Some of these Disney shows never cease to amaze.  I'm a Disney fan, and even worked for the company for ten years, but I still see shows like Aladdin (even though I did like it) as glorified theme park shows.  A Disneyland show with tons of money thrown at it. And as some have pointed out, The Lion King, while good, was something I remember little about outside of the opening number.

Disney has tapped into its audience though and it gives tourists with kids a place to go with the knowledge they'll be seeing a show that's safe.

[VintageSnarker]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 12:41pm

I'm curious about Hamilton, Waitress, and On Your Feet. It's difficult to predict, especially based on quality. 

[BroadwayMan5]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 12:51pm

Phantom

Wicked

Lion King

Hamilton

The Book of Mormon

Maybe or even quite likely:
Aladdin, Beautiful, Chicago

 

I don't think anything else currently running stands a chance of still being here in 5 yrs.

Updated On: 5/29/16 at 12:51 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 12:56pm

Aladdin
Beautiful
The Book of Mormon
Hamilton
The Lion King
The Phantom of the Opera
Wicked

[jomilo21]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 1:08pm

Because School of Rock was mentioned, I'm just going to throw this out there... Having seen Matilda at least once a year since it came out, I noticed that one of their biggest problems was consistently keeping a cast of killer amazing dancing 10 year olds. The dancing has gotten less and less impressive as you go... Only so many killer talented kids. I think the problem will be the same for school of Rock... Add on the fact they have to not only be amazing actors, singers and dancers but ALSO play a rock instrument at the Broadway orchestra level... Yikes. I honestly don't see them finding more than 1 replacement cast and then they'd be done as that's the whole point of the show. 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 2:22pm

With their respective theatre having renovations soon I think we can assume Something Rotten and An American in Paris won't be around for much longer. I wonder how much impact Jessie's departure will have on waitress, but I can see it becoming the new Chicago and start a series of stunt cast replacement. I doubt shuffle along will last past the end of the contracts of Audra and the other leads.

[KathyNYC2]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 2:24pm

jomilo21 said: "Having seen Matilda at least once a year since it came out, I noticed that one of their biggest problems was consistently keeping a cast of killer amazing dancing 10 year olds. The dancing has gotten less and less impressive as you go... Only so many killer talented kids. I think the problem will be the same for school of Rock... 

"

While I don't disagree that it's hard to get amazingly talented. 10 year olds, I respectfully disagree it had to do with original cast vs replacements. Having seen Matilda too many times to mention, there were some later dancers and cast members that were stronger than the original cast kids IMO. It's a matter of finding them at whatever time you are casting or recasting. I do think the show seems a bit tired lately in general but that might have been the particular performance I saw. 

Updated On: 5/29/16 at 02:24 PM

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 2:38pm

It will be interesting to see wicked and frozen compete for the same demographic.

[JennH]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 2:45pm

I dare say all the obvious ones. Although the OP's logic on Hamilton kind of makes sense. But the same was also thought about Wicked back when and here we are :) While Lin is the show's poster child, I truly don't think it quite revolves around him staying it it to remain open. Again, heavens knows I've been proven wrong, but it's not If/Then where it was created for and around Idina, who people were only coming because 'Elsadina'. If she left the show while it was still running, you can't convince me it wouldn't have closed. People love Hamilton for Lin but also it's subject matter and how it's told, and it's sheer creativity. People liked If'Then for Idina.

As for Something Rotten, I mean Frozen has already been announced to take the St. James so it's been announced privately that it will closing, just not publicly. If I recall my show biz legalities, a show can't announce the theater it will occupy until/unless the previous show announces closing at least privately. So there you. And I dare say, SR will be January 2017 victim, since I recall it being said somewhere that it would undergo renovations during it's empty days, and if the now open Disneyland production is any indicator of what they'll do on Broadway, they'll absolutely need the time to renovate. 

But I dare say everything else but the obvious 5-6 that certainly will stay around, everything else is up in the air.

[choitoy]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 2:49pm

I know there are a lot of naysayers for "Chicago", but there are certain shows nowadays that I feel have a perennial nature to them that is what people (the general population, not theatre buffs) think of when they think Broadway or expect to see on Broadway.   "Phantom" for the lush music and romance aspect.  "Wicked"/"The Lion King" (used to be "Cats" for the family aspect.  And "Chicago" for the sexy and dance aspect.   "Chicago" also has the bonus of seeming like a cheap show to run (no complicated set, no fancy costumes, just a bunch of actors and orchestra members).  And it also has numerous parts that can be fairly easily "stunt cast" (and they even haven't been doing that too recently, at least not to the Wendy Williams level).  I think that it can weather the storm of a few weeks of lower grosses just fine because of this. 

"Chicago" was one of my favorite shows in high school (I even started a fan webpage and learned html coding to do that!) when it first opened, and even though I only saw it on Broadway once (I have seen it on tour numerous times), I'm glad that it has had so much staying power, and I'll be truly sad when it closes (hopefully a long time from now) as it will truly feel like the end of an era. 

[Wick3]

Posted: 5/29/16 at 3:12pm

Hamilton definitely has staying power. With school groups wanting to see the show on Broadway, it can easily sell entire mezz to school and theater groups years after OBC leaves. 

personally I think the only big names on the show were Lin-Manuel and Jonathan Groff before 2015. Of course after the Tonys several more OBC folks will be household names. 

Book of Mormon is tricky. It's an adult show and I doubt high schools would send groups to watch it. Who knows though where we will be in 5 years.

[broadwaysfguy]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 2:24pm

hPhantom

Wicked

Lion King

The Book of Mormon

lion king

wicked

mormon

hamilton

Alladin

 

 

[Phantom4ever]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 2:29pm

It would be interesting to find a thread from years ago predicting which shows would be around in 5 years.  I bet there would be some laughable ones.  I did a search and nothing came up. 

[Dallas Theatre Fan]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 2:31pm

I think School of Rock would probably follow the same steps as Matilda and Billy Elliot, the cost of the children would be too high and would end up closing in about 3 years.

[pupscotch]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 2:34pm

Isn't Andrew Lloyd Webber the only one that can close Phantom at this point? Not sure where I heard that, though it was on this board, and it could be completely incorrec. If that's the case though, I don't see why he'd choose to close it.

I think :

Wicked

Phantom

Lion King

Chicago

Beautiful

Book of Mormon

Hamilton

Aladdin

That's it. Maybe School of Rock, but probably not.

[Jarethan]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 3:10pm

Definitely:

-- Wicked

-- The Lion King

-- Book of Mormon

-- Hamilton

 

Highly likely:

-- Phantom

 

Likely:

-- Chicago

-- Aladdin

 

I don't think anything else has a remote chance.  I suspect Beautiful will last three or four more years.  It has consistently done very well, but was never the monster hit most of the others were.  I could be wrong on this one only.

[mikem]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 3:22pm

I think the big question mark for Hamilton is how the sound of the show will be considered in 5 years.  Part of its current appeal is that the show sounds very contemporary, but that runs the risk of sounding dated a few years later.  A traditional-sounding score isn't going to be as "grabby" right away, but it won't sound dated in the future.  Also, a lot of the appeal is teen/young adult-driven, which can be a very fickle audience.  Look at how fast Glee went from being the hot thing to a ratings disaster (final episode of season 2:  11.80 million viewers; final episode of season 4:  5.92 million viewers; final episode of season 5:  1.87 million viewers).

 

That being said, Hamilton has such a high level of national consciousness that I can't see it having trouble selling tickets for another 5 years.  Whether it can go 10 years is another matter.  I have heard a lot of parallels to Rent in terms of national consciousness.  Rent also had an unknown cast that became stars because of the show, and the show did fine after the original cast left.  Rent ended up lasting for 12 years on Broadway.

Updated On: 5/30/16 at 03:22 PM

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 3:24pm

Glee's ratings went down largely because the writing became progressively worse each season. Hamilton wont have that issue.

[trpguyy]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 4:02pm

Chicago does not have a stop clause with the theater. It will never close. 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/30/16 at 4:09pm

trpguyy said: "Chicago does not have a stop clause with the theater. It will never close. 

 

"

I thought phantom was the only show to not have one.

Updated On: 5/30/16 at 04:09 PM