OSCAR PREDICTIONS -- Florida gets movies too!

Dear Reader,

Kindly join with me on this year's

journey  of Academy Award prediction.

*

*O
*S
*C
*A
*R
*2
*0
*0
*5

*

I have a couple of major but not unexpected disappointments.

King Kong deserved a Best Picture nomination and perhaps the win.

Alas, this powerful, heartbreaking and stunning epic was perhaps overlooked because it was primarily thought of as a celebration of special effects. Of course the special effects were amazing. We expected them to be. What we did not expect was a fabulous, affectionate (to the original Selznick film) screenplay, vastly superior to the original film. Then again, King Kong's "Jurassic" sequences were a tad too long and Jack Black was seriously miscast. King Kong, the 2005 film, is a masterpiece for the ages with an absolutely lovely performance by Naomi Watts. It would have been pleasing to see Ms. Watts receive award recognition for her lovely and moving performance in this film.

Sandra Bullock deserved an Oscar nomination for her work in Crash. An absolutely fabulous ensemble in an unforgettable and disturbing film. Ms. Bullock's scene of anger, confusion and outrage after having been at the receiving end of a gun, will not soon fade from the memory of any lover of great acting. She was dynamite.

I kept hoping that somehow, someway, Matthew Broderick would get a supporting actor nomination for The Producers. I loved every moment he had onscreen and for me, his performance was the ultimate delight of The Producers film.

In the categories below, I have made at least two notations each. What I predict Will Win and what I would like to have win; I will call that "Beau's Pick." I have only predicted and mused about 14 categories. In the other categories, I had either not seen all the nominees or felt ill equipped to venture a prediction.

1. Best Picture: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck.," "Munich."

I would have awarded this to King Kong, but alas, no nomination.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain

Beau's Pick: Crash

2. Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Beau's Pick: Heath Ledger

3. Actress: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon (with Felicity Huffman yapping at her heels)

Beau's Pick: Reese Witherspoon

4. Supporting Actor: George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."

Will Win: George Clooney

Beau's Pick: Matt Dillon

5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."

Will Win: Rachel Weisz

Beau's Pick: Michelle Williams

6. Director: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"; Bennett Miller, "Capote"; Paul Haggis, "Crash"; George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck."; Steven Spielberg, "Munich."

Will Win: Ang Lee

Beau's Pick: Ang Lee

7. Foreign Film: "Don't Tell," Italy; "Joyeux Noel (Merry Christmas)," France; "Paradise Now," Palestine; "Sophie Scholl — The Final Days," Germany; "Tsotsi," South Africa.

I have not seen all the nominated Foreign Films. Therefore, I will only do a win prediction for this category.

Will Win: Don't Tell from Italy

8. Adapted Screenplay: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"; Dan Futterman, "Capote"; Jeffrey Caine, "The Constant Gardener"; Josh Olson, "A History of Violence"; Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich."

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain

Beau's Pick: Brokeback Mountain

9. Original Screenplay: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"; George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Woody Allen, "Match Point"; Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale"; Stephen Gaghan, "Syriana."

Will Win: Good Night, and Good Luck

Beau's Pick: Crash

10. Animated Feature Film: "Howl's Moving Castle"; "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride"; "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit."

I have not seen all of the nominees in this category.

Will Win: Corpse Bride

11. Art Direction: "Good Night, and Good Luck.," "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," "King Kong," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "Pride & Prejudice."

Will Win: Good Night, and Good Luck

Beau's Pick: King Kong

12. Cinematography: "Batman Begins," "Brokeback Mountain," "Good Night, and Good Luck.," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "The New World."

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain

Beau's Pick: Brokeback Mountain

13. Sound Mixing: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," "King Kong," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "Walk the Line," "War of the Worlds."

Will Win: The Chronicles of Narnia

Beau's Pick: War of the Worlds

14. Sound Editing: "King Kong," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "War of the Worlds."

Will Win: War of the Worlds

Beau's Pick: King Kong