Did the 2026 Tony Nominations Help or Hurt This Season's New Shows?

Tony Nominations were announced earlier this month, providing many shows, particularly new musicals, with a shot in the arm, as many had been previously struggling. This season overall has looked much different compared to last season, fewer new musicals, and overall grosses are significantly below where they were last year. But this is the time of year where that begins to change, as audiences flock to see the best the season has to offer. 

This list uses Theoretical Average Monthly Gross as the primary metric; a figure calculated by using the average attendance, capacity and average ticket price industry-wide for the month, multiplied by the number of performances played and the size of the theater. This combined with looking at a show's total gross and gross per performance allows for analysis on a rate basis, rather than strictly a cumulative basis, normalizing weeks where there may be partial performance weeks or extra performances. 

Average ticket price since April: $123.04; Average capacity since April: 90.39% 

The Lost Boys- 12 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $6,535,798; Total Gross Since April: $5,713,147; Percent Difference: -13%; Gross Per Performance: $126,959; Overall Ranking: 23 

The Lost Boys, in conjunction with Schmigadoon, are the two most nominated shows at the Tony Awards this season with 12 apiece. The Lost Boys has had an ok start, they were running discounts during their preview period, but the Palace Theater is so big that even running below their theoretical average, they are able to gross over $1 million per week. Their figures should only increase in the coming weeks as well. 

Schmigadoon!- 12 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $5,128,994; Total Gross Since April: $3,501,261; Percent Difference: -32%; Gross Per Performance: $87,532; Overall Rank: 34 

Schmigadoon! on the other hand has some ground they need to make up, as one of the lower grossing shows recently. But recent returns have been more favorable for the new musical comedy; the trends are in the right direction. As would be expected in conjunction with this many Tony nominations. It’s always exciting to see new musical grosses trend up through the months of May and June, and Schmigadoon! is poised to be a prime positive example there. 

Ragtime- 11 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $5,642,339, Total Gross since April: $6,945,256; Percent Difference: +23%; Gross Per Performance: $144,693; Overall Rank: 10 

Ragtime became the second most Tony-nominated musical revival in history last week, second only to the 2000 production of Kiss Me, Kate. They’ve begun their campaign for Award wins in earnest, releasing a Tiny Desk concert as well as announcing a National Tour. The Broadway Journal reported they are over 50% of the way to recoupment as well, posing them as potentially the first musical revival to recoup it’s initial investment since Merrily We Roll Along.

Death of a Salesman- 9 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $7,731,859; Total Gross Since April: $7,745,285; Percent Difference 0%; Gross Per Performance: $172,117; Overall Rank: 19 

The Nathan Lane-led and Scott Rudin-produced Death of a Salemsan, in spite of being the second major revival of Death of a Salesman in the past few years, garnered a very warm welcome with the Tony Nominating Committee. The Winter Garden is a large theatre to fill, and it really says something about the production that they have managed to be as successful as they’ve been thus far, and they should only do better from here. 

Cats: The Jellicle Ball- 9 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $6,069,384; Total Gross Since April: $5,678,508; Percent Difference: -6%; Gross Per Performance: $118,302; Overall Rank: 21 

The only worry for Cats here, is most revivals have their strongest sustained grosses at the beginning of their run. These grosses are not at the heights of many of their peer revivals, especially for this early in the run, placing them in maybe a more precarious position moving forward if their grosses don't improve or at least sustain. But with 9 Tony nominations, including Best Musical Revival and Best Direction of a Musical, is certainly a good jumping off point. 

The Rocky Horror Show- 9 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $4,580,063; Total Gross Since April: $4,894,755; Percent Difference: +7%; Gross Per Performance: $111,244; Overall Rank: 15 

The Rocky Horror Show entered Tony nomination day as a relative dark horse, and has emerged as one of the strongest shows with awards committees of the spring, and as one of the highest grossings shows (on a rate basis) to ever play Studio 54. Revivals often start hot out of the gate, and it remains to be seen if they will be able to sustain their success, but this is a very strong start. 

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)- 8 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $5,594,296; Total Gross Since April: $3,248,968; Percent Difference: -42%; Gross Per Performance: $67,687; Overall Rank: 38 

Two Strangers has been sort of limping along for most of the winter and spring. Forbes estimated their operating costs to be below $500,000 per week ($62,500 per performance), and even so they had barely been eclipsing those figures. But with 8 Tony nominations under their belt, including both leading actors and Best Musical, they are poised to make strides in the positive direction. 

The Balusters- 5 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Gross: $3,289,872; Total Gross Since April: $1,627,872; Percent Difference: -51%; Gross Per Performance: $35,389; Overall Rank: 39

The Balusters is the most Tony Nominated new play this season, though this is a year where revivals were shown more love by the nominating committee compared to the last two years. They’ve had a slow start, which is not uncommon for plays in not-for-profit houses. But they are yet another show that is trending in the right direction, and should continue to improve. 

Chess- 5 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $7,532,015; Total Gross Since April: $5,554,533; Percent Difference: -26%; Gross Per Performance: $115,719; Overall Rank: #32 

Chess had maybe a disappointing day of any of the musicals, their starry trio of leads only managed one nomination for leading actor in a musical for Nicholas Christopher (the smallest name of the three), and the production failed to secure a nomination for Best Musical Revival. That leaves Chess in a tough spot, they’ve released their cast album already, and very likely their highest grossing days are behind them. Can they manage to perform at the Tony Awards, would it be worth it for them to attempt to do so? Are the relatively downballot categories they find themselves nominated in enough to push them back up? How will the show perform after Lea Michele departs in one month? All questions the production will need to find an answer for soon. 

Fallen Angels- 5 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $3,799,927; Total Gross Since April: $3,264,917; Percent Difference: -14%; Gross Per Performance: $69,466; Overall Rank: 25 

The Kelli O’Hara and Rose Byrne-led production of Fallen Angels had a good reception at the Tony Nominations, with nominations for both of their leading ladies. They also announced recently that they will be livestreaming a performance on Broadway HD. This show is outgrossing Pirates! The Penzance Musical which played in the same theatre a year ago. Whether that says more about the star power involved in this production, or audiences evolving tastes, is yet to be seen. 

Giant- 4 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $4,758,110; Total Gross Since April: $7,246,211; Percent Difference: +52%; Gross Per Performance: $168,517; Overall Rank: 4 

Giant is the second show on this list to have announced the release of a live capture, this one from the London run of the show. The Best Actor in a play race is shaping up to be John Lithgow vs Nathan Lane, as they will be the only nominees still performing in their roles at that time. But in the meantime, in and amongst a sea of star-driven plays they have stood mostly above the rest (Every Brilliant Thing notwithstanding), and Giant has been putting up some of the strongest grosses of any show this season.

Titanique- 4 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $7,040,579; Total Gross Since April: $4,416,774; Percent Difference: -37%; Gross Per Performance: $93,974; Overall Rank: 36 

Titanique’s breakeven figures according to Philip Boroff at the Broadway Journal are just shy of $1 million per week, or $125,000 per performance. That’s a gap that will need to be bridged in the next few weeks as Titanique continues on their limited run. Luckily a nomination for Best New Musical and Best Leading Actress for Marla Mindelle, should help them on that path. 

Dog Day Afternoon- 3 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $5,711,734; Total Gross Since April $6,164,733; Percent Difference: +8%; Gross Per Performance: $128,432; Overall Rank: 14 

Dog Day Afternoon started out strong, but a lukewarm response by New York’s theatre critics had already left their wheels spinning slightly. The Tony Nominating committee agreed, limiting Dog Day Afternoon’s recognition to three technical categories, with no nominations for their starry duo of Jon Bernthal and Ebon Moss-Bachrach. 

Becky Shaw- 2 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $3,036,805; Total Gross Since April: $2,441,993; Percent Difference: -20%; Gross Per Performance: $51,957; Overall Rank: 29 

Even though Becky Shaw was only nominated for two Tony Awards, being nominated for a major award like Best Revival of a Play is likely to have a positive impact. They have been slowly improving from their slow start, once again not uncommon from a not-for-profit show. 

Every Brilliant Thing- 2 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $5,167,251; Total Gross Since April: $9,829,298; Percent Difference: +90%; Gross Per Performance: $204,777; Overall Rank: 1 

Every Brilliant Thing may have only secured two Tony nominations, but they were for Best Leading Actor in a Play for Daniel Radcliffe and for Best Play Revival. Since they started performances, they have been the hottest ticket in town, and recently announced an extension with Mariska Hargitay. As Daniel Radcliffe departs their grosses will becomes ones to monitor, but given that it’s a one person play, it’s difficult to imagine that they cost very much money to operate, and they have already recouped. 

The Fear of 13- 2 Tony Nominations- Theoretical Average Monthly Gross: $5,631,663; Total Gross Since April: $4,617,480; Percent Difference: -18%; Gross Per Performance: $96,198; Overall Rank: 27 

Adrian Brody’s Broadway debut in The Fear of 13 failed to net him a nomination, the production picking up only a couple of design nominations. That puts The Fear of 13 in a challenging place, their grosses are already below the theoretical house average. It’s unlikely their situation will improve based on their reception at the Tony Awards, even were they to win both of the categories they were nominated for. 

Overall Show Ranking: 

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