I would say Anastasia is eligible considering Alan Menken won a Tony for Newsies...
Speaking of which, they may throw Bronx Tale in there simply because of Menken. Come from Away. I personally love the easy-listening music of Amelie, but I don't think it'll slip in.
I'm predicting Dave Malloy (The Great Comet), Tim Minchin (Groundhog Day), Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (Dear Evan Hansen), and Irene Sankoff and David Hein (Come from Away).
If Anastasia becomes eligible, though, I'd say it'll likely knock one of those out (probably Groundhog).
I think those are your nominees in order of likelihood. Depends on how they feel on GROUNDHOG DAY overall.
"Oh look at the time, three more intelligent plays just closed and THE ADDAMS FAMILY made another million dollars" -Jackie Hoffman, Broadway.com Audience Awards
I would like to see War Paint squeeze in over Come From Away. War Paint may be a bit forgettable to some, but many of Come From Away's lyrics are pretty weak. War Paint is, from a technical standpoint, the better score even if it isn't incredibly melodic. It is just well written. Come From Away, while fun and uplifting, has some extremely clunky lyrics.
I predict we'll see:
Dear Evan Hansen
The Great Comet
Groundhog Day
Come From Away or War Paint
The award will come down between DEH and The Great Comet. DEH has the simpler more melodic score while The Great Comet has a more mammoth score with an avant garde sound. I suspect that the popularity of DEH will grab it the award.
I think it would be a travesty for Great Comet to lose score, but I agree that DEH may very well take it. It's fitting that Pasek & Paul should win an undeserved Tony and an undeserved Oscar in the same year. Having said that, take a look at the last 3 winners: Hamilton, Fun Home, Bridges of Madison County. All 3 are fairly complex, unconventional, somewhat through-composed scores. That pattern might suggest a win for Great Comet.
I think it would be a travesty for Great Comet to lose score, but I agree that DEH may very well take it. It's fitting that Pasek & Paul should win an undeserved Tony and an undeserved Oscar in the same year.
I liked War Paint just fine, but honestly Dinosaurs might be the worst song of the season and it shouldn't be nominated on that basis alone. Come From Away isn't terribly sophisticated, but it very well for the show.
I think it's unlikely that Dear Evan Hansen loses here. If Malloy wins at all (and it would be a shame to see him go home empty-handed) it seems like Orchestrations is his best bet.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
I would love to see Great Comet take it. I agree with the recent trend in complex scores winning and I'd love to see that continue.
Personally, I find DEH's music to be terribly predictable and boring (though some songs are very catchy). I know many disagree, but I think the music and lyrics for LLL were wonderful and deserve their Oscars.
JBroadway said: "Liza's Headband said: "Someone sounds bitter and spiteful"
Guilty! "
I commend you for admitting that. Just confirms your opinion is both biased and tainted, thus lessening the validity of any future opinions made on this subject. Thanks!
Liza's Headband said: "I commend you for admitting that. Just confirms your opinion is both biased and tainted, thus lessening the validity of any future opinions made on this subject. Thanks!"
How does being bitter also make me biased? I'm bitter because I think "City of Stars" was vastly inferior to "How Far I'll Go" and because I think Dear Evan Hansen is far less deserving of the Best Score than Great Comet. I'm not saying P&P should lose the Tony BECAUSE they won the Oscar, I was just pointing that winning the Tony would make them winners of 2 major awards that I believe they don't deserve.
Kad said: "The Headband is more concerned with policing how people say things than actually having a meaningful discussion."
And also has a compulsive need to swoop in any time someone is remotely critical of Dear Evan Hansen.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
DEH has great songs but NPATGCO1812 has a such a marvelous complex score it really would be a shame for Malloy to lose but i would understand why it might happen.
"Contentment, it seems, simply happens. It appears accompanied by no bravos and no tears."
wonderfulwizard11 said: "I liked War Paint just fine, but honestly Dinosaurs might be the worst song of the season and it shouldn't be nominated on that basis alone. Come From Away isn't terribly sophisticated, but it very well for the show.
I think it's unlikely that Dear Evan Hansen loses here. If Malloy wins at all (and it would be a shame to see him go home empty-handed) it seems like Orchestrations is his best bet.
"
Yes but Pink is one of the best songs - War Paint should receive a nomination over Come From Away.
"You can't overrate Bernadette Peters. She is such a genius. There's a moment in "Too Many Mornings" and Bernadette doing 'I wore green the last time' - It's a voice that is just already given up - it is so sorrowful. Tragic. You can see from that moment the show is going to be headed into such dark territory and it hinges on this tiny throwaway moment of the voice." - Ben Brantley (2022)
"Bernadette's whole, stunning performance [as Rose in Gypsy] galvanized the actors capable of letting loose with her. Bernadette's Rose did take its rightful place, but too late, and unseen by too many who should have seen it" Arthur Laurents (2009)
"Sondheim's own favorite star performances? [Bernadette] Peters in ''Sunday in the Park,'' Lansbury in ''Sweeney Todd'' and ''obviously, Ethel was thrilling in 'Gypsy.'' Nytimes, 2000
I'm in the minority, but I thought Pink was just ok. Ebersole sells it well, but it never finds a melody and feels rambling lyrically.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
I haven't seen War Paint yet, but I really think that the score nominees will be the same as the Best Musical nominees; DEH, GC, CFA and Groundhog Day. Especially after Brantley's review, I think Groundhog Day is the most likely final slot for both.
I agree that DEH will probably win, even though GC deserves it, but Pasek and Paul are a hot commodity right now, and the committee may want to get them one step closer to their EGOTs; it only spells more visibility for the Broadway community.
I actually think GC could snap up Best Book, much like Passing Strange did a few years ago. Orchestrations is probably theirs too, as well as a few technical awards and potentially Feat. Actor for Lucas Steele. They might up having a bigger win count than DEH, which I foresee Musical, Score and Actor for.
I'm going to be very curious to see the reaction of the Fansens on here when the very well-liked Groundhog Day pulls an upset in at least one category. I'm not saying which category it's going to be in -- whether it's Best Book, Best Score, very possibly Best Actor, or EVEN, however unlikely it may seem, Best Musical. But the voters are going to award that show something, and it won't be going home empty-handed.
I think that's true of this season in general - no show will sweep, and I believe they'll want to spread the wealth around in such a bountiful year. At this point I think one scenario that has Ben Platt winning Best Actor, Groundhog Day winning Best Book, Great Comet winning Best Score, and Come From Away Best Musical... is every bit as plausible as another scenario where Dear Evan Hansen wins Best Musical, Come From Away wins Best Book, Great Comet wins Best Score (or at least Orchestrations), and Andy Karl wins Best Actor. Presumably as the nominations are announced and the voting community starts to form some kind of consensus, things will tighten up... but I really do think the fields are that wide-open, and (at this moment) the competition just that fluid, that right now anything could happen. But we'll see.
Kimbo said: "I'm going to be very curious to see the reaction of the Fansens on here when the very well-liked Groundhog Day pulls an upset in at least one category. I'm not saying which category it's going to be in -- whether it's Best Book, Best Score, very possibly Best Actor, or EVEN, however unlikely it may seem, Best Musical. But the voters are going to award that show something, and it won't be going home empty-handed."
There have been many long-running, popular, well written shows that have walked away without a single Tony. The committee isn't going to just throw an award at Groundhog Day just for the hell of it.
DEH really does not deserve this award. Waving Through a Window is the only exceptional song. Comet's music is certainly so much more varied and inventive and would be the deserving winner. Whether it will be too inaccessible for voters is anyone's guess.
Pasek and Paul are certainly talented but their work isn't of the calibre of other composers that are being far less awarded than P&P are on track to be. When I think of them potentially EGOTing (at least this early in their careers) it just seems slightly bizarre.
froote said: "DEH really does not deserve this award. Waving Through a Window is the only exceptional song. Comet's music is certainly so much more varied and inventive and would be the deserving winner. Whether it will be too inaccessible for voters is anyone's guess."