Tony Winner Predictions

[non-stop26]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 8:06pm

With the other overcrowded boards of predictions, I thought I would start fresh. Anyways, there's tons of talent this year, so it'll be hard to choose. Who/what do you think will win?

Updated On: 5/3/16 at 08:06 PM

[Hellob]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 8:16pm

Before I can decide, I need to know if nominees campaign like tv/film. Does anyone know?

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 8:21pm

Just gonna predict the big ones for musicals for now.

I think Hamilton will take best musical, book, score, director, leading actor (Leslie), featured actress and featured actor (Daveed).

Cynthia Erivo will take leading actress.

She Loves Me will take best revival.

[non-stop26]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 9:14pm

My predictions for the musicals (I don't follow plays)  

Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton
School of Rock
Shuffle Along
Waitress 


Best Revival of a Musical
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening
The Color Purple

Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton

Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress 
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster! 
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along

 

Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

Best Score
Sara Bareilles, Waitress
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Bright Star
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Andrew Lloyd Webber and Glenn Slater, School of Rock

Best Book of a Musical
Julian Fellowes, School of Rock
Steve Martin, Bright Star
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along

 

Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet!

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin and Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along
David Rockwell, She Loves Me

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening
Justin Townsend, American Psycho

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 11:48pm

Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

I don't think so.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 11:52pm

Does anyone thinks Danny Burstein could still have a chance of winning Lead Actor in a Musical? I think he could for several reasons:

1. Lin-Manuel Miranda & Leslie Odom, Jr. could split the vote, and Tony voters could end up looking elsewhere (see Robert Lindsay winning for Me & My Girl over Colm Wilkinson & Terrence Mann in Les Miserables; Norbert Leo Butz winning for Catch Me If You Can over Andrew Rannells & Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon).

2. A win for him could be the best way voters could acknowledge Fiddler on the Roof.

3. He is the one Broadway veteran of the five nominees.

4. If he wins Outer Critics Circle and/or Drama Desk, he could build some momentum.

5. He really reinvented the role of Tevye.

6. While Fiddler on the Roof did underperform in the nominations, please keep in mind that only up to 50 people determine the nominations (it was very competitive this year) and then the 800 or so voters vote on the winners.

[Mark-Alexis]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 11:56pm

Jessica Lange in LONG DAY'S JOURNEY INTO NIGHT for Best Actress in a Pley

Spread that fact.

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 5/3/16 at 11:58pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Does anyone thinks Danny Burstein could still have a chance of winning Lead Actor in a Musical? I think he could for several reasons:

1. Lin-Manuel Miranda & Leslie Odom, Jr. could split the vote, and Tony voters could end up looking elsewhere (see Robert Lindsay winning for Me & My Girl over Colm Wilkinson & Terrence Mann in Les Miserables; Norbert Leo Butz winning for Catch Me If You Can over Andrew Rannells & Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon).

2. A win for him could be the best way voters could acknowledge Fiddler on the Roof.

3. He is the one Broadway veteran of the five nominees.

4. If he wins Outer Critics Circle and/or Drama Desk, he could build some momentum.

5. He really reinvented the role of Tevye.

6. While Fiddler on the Roof did underperform in the nominations, please keep in mind that only up to 50 people determine the nominations (it was very competitive this year) and then the 800 or so voters vote on the winners."

He definitely has a chance! The only things working against your theory is that Lin will be awarded elsewhere, meaning that a lot of voters wont even think to vote for him for best actor over Leslie or Danny. Also, Hamilton getting 16 nominations (even putting Pippa in over the ultimate Tony darling Audra McDonald) has me convinced that they're going to be very generous to them. All of this talk in the last few weeks of the Tony voters 'being sick of the hype' doesn't seem to be true.

Honestly I think it will be close.

Updated On: 5/4/16 at 11:58 PM

[NJ_BroadwayGirl]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 12:20am

Hellob said: "Before I can decide, I need to know if nominees campaign like tv/film. Does anyone know?"

I don't know the campaigning is as significant as it is in Hollywood but I would say that yes, they do. Having worked in PR that involved awards, I know it's about being in the voters' sightline so this is a big part of where the PR folks earn their keep. Even though nominees are judged on their performance, it certainly doesn't hurt to have their name everywhere. Being a Tony nominee means lots of events and interviews on top of giving your best effort every night on stage. 

I think if your show has recently opened and there is a lot of buzz, it can help those actors to ride the wave. 

Updated On: 5/4/16 at 12:20 AM

[rosscoe(au)]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 12:23am

Shuffle along will win Best Musical 

[MyLife]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 11:31am

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Does anyone thinks Danny Burstein could still have a chance of winning Lead Actor in a Musical? I think he could for several reasons:

1. Lin-Manuel Miranda & Leslie Odom, Jr. could split the vote, and Tony voters could end up looking elsewhere (see Robert Lindsay winning for Me & My Girl over Colm Wilkinson & Terrence Mann in Les Miserables; Norbert Leo Butz winning for Catch Me If You Can over Andrew Rannells & Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon).

2. A win for him could be the best way voters could acknowledge Fiddler on the Roof.

3. He is the one Broadway veteran of the five nominees.

4. If he wins Outer Critics Circle and/or Drama Desk, he could build some momentum.

5. He really reinvented the role of Tevye.

6. While Fiddler on the Roof did underperform in the nominations, please keep in mind that only up to 50 people determine the nominations (it was very competitive this year) and then the 800 or so voters vote on the winners."

This has been discussed to death.

Sometimes it looks like the "split" situation can ruin the chances of two actors int eh same show (the examples you listed). Other times (Idina and Kristen in Wicked, for example) that theory does not hold true. Maybe... just maybe the voters vote for who they actually believe to give the best performance. Just because two men/women in one show are nominated in the same category doesn't mean anything. and just because Norbert beat out Andrew and Josh doesn't mean he wasn't deserving. Could Danny win? Sure. The only person we know for sure who isn't winning is Benjamin Walker.

That said, I don't personally believe Danny reinvented the role of Tevye. It seemed like the same old thing I've seen time and time again. For that reason, I don't believe he will win. I think it will (and should) go to Leslie. but if Danny does win, I won't be blaming the "split vote" theory.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 11:35am

I'm not saying Norbert wasn't deserving. I saw him in Catch Me If You Can the night before he won the Tony, and he absolutely deserved it! But still, it was an example of Tony voters spreading the wealth to other shows in a season that was dominated by an enormous juggernaut.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 11:52am

rosscoe(au) said: "Shuffle along will win Best Musical "

 

You're hilarious.

[MyLife]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 1:27pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "I'm not saying Norbert wasn't deserving. I saw him in Catch Me If You Can the night before he won the Tony, and he absolutely deserved it! But still, it was an example of Tony voters spreading the wealth to other shows in a season that was dominated by an enormous juggernaut."

Or, it was an example of the best actor actually winning the award. 

[MyLife]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 1:27pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "I'm not saying Norbert wasn't deserving. I saw him in Catch Me If You Can the night before he won the Tony, and he absolutely deserved it! But still, it was an example of Tony voters spreading the wealth to other shows in a season that was dominated by an enormous juggernaut."

Or, it was an example of the best actor actually winning the award. 

[MyLife]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 1:27pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "I'm not saying Norbert wasn't deserving. I saw him in Catch Me If You Can the night before he won the Tony, and he absolutely deserved it! But still, it was an example of Tony voters spreading the wealth to other shows in a season that was dominated by an enormous juggernaut."

Or, it was an example of the best actor actually winning the award. 

[MyLife]

Posted: 5/4/16 at 1:28pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "I'm not saying Norbert wasn't deserving. I saw him in Catch Me If You Can the night before he won the Tony, and he absolutely deserved it! But still, it was an example of Tony voters spreading the wealth to other shows in a season that was dominated by an enormous juggernaut."

Or, it was an example of the best actor actually winning the award. It just so happens that he was not in that juggernaut. "Spreading the wealth" implies it was done with purpose, which, whether you intend to or not, takes all merit away from Norbert's win. You're basically saying "He only won because Tony voters wanted to honor other shows."