I feel like a lot of these categories have a few front runners, but after those few its hard to separate the pack. Here's my analysis of the acting categories this season. This is all just my opinion so take it with a grain of salt.
Lead actress in a musical- Seemingly the most straightforward. Locks: Menzel, O'Hara, Mueller, Williams and Foster In the mix: none Dark horse: Mary Bridget Davis
Lead actor in a musical- A few at the top with a large collection of worthy nominees right behind Locks: Karl, Mays and Harris In the Mix: Norbert Leo Butz, Stephen Pasquale, Ramin Karimloo, and Bryce Pinkham Dark Horse: Will Swenson, Adam Jacobs, Zachary Levi
Featured actress in a musical-One of the hardest categories in my opinion, with a ton of 'pretty good' performances but almost no show stoppers Locks: Lena Hall, In the mix: Kate Baldwin, Lachanze, Margot Seibert, Adriane Lenox, Lisa O'Hare, Helene Yorke, Marin Mazzie, Anika Larsen, Fantasia Barrino, Cassie Levy, Nikki M. James, Linda Emond Dark Horse:Lauren Worsham, Betsy Wolfe, Courtney Reed, Ciara Renee, Samantha Hill
Featured actor in a musical- similar to lead actor, a few raves, and many solid performances Locks: Iglehart and Cordero. In the mix: Anthony Rapp, Hunter Foster,Danny Burnstein, Colin Donnell, Joshua Henry, Jonathan Freeman. Dark Horse: James Snyder, Jake Epstein, Terrence Archie.
Lead Actress in a play- Some really solid performances, but less competitive than actor in a play this year. Locks: Cherry Jones, Audra McDonald In The Mix: Rebecca Hall, Rachel Weisz, Tyne Daly, Toni Colette, Marisa Tomei, LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Estelle Parsons Dark Horse: Debra Messing, Condola Rashad,
Lead actor in a play- Possibly the hardest to predict because of the sheer number of rave performances. Locks: Bryan Cranston In the mix: Zachary Quinto, Chris O'Dowd, Ian Mckellen, Denzel Washington, Daniel Craig, Brian O'Byrne, Patrick Stewart, Mark Rylance Dark Horse: James Franco, Michael C Hall, Tracy Letts, Samuel Barnett, Roger Rees, Daniel radcliffe, Patrick Page, Stephen Spinella, Tony Shaloub
Featured actress in a play-competitive for a different reason than most others. Very few rave performances leave this category pretty open. Locks: Celia Keenan-Bolger In the mix: Anika Noni Rose, Dearbhla Molloy, Andrea Martin, Leighton Meester, Sophie Okonedo , Jane Howdyshell Dark Horse: Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, Victoria Clark, Ashley Williams
Featured actor in a play- Another very competitive category with plenty of deserving actors. Locks: Brian J. Smith In the Mix: Brandon J. Dirden, Peter Maloney, Shuler Hensley, Samuel Barnett, Jim Norton, Santino Fontana, Gabriel Ebert, Mark Rylance, Billy Crudup dark Horse: Bobby Steggert, Frederick Weller, Tom McGowan, Reed Birney, Alessandro Nivola, Michael Cumpsty.
Please let me know if you feel like anyone else should be on this list, or if I've put someone in the wrong section. Also, I would love your input on what you think should/will happen.
I would bet money on Pasquale and Karl. And Ms. Lenox better get a nod or I'll be pissed, she was amazing.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bond Davis is in, although that category is stiff.
Oh, and I still think Mazzie will be petitioned for lead, where she will be snubbed. The producers of Bullets would not want 4 of their Actresses in one category, it limits the number of nods they can get.
Kad-I've added Okonedo and Richardson Jackson to the list. Thanks for those. My reason behind having Mark Rylance so low on featured was that I think his nomination in lead might lose him featured noms. any thoughts on this? a few questions if you don't mind. Why Radcliffe and Washington over O'Dowd? Also could you explain your exclusion of the actors from Godot/NML in both categories? any reasoning behind your choices for featured actress would be welcome as well because I'm trying to reason through the options myself.
It makes sense. Washington has gotten outstanding reviews. confounding expectations that the age difference between himself and the character he played would prove a huge folly. This is the first production of Raisin In The Sun in awhile that I can recall where the actor who played Walter Lee Younger got the strongest notices in the play. Usually it's the 3 female roles that stand out more. And while the entire ensemble has gotten excellent notices, Washington seems to have been singled out the most. According to entertainment weekly, Raisin is now the biggest hit of the season, and when the President and First Lady attend your play, you know it's a a major event. Washington is a lock for the nomination, and right now I think Cranston is the only one who can beat him.
This feels almost like a redux of 2010, with Cranston as Alfred Molina in Red, and Washington as himself in Fences. That ended in a victory for Washington, over Molina who had an amazingly strong play in Red, but still lost. Cranston does not have as strong a production in All The Way, so he's even more vulnerable than Molina was.
I don't think Crudup,is a lock by any means. I actually don't think he or Shuler registered very much given how many male performances were well received this season. Rylance is the only lock in that category. And I would add Michael Cumpsty to the possible Featured List for 2 well reviewed performances this season. And I would not say that Houdyshell is a lock by any means in a category where Anika was the best reviewed woman of the season in that category so far and Celia, Sophie, Andrea, Mary Elizabeth, Mare Winningham are all competitive. Ashley Williams and Leighton Meester don't have a prayer.
And I would expect some movement between categories. I will bet Spinella will be moved to Featured. I think you have Santino and Shaloub reversed especially since Santino is the only person that plays one role. Don't be surprised if Radcliffe is Featured - that is an ensemble play. And I think there is a case for Tracy Letts to be Featured. You also omitted Michael C. Hall among many others.
As for Bullets, there aren't 4 women competing really in one category. Betsy and Karen have not been regarded as competitive. Only when a show is as celebrated as The Producers do those kinds of roles ride the wave. But here it is really a matter of Marin and Helene if they are both Featured and given how few formidable women there are in the category it is not impossible to imagine both getting nominated alongside Linda, Lena, and another woman - though both Bullets women got as many poor notices as they did good ones.
I agree that James Monroe Iglehart is a lock for Featured Actor, although he has/leads so many songs: Arabian Nights, Friend Like Me, Friend Like Me Reprise, Prince Ali, and Somebody's Got Your Back. With that many songs, he should be a Lead Actor.
I hope Jonathan Freeman gets nominated for Featured Actor, he was superb, vocally and physically. With the difficult task of being comedic and still be a menace.
Who says Betsy and Karen are not regarded as competitive? I'm sure the producers are submitting them, why wouldn't they? (Not that I think they have a chance)
I don't know how Joel Grey may have affected this, but there is no rule stating that producers have to submit performers and/or that nominators can only choose from submitted performers.
"In order to be eligible, an actor or actress must perform in the role on the production’s opening night and must perform in the minimum number of performances to which the producer of such production must invite and make tickets available to Tony voters as required by Rule 2(a)vi)."
Best Featured Actor should include Stephen Fry in Twelfth Night, Robert Petkoff in All The. Way. also Best Leading Actress: Charlotte Parry in Winslow Boy, Rebecca Hall in Machinal
Let's clear this up once and for all. There is no submission process. Every actor who performs on opening night is eligible. An actors's category eligibility is determined by his title page billing. Actors billed above the title are deemed to be in the leading categories and actors billed below the title are deemed to be featured actors. If a show wants to attempt to have an actor's eligibility moved to a category different from how they would be designated based on their billing, the producer must submit a letter to the Tony administrative committee requesting a change within 2 weeks of the show's opening night. The committee hen meets and rules in the requested changes. Similarly, the administrative committee has the rich to make any designations they feel are appropriate regardless of the billing . The administrative committee is different than the nominating committee which is bound to select its nominations based on the category designations decided by the administrative committee.
In the case if Joel Grey and Chicago, his producers requested he be considered as a featured actor despite being billed above the title BUT they sent the letter in AFTER the 2 week deadline had expired. Therefore their request was denied.
Leading Actress In A Musical Idina Menzel - If/Then Kelli O'Hara - The Bridges Of Madison County Mary Bridget Davies - A Night With Janis Joplin Michelle Williams - Cabaret Sutton Foster - Violet
Leading Actor In A Musical Andy Karl - Rocky Jefferson Mays - A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder Neil Patrick Harris - Hedwig And The Angry Inch Norbert Leo Butz - Big Fish Steven Pasquale - The Bridges Of Madison County
Featured Actress In A Musical Ciara Renee - Big Fish Helene Yorke - Bullets Over Broadway Kate Baldwin - Big Fish Linda Emond - Cabaret Margo Seibert - Rocky
Featured Actor In A Musical Danny Burstein - Cabaret Hunter Foster - The Bridges Of Madison County James M. Iglehart - Aladdin Joshua Henry - Violet Terence Archie-Rocky
Leading Actress In A Play Audra McDonald - Lady Day Cherry Jones - The Glass Menagerie Marisa Tomei - The Realistic Joneses Rachel Weisz - Betrayal Toni Collette - The Realistic Joneses
Leading Actor In A Play Bryan Cranston - All The Way Ian McKellen - Waiting For Godot Mark Rylance - Richard III Michael C. Hall - The Realistic Joneses Tracy Letts - The Realistic Joneses
Featured Actress In A Play Anika Noni Rose - A Raisin In The Sun Celia Keenan-Bolger - The Glass Menagerie Jayne Houdyshell - Romeo & Juliet Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio - The Winslow Boy Sophie Okonedo - A Raisin In The Sun
Featured Actor In A Play Billy Crudup - No Man's Land Brandon J. Dirden - All the Way Danny Burstein - The Snow Geese Mark Rylance - Twelfth Night Santino Fontana - Act One
*Michelle Williams as Sally Bowles in Cabaret *Jessie Mueller as Carole King in Beautiful *Idina Menzel as Elizabeth in If/Then *Marin Mazzie as Helen Sinclair in Bullets over Broadway *Kelli O'Hara as Francesca Johnson in The Bridges of Madison County alt-Sutton Foster
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
*Lena Hall as Yitzhak in Hedwig and the Angry Inch *Helene Yorke as Olive Neal in Bullets over Broadway *Linda Emond as Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret *Margo Seibert as Adrian Pennino in Rocky *Lisa O'Hare as Sibella Hallward in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder alt-Lachanze
Best Lead Actress in a Play
*Anne-Marie Duff as Lady MacBeth in MacBeth *Cherry Jones as Amanda Wingfield in The Glass Menagerie *Estelle Parsons as Alexandra in The Velocity of Autumn *Audra McDonald as Billie Holiday in Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill *Tyne Daly as Katharine Gerard in Mothers and Sons alt-Latanya Richardson-Jackson
Best Featured Actress in a Play
*Dearbhla Malloy as Aoife Muldoon in Outside Mullinger *Celia Keenan-Bolger as Laura Wingfield in The Glass Menagerie *Sophie Okonedo as Ruth Younger in A Raisin in the Sun *Anika Noni Rose as Beneatha Younger in A Raisin in the Sun *Mare Winningham as Rita in Casa Valentina alt-Andrea Martin
ACTOR IN A PLAY Bryan Cranston, ALL THE WAY Chris O'Dowd, OF MICE AND MEN Roger Rees, THE WINSLOW BOY Tony Shalhoub, ACT ONE Denzel Washington, A RAISIN IN THE SUN
ACTRESS IN A PLAY Toni Collette, THE REALISTIC JONESES Tyne Daly, MOTHERS AND SONS LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A RAISIN IN THE SUN Cherry Jones, THE GLASS MENAGERIE Audra McDonald, LADY DAY AT EMERSON'S BAR AND GRILL
FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY Reed Birney, CASA VALENTINA Paul Chadiha, TWELFTH NIGHT Peter Maloney, OUTSIDE MULLINGAR Mark Rylance, TWELFTH NIGHT Brian J. Smith, THE GLASS MENAGERIE
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY Sarah Greene, THE CRIPPLE OF INISHMAAN Celia Keenan-Bolger, THE GLASS MENAGERIE Dearbhla Molloy, OUTSIDE MULLINGAR Sophie Okonedo, A RAISIN IN THE SUN Mare Winningham, CASA VALENTINA
ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Neil Patrick Harris, HEDWIG AND THE ANGRY INCH Ramin Karimloo, LES MISERABLES Andy Karl, ROCKY Jefferson Mays, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER Bryce Pinkham, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER
ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Sutton Foster, VIOLET Idina Menzel, IF THEN Jessie Mueller, BEAUTIFUL Kelli O'Hara, THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY Michelle Williams, CABARET
FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Danny Burstein, CABARET Nick Cordero, BULLETS OVER BROADWAY Collin Donnell, VIOLET James Monroe Iglehart, ALADDIN Jarrod Spector, BEAUTIFUL
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Linda Emond, CABARET Anika Larsen, BEAUTIFUL Adrianne Lennox, AFTER MIDNIGHT Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway Margo Siebert, ROCKY
And sorry to thread-jack, but the others:
MUSICAL After Midnight Beautiful Bullets Over Broadway A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
PLAY Act One All The Way Casa Valentina Outside Mullingar
REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL Cabaret Hedwig and the Angry Inch Violet
REVIVAL OF A PLAY The Cripple of Inishmaan The Glass Menagerie A Raisin In The Sun Twelfth Night
DIRECTOR OF A PLAY Tim Carroll, TWELFTH NIGHT James Lapine, ACT ONE Bill Rauch, ALL THE WAY John Tiffany, THE GLASS MENAGERIE
DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL Michael Mayer, HEDWIG AND THE ANGRY INCH Alex Timbers, ROCKY Leigh Silverman, VIOLET Darko Tresjnak, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER
CHOREOGRAPHY Warren Carlyle, AFTER MIDNIGHT Casey Nicholaw, ALADDIN Josh Prince, BEAUTIFUL Susan Stromam, BULLETS OVER BROADWAY
SCORE Aladdin The Bridges of Madison County A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder If Then
BOOK Beautiful The Bridges of Madison County Bullets Over Broadway A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
ORCHESTRATIONS Beautiful The Bridges of Madison County Bullets Over Broadway A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY) Act One The Cripple of Inishmaan The Glass Menagerie Machinal
LIGHTING DESIGN (PLAY) Act One The Cripple of Inishmaan The Glass Menagerie Machinal
COSTUME DESIGN (PLAY) Act One Casa Valentina Twelfth Night The Winslow Boy
SOUND DESIGN (PLAY) All The Way The Glass Menagerie Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grille Machinal
SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL) Aladdin Bullets Over Broadway A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder Rocky
LIGHTING DESIGN (MUSICAL) Bullets Over Broadway A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder Hedwig and the Angry Inch Rocky
COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL) Aladdin Beautiful Bullets Over Broadway A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
SOUND DESIGN (MUSICAL) After Midnight A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder Hedwig and the Angry Inch Rocky