2024 Tony Awards- Page 7

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 2/13/24 at 10:25am

getatme said: ""I can't imagine a world where Jonathan Groff doesn't win this year. Brian is very good in Days of Wine and Roses, but I feel like Groff has all the momentum and his show will still be running."

I agree Groff is the frontrunner still, but there also is a ton of momentum for James who has long been thought of as one of the most overdue for a Tony actors out there. It's obviously tough to win a musical acting award when your show is already closed (would be the first time in 25 years) so I agree with the Groff predictions for that reason. But I would not at all be shocked to see this turn into a real race and see James end up taking it.

[BroadwayGirlie2]

Posted: 2/13/24 at 12:07pm

HeyMrMusic said: "According to BWW, the Tony committee met last week and deemedAppropriateas a revival. But where is the official statement about it?

https://www.broadwayworld.com/article/APPROPRIATE-is-a-Revival-Tonys-Seek-New-Spokesperson-and-Shabbat-Comes-to-Broadway-20240129"

Are we still waiting for this official statement? It seems pretty well known that Appropriate will be considered a revival, which makes it odd that they are pushing "best reviewed new play on Broadway" with the Belasco transfer announcement on their socials and new website.  

[broadwayfan_7214]

Posted: 2/29/24 at 12:44am

Broadway61004 said: "getatme said: ""I can't imagine a world where Jonathan Groff doesn't win this year. Brian is very good in Days of Wine and Roses, but I feel like Groff has all the momentum and his show will still be running."

I agree Groff is the frontrunner still, but there also is a ton of momentum for James who has long been thought of as one of the most overdue for a Tony actors out there. It's obviously tough to win a musical acting award when your show is already closed (would be the first time in 25 years) so I agree with the Groff predictions for that reason. But I would not at all be shocked to see this turn into a real race and see James end up taking it."

As much as I love Groff and James I personally think that Eddie Redmayne will win for Cabaret. He got rave reviews in london pretty much sweeping that award season. Also I think that if the Cabaret is gonna beat Merrily in anything it will be actor, because it probably wont beat them in revival or any other acting category. One last thing is that personally i believe Groff is giving the weakest performance of the core trio in Merilly, while Redmayne is the strongest in his show. This is just my opinion.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 2/29/24 at 7:17am

Just because things are lauded in the UK, doesn't mean it will be here. (I'm not saying Redmayne won't be great, I'm very much looking forward to finding out ) There are many examples of things not doing well in the US that flourish there; and shows that excell there that flop/deflate here. Same with individual kudos. 

 

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 3/2/24 at 12:47pm

I don't know how many people here are on Gold Derby, but their 2024 Tony Predictions hub just went live.

[kurtal]

Posted: 3/24/24 at 5:06pm

I was wondering why we haven't seen any eligibility rulings since way back in November, but then I looked, and last year's "Part Two" eligibility rulings didn't come until April 11.  So, I guess we're not too far away from the next batch.  It just feels late given how many shows there are in the mix this year.

[rbfost]

Posted: 3/24/24 at 9:36pm

Ahh, good looking out! That's gonna be one long meeting for them determining eligibility! That said, I'm not sure how many question marks there really are up to this point, as regards category placement.

[starlightlocamotion]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 10:23am

Current Predictions for BEST MUSICAL:

- HELLS KITCHEN

- ILLINOISE ** ( really starting to see a path for this one to take the win after such mixed responses to the rest of the group.)

- SUFFS

- THE OUTSIDERS

- WATER FOR ELEPHANTS 

My heart hurts for HERE LIES LOVE as it remains my favorite of the season. Could be surprised come nomination morning. But won't hold my breath.

Also I feel the tides have shifted in the wake of all of the other openings this season. THE NOTEBOOK is looking like it might be snubbed. It could take ELEPHANTS spot but ... I just have a feeling it doesn't make it in.

BACK TO THE FUTURE could surprise but I think it will do just fine without the nomination.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 10:45am

As of right now I think these look likeliest for Best Musical:

Suffs

Illinoise

The Outsiders

They will be joined by 2--3 of these (probably):

Hell's Kitchen

Here Lies Love

The Notebook

Water for Elephants

Lempicka

 

I really think that because there is, at least for the moment, a serious lack of consensus on the spring shows, we will get ties in voting and win up with 6 or 7 nominees in this category.

Water for Elephants has the "critics pick" citation and had a great box office uptick. So folks may want to back that crowd pleaser. But reviews were ALL OVER the place when you look beyond the times. Maybe nominator reactions are also all over the place. Hell's Kitchen is going to do major business I think, but how many jukebox shows will they really want in this category? Especially when Illinoise might be a stronger option? Here Lies Love probably took the greatest risks out of any show, and there are definitely people in the nominator group who love it, I just cant figure out if they might instead want to help shows that are still open by throwing a nomination towards them instead. The Notebook got nasty reviews, but I've experienced positive word of mouth and it makes people cry because they can relate to the story. It maybe cant win anymore after the critical thrashing, but it could still be a nominee. Lempicka could be too niche? I've only heard reactions that can be summed up as "best thing I've seen in forever" or "worst thing I've seen in forever." Usually, this means a show wouldn't make it in Best Musical, but in such a divided year, a small number of the "love it" crowd could certainly push it through. In summary: its SUPER confusing to predict and I honestly think we get more than 5 nominees.

[yyys]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 10:58am

I still don't think Illinoise will be in the best new musical category, but we can circle back later when nominations are out.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:06am

Going with these five:

- HELLS KITCHEN

- ILLINOISE ** 

- SUFFS

- THE OUTSIDERS

- WATER FOR ELEPHANTS 

 

HERE LIES LOVE should have waited to open. BACK TO THE FUTURE is the MJ of this season. Will run for several years, but may only snag one Tony Award. GATSBY is going to bomb hard.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:13am

Has there been a rules change that allows for more than 5 noms in the best procution categories?   

From Playbill:

As the Tony rules state, "Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballots shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm."

The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes automatically win spots as nominees. The only way there can be a fifth nominee is if the accounting firm finds that that the difference in votes between the fourth-highest ranked show and the fifth highest-ranked show is three votes or less. That means that, among the five Best Play nominees, there was a pretty tight horse race; and that, among the Best Musical nominees, whichever show came in fifth was a comparatively distant fifth.

 

Granted that article is ten years old, and I didn't see any other references to a change (but I am horrid at locating stuff on the interwebs - but will search again.)  I seem to remember something about what happens if there is a tie (or near tie) within noms?

 

UPDATED: after locating the Tony Awards official ruling - it seems that the only way a sixth nom could happen in any of the categories would be a tie in the fifth place nominee.  (Although the rules sounded more like in the case of a 4 going to 5 slot nomination, I can't imagine that wouldn't still be the case in a 5 to 6 member slate.) I would also imagine the odds of this happening to be slim, but not impossible.   Still, would appreciate if I've misunderstood what I read there.  (always a possibility)

Updated On: 4/4/24 at 11:13 AM

[Kad]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:23am

I can see a scenario in which Hell’s Kitchen wins Best Musical but only Best Musical: Illinoise takes choreo and a majority of voters feel that’s sufficient and are reluctant to give a dance show the big win. Score, for which HK and Illinoise are ineligible, and Book, which is HK’s weak spot and Illinoise doesn’t really have, could go to Wine & Roses, Elephants, Lempicka, Outsiders, or  Suffs (or maybe even Stereophonic, for score). The acting awards go to Merrily and/or Cabaret actors; in fact, one or both of those two revivals will take basically all the design categories plus one grabs Direction. 

Updated On: 4/4/24 at 11:23 AM

[Broadway Flash]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:36am

Back to the future

Days of wine and roses 

the great gatsby

illinoise

the outsiders

suffs

best musical- Suffs, best score- days of wine and roses, best choreo Illinoise 

Everyone who’s seen Hell’s Kitchen talks about how awful it is.

 

[Kad]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:43am

Broadway Flash said: "
Everyone who’s seen Hell’s Kitchen talks about how awful it is.

"

That is demonstrably untrue, thanks there being not one but two threads on this board of people who have seen it either at the Public or on Broadway. 

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:44am

BEST MUSICAL

Illinoise*

The Outsiders

Hell’s Kitchen

Suffs

Water for Elephants 

 

BEST PLAY

Stereophonic*

Patriots

Mother Play

Prayer for the French Republic 

Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

 

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL

Merrily We Roll Along*

Cabaret

The Who’s Tommy

 

BEST PLAY REVIVAL

Appropriate*

Enemy of the People

Purlie Victorious

 

BEST SCORE

The Outsiders

Stereophonic* (long shot for the win I know, just thought of spicing it up)

Days of Wine and Roses

Lempicka

Suffs

 

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

BRST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - Eden Espinosa, Lempicka

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY - Sarah Paulson, Appropriate 

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY - Jeremy Strong, Enemy of the People

 

I’m also wishful thinking that Illinoise would win Best Musical but because it was sooo dance heavy and the immediate transfer to Broadway might turn the voting body off like what happened to “The Sign…” last year.  But it is by far the most beautiful musical I’ve seen this year (disclosures have yet to watch Water for Elephants, Patriots and Uncle Vanya and have only seen HK, Stereo, Illinoise and Suffs off broadway)

Updated On: 4/4/24 at 11:44 AM

[Broadway Flash]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 11:58am

Everyone seems to agree Suffs, Outsiders, and Illinoise get in.   I think the rest is a toss up but I feel like people are discounting back to the future, Gatsby and wine and roses. 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:02pm

After seeing Suffs, true justice would be Taub getting a nod for Score and being snubbed for Actress.

That performance, as the kids say, is not giving.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:03pm

dramamama611 said: "Has there been a rules change that allows for more than 5 noms in the best procution categories?

From Playbill:

As the Tony rules state, "Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballots shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm."

The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes automatically win spots as nominees. The only way there can be a fifth nominee is if the accounting firm finds that that the difference in votes between the fourth-highest ranked show and the fifth highest-ranked show is three votes or less. That means that, among the five Best Play nominees, there was a pretty tight horse race; and that, among the Best Musical nominees, whichever show came in fifth was a comparatively distant fifth.



Granted that article is ten years old, and I didn't see any other references to a change (but I am horrid at locating stuff on the interwebs - but will search again.) I seem to remember something about what happens if there is a tie (or near tie) within noms?



UPDATED: after locating the Tony Awards official ruling - it seems that the only way a sixth nom could happen in any of the categories would be a tie in the fifth place nominee. (Although the rules sounded more like in the case of a 4 going to 5 slot nomination, I can't imagine that wouldn't still be the case in a 5 to 6 member slate.) I would also imagine the odds of this happening to be slim, but not impossible. Still, would appreciate if I've misunderstood what I read there. (always a possibility)"

The odds of a tie are actually quite high, which is why we have seen expanded categories for the last 3 years. Its because of 2 reasons. First, the nominators are a very small pool of people, thus increasing the chances. Second, per the rules it doesnt have to be an exact tie. I forget the percentage stated in the rules, but it works out to a tie within 2 or 3 votes. So chances go WAY up in terms of getting 6 or 7 nomination slots.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:13pm

I'm in agreement with those who think the five will be:

Hell's Kitchen

Illinoise 

The Outsiders

Suffs

Water For Elephants

I think Here Lies Love or Days of Wine and Roses may have had a chance if they were still open. The Notebook could snag a slot but seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Back to the Future seems unlikely but I wouldn't totally rule it out if Hell's Kitchen bombs with reviews. I don't think there's any chance for Lempicka, Gatsby, Heart of Rock n Roll or the other closed shows.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:17pm

MayAudraBlessYou - thank you for that insight, appreciated.

 

I don't see a scenario that DOWAR doesn't get nominated.  Win?  No.  Nominated? Without a doubt.  (in my mind)

Updated On: 4/4/24 at 12:17 PM

[Sauja]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:18pm

I LOVED Brian D'Arcy James in Days of Wine and Roses, but I think he's out of the running for the win as the show was polarizing and will have been closed over a month before final voting. To me, Best Actor in a Musical is a horse race between Eddie Redmayne who cleaned up in the UK for Cabaret and Jonathan Groff, a beloved theater performer who has never won. I think that a small handful of factors (import production vs. homegrown; already has a Tony vs. doesn't yet) could tilt this Groff's way. Strong as many other performances are, I don't know that any will approach the heat of the two folks I believe are the frontrunners. Time will tell!

[Broadway Flash]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:28pm

Well, sorry to break it to you but Merrily came from London as well dear…

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:40pm

I think the overwhelming majority of the musical awards this season will go to either Cabaret or Merrily. The only one I could maybe see falling to a new musical would be Lead Actress. But I see Lead Actor, Featured Actor, Featured Actress, Direction, Scenic Design, Lighting Design, Sound Design, Choreography, and Orchestrations all going to either Cabaret or Merrily.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:44pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "As of right now I think these look likeliest for Best Musical:

Suffs

Illinoise

The Outsiders

They will be joined by 2--3 of these (probably):

Hell's Kitchen

Here Lies Love

The Notebook

Water for Elephants

Lempicka"

I think you're spot on with both your predictions and the analysis. I do think Wine and Roses could be up there for a nom too. I'm so curious how Here Lies Love does. It's still my favorite musical of the season, but IDK how the nominators received it. I think it has to get noms for direction, sets, lighting, and sound. I also have Conrad Ricamora getting a nomination in my predictions right now. But, I really don't know what to think in it's chances for Musical or Score.