Bradley Cooper... an Oscar and a Tony?- Page 2

[east side story]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 12:56pm

If American Sniper wins an Oscar, it will be for editing, or one of the two sound categories it is nominated for. Cooper will watch Keaton win.

[J_Jammer]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 1:59pm

He's winning the Oscar.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 2:04pm

I'd be shocked if he won either. No one even thought he'd get nominated for American Sniper, and while his work in Elephant Man has been well received, the show will have been closed for several months by June. At this point, I'd expect Alex Sharp to win, but with Bill Nighy, Larry David, and Steven Boyer still waiting to open their respective plays, that's not even close to a sure thing.

[Bucky Builder]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 2:06pm

"I don't think the idea of American Sniper being an upset victor for Best Picture is completely out of the question"

It is. Not trying to sound rude but American Sniper has pretty much no shot at winning Best Picture. In fact, It's probably safe to say they would give it to any of the other 7 before they give it to American Sniper. It's nomination was it's prize.

A good indicator to see what film will win Best Picture is to look at if the Director got nominated. Not always the case but it's a good fortune teller.

[J_Jammer]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 4:28pm

Yes it does.

People like to think that it matters who wins what prior and they prounounce they know every single year. And then when it doesn't happen as their weak predictions indicated (by other award show winners), they say it's a fluke.

Consider this year to be a fluke.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 4:34pm

"But I would also agree that Michael Keaton is essentially a lock at this point."

What about Eddie Redmayne?

[decast]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 4:49pm

It's pretty much a straight fight between Keaton and Redmayne now. They both won Globes, Keaton won 3 Critics Choice Awards last night, and the more minor awards have been split between them. Keaton will probably win at SAG and Redmayne Bafta, so I think it could be either on Oscar night, but I think Keaton has the whole 'overdue' thing working for him. I can't see Cooper causing an upset, he's not SAG or Bafta nominated and he's not been able to campaign this season. He is one of only a handful of actors to be nominated three times in a row though, so I suspect he'll have to be content with being in that company. I don't see a Tony being out of his reach though.

The Producers Guild awards is usually the best indicator of what will win Best Picture, they've been in tune with Academy voters, I think it's the last 7 years, probably because there's an overlap in voters.

[n2nbaby]

Posted: 1/16/15 at 10:19pm

American Sniper being nominated for editing shows how strong it actually is in the race, IMO. Very rarely does a movie win editing and not win Best Picture.

As for the "and you call yourself a movie fan comment?" I predicting American Sniper to be nominated for Picture and I predicted Cooper to get into Actor. Just saying. Back in 2001 (?) nobody predicted Adrian Brody to win for The Pianist.

Will Boyhood probably win? More than likely. Will Keaton win? More than likely. It just wouldn't SURPRISE me if either Cooper or the film pulled an upset.

[JayG 2]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 9:34am

In your dreams. Not a chance for either award.

[J_Jammer]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 11:30am

Dreams come true.

[east side story]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 11:34am

The days of a true surprise Oscar win in any acting category are probably long gone. Ten years ago or so, there were not nearly as many televised precursor awards. But now, they are everywhere. The Golden Globes used to award pretty much whomever they felt like seeing on stage. Now they, along with every other award show, want to their winners to be those who are most likely to go all the way on Oscar night. Once someone picks up serious momentum, such as any frontrunner in any of the four acting categories this year, it's a usually a sure thing. And that is why Bradley Cooper is not winning. Yes, his film was released in the last leg of the race. But it's not enough to take down Michael Keaton.

[Bucky Builder]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 11:59am

"Dream come true"

Sorry, Into the woods will not be winning Best Picture and be hailed as the best film of all time. And No, Chris Pine will not date you.

[BrerBear]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 12:54pm

He will win neither. Do people here even follow the awards? Sheesh.

Anyways, here are the Vegas odds for American Sniper. Easily last place odds for both picture and actor.

Best Picture
“Boyhood,” 2 to 5
“The Imitation Game,” 7 to 1
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” 9 to 1
“Birdman,” 18 to 1
“Selma,” 20 to 1
“The Theory of Everything,” 30 to 1
“Whiplash,” 60 to 1
“American Sniper,” 75 to 1

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, “Birdman,” 5 to 6
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything,” 11 to 10
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game,” 20 to 1
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher,” 30 to 1
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper,” 75 to 1

[J_Jammer]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 4:10pm

"Sorry, Into the woods will not be winning Best Picture and be hailed as the best film of all time. And No, Chris Pine will not date you."

No, you're not smart.

Yes, you are stupid.

And mainly cause you left out the 's.'
Updated On: 1/17/15 at 04:10 PM

[J_Jammer]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 4:12pm

And how often are the "Vegas Odds" right?

Did they pick right last year?

[carlodowd]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 4:20pm

No way will we win in either. Alex Sharp is defiantly the front runner for the Tony (bit early to really know fully, but thats my opinion and many others on this board) and the Oscar is between Keaton and Redmayne no question. Cooper won't be winning either

[Copperfield2]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 5:09pm

Cooper will not win an Oscar or a Tony. It was an honor for him to be nominated for an Oscar. American Sniper has no chance of winning the Oscar for best movie, either. It may win an editing or sound award and that's it.

[Bucky Builder]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 5:15pm

Exactly. The nomination was his prize.

[Susanswerphone]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 7:55pm

Just saw American Sniper today. As much as I love Bradley Cooper, there is absolutely no way he's winning an Oscar for this performance. It's not even worthy of the nomination IMO. There were other performances this year that were far more deserving of a nod. Bill Murray in St. Vincent and Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood come to mind right away. I won't be surprised to see this movie get snubbed altogether come statue night. The message is a bit heavy-handed and I can't see Academy voters putting politics aside, even for a Sound Editing statue.

[Fantod]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 8:11pm

I think the Academy could surprise us. It's happened before where an actor who was almost universally considered the best actor of the year lost to someone who had a role much more Academy-freindly, like Sean Penn in Milk (over Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler), or Sandra Bullock in the Blind Side (over Gabourey Sidibe in Precious)

[Bucky Builder]

Posted: 1/17/15 at 8:15pm

Sean Penn was a frontrunner to win the award. Cooper is just lucky to have gotten nominated. Yes there is always a chance that the academy could surprise in any category, but that wont happen this year for the actor or picture race. Cooper has basically no shot at a win.

[decast]

Posted: 1/18/15 at 8:19am

Personally I think his spot should have gone to David Oyelowo, Jake Gyllenhaal or Ralph Fiennes. All of which are much more deserving. He's really just lucky to be there this year.

[mikem]

Posted: 1/18/15 at 2:23pm

American Sniper massively overperformed in its wide opening weekend. It's estimated to bring in over $109 million by the end of the day on Monday, making it the biggest 4-day opening weekend in history for an R-rated film. (The previous record-holder was The Hangover 2, starring you-know-who.) The film also has a rare A+ Cinemascore (meaning that those who are seeing it LOVE it), and will have grossed about 4 times as much as presumed frontrunner Boyhood, and almost twice as much as any of the other nominees for Best Picture.

There is an interesting article by Sasha Stone at awardsdaily.com, one of the leading awards sites, about what this all means in terms of the Oscars. She says that, although it is still an upward climb, American Sniper is speaking to the public in a way that none of the other nominees have. We'll see whether that affects how people vote. If American Sniper falls off quickly, one big weekend won't have any impact. But if it starts to become a box office phenomenon, right in the middle of Oscar voting season, it might play a role.

And Bradley Cooper's stock in Hollywood just went up enormously. Good for him.

Updated On: 1/18/15 at 02:23 PM

[cknick]

Posted: 1/18/15 at 3:13pm

I don't think it's surprising that a film like "American Sniper" is speaking to the public the way it is. A war, plus a veteran, plus America....easy to win an audience with that combination. An actor of lesser talent could've played it and people would still give it raves.

I think Cooper deserves the acting nomination, but I too am baffled by the best picture nom. Don't think either will win, but anything is possible, I guess!

[JP2]

Posted: 1/18/15 at 3:18pm

"And Bradley Cooper's stock in Hollywood just went up enormously. Good for him."

The only thing Hollywood will take from American Sniper's opening weekend is to make more right-wing propaganda films.

Updated On: 1/18/15 at 03:18 PM