Most people are predicting it being a horse race between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, but it could still be possible for Cooper to pull an upset...
I'm sure with the rave reviews he got in The Elephant Man, I think a Tony Nomination will likely happen.
@gfaustwa - What made you think he was a frontrunner? He hasn't won any precursors (Golden Globe, NBR, individual critics' awards) and wasn't even nominated for the SAG Award, which is typically the most telling of who will win the Oscar. I'm pretty shocked he even managed a nomination.
What a snoozefest of a movie-an Oscar for all that macho swearing ? Sienna needed to try out a few Cabaret tunes during the dull bits-Oh-that was the whole movie. Why was Mandy Patinkin in it so much? Enjoy watching paint dry ?-watch Canopy.
As someone who is a hardcore movie buff and follows this stuff, I was predicting Cooper to get in and I wouldn't be surprised with an upset. They obviously loved the movie (though it missing Best Director is a bit worrisome, but remember, Argo won without being nominated for Best Director. Anything can happen) and with the huge amount of money it's making in platform release and it is going to be a MONSTER starting today... Don't count it out. I wouldn't be shocked with a Cooper win or an American Sniper Best Picture upset.
Boyhood and Birdman are waaaaay ahead of American Sniper in terms of Best Picture. Argo won Best Pic without Best Director, but Affleck won the DGA and it was a surprise when he wasn't nominated for director at the Oscars. I fully expect Linklater to take the DGA and the Oscar, with Boyhood taking Picture.
As for Actor. It's Keaton. Then Redmayne, then Cumberbatch, then probably Carrell, and then Cooper.
Although I don't think Cooper is going to win Best Actor, I don't think the idea of American Sniper being an upset victor for Best Picture is completely out of the question. American Sniper missed most of the precursors largely because it opened so late and it probably didn't get seen enough. Similar to Million Dollar Baby, which did not win the Golden Globe, SAG ensemble, or Critics Choice, and wasn't even nominated for the BAFTA. And American Sniper is opening wide this weekend and if it's a huge box office success, that might have some impact (which shouldn't but it does).
I still think Boyhood is going to win, but for American Sniper to win is within the realm of possibility. I don't think any of the other nominees have a chance.
But I would also agree that Michael Keaton is essentially a lock at this point. (As are JK Simmons and Patricia Arquette, unless any of the 3 of them lose the SAG. But they won't.)
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