What is the next long running show to close?

[brdwybound04]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 2:43am

Just wondering what/when you guys predict will close next that is long-running (meaning over 1000+ performances)?

I'm thinking that Avenue Q, Chicago, Spamalot, and possibly Hairspray are in long-term danger, meaning by the end of 2009, they will likely be gone...

I also can say with confidence that Mamma Mia!, Lion King, Jersey Boys, Wicked, Mary Poppins, and Phantom appear to be in no imminent danger anytime in the forseeable future...

[LimelightMike]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 2:50am

I really, really, REALLY don't like this negative energy bestowed upon these boards - Having said that, I can't see CHICAGO closing by the end of '09. That's just silly to assume such a thing. It's doing great business, and it's a wonderful piece - scaled-down or not.

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 7:44am

I think Avenue Q id in the most danger, and Chicago follows right behind. I think Hairspray has a few more years but i not going to go over 10 years.

[SirNotAppearing]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 8:26am

Avenue Q is in a lot of trouble.
I think Phantom might not have much time left in it.
Hairspray will run longer than you all think it will.
Chicago is faltering and may be gone by the end of 2009 if they don't get a major star in there.

[BrodyFosse123]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 11:20am

I think Phantom might not have much time left in it.

Yeah, I guess the reality that it still does about 90% weekly validates this.

Oy!

[philly03]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 12:53pm

"I think Phantom might not have much time left in it."

Sure, it has only sold above 90% for the past 15 weeks since Spring Break, so it'll definately close. Oh and it only had standing room twice this year already so it must. It only has sold more tickets than In the Heights, this year's Best Musical, which hasn't sold out an entire week yet at all, and only been in the 90%s 3 times!

Phantom's going to be around for a while. While it may not be a "BWW" favourite, it certainly is a fan/tourist favourite, as is for the most part Chicago -- probably because of the movies! It'd be interesting to see if Phantom starts "stunt" casting in some way, considering that Anne Hathaway was a possible choice for the movie, and of course Emmy Rossum. That would just throw all the BWW haters of Phantom through a loop!

[TonyVincent]

Posted: 6/27/08 at 12:56pm

Spamalot seems to be struggling a bit without stunt casting.

That or Avenue Q. They're the kind of shows that the tourists who want to see it have seen it already, not like Phantom, Mamma Mia!, etc., which have universal tourist appeal.

[theatre2]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:55am

tpoto need to colesd soon because i tink it is time for it to go.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 7:52am

In all honesty, Hairspray, Avenue Q, Chicago, or maybe even Spring Awakening. All of them have been on the border line.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 8:17am

I say AVENUE Q...or SPAMALOT.

[shiz_student94]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 9:10am

I don't pay attention to weekly numbers and attendence and such, but Spamalot has been doing a lot of 'stunt' casting recently, and I wouldn't be totally surprised if it didn't last to 2009. As soon as Clay left they brought in Stephen & Drew...just a top of the head assumption it's not at it's best.

[musicalmaster703]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 9:15am

AVENUE Q based on Grosses of the past few weeks.

[winston89]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 9:31am

I know someone said that they hate the negative aspect of talking about what shows are going to close next. I can understand that. But, what's the alternative? Pretending that the theatre isn't a business but rather a popularity contest? We all here know that theatre is a business and that means shows closing because they aren't making money. Because that is a truth of the matter there is no use getting upset when someone decideds to make a thread talking about a show closing or to ask what show is going to close next. And, before anyone jumps down my throat about how I am saying this because I love to see a show do bad business and to se it close. I don't. I am just a realist who realizes that this is part of the business of Broadway.

That being said, I don't think Avenue Q has much life left in it. Whereas Phantom has LOADS of time left in it. I doubt that they are going to have to resort to stunt casting in any manor. I know the original production of Les Miserables did some stunt casting to stay open but that doesn't seem like something Phantom would do or would need to do. As for Anne Hathaway being in the show as philly03 suggested. She was chosen as a movie star with an operatic voice to do the move version of the show. Makes sense that a movie star would do a movie. I don't think Phantom is ever going to have to resort to stunt casting. Because by the time it gets that bad for the show they could still close having been the longest running show on Broadway and making it hard for any other musical to beat them in that record.

[zooxanthellae]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 10:37am

I agree I don't see Phantom Closing anytime soon. I think Chicago as at the least a year or so left in it.

I think Avenue Q and Hairspray are in the most immediate danger. Yes Hairspray is doing fairly well, but there have been some pretty low lows.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 11:42am

Avenue Q is my guess to be gone by the end of the year.

Phantom has YEARS left, and isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It'll certainly be around for its 25th anniversary, and possibly even its 30th.

Chicago has a year or two left, as does Hairspray.

Spring Awakening's grosses have dipped, but I don't believe they've had a week where they've lost money. Their nut is very low. It's not going anywhere just yet.
Updated On: 6/28/08 at 11:42 AM

[philly03]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 1:53pm

"As for Anne Hathaway being in the show as philly03 suggested. She was chosen as a movie star with an operatic voice to do the move version of the show. Makes sense that a movie star would do a movie."

Anne Hathaway was choosen for the role of Laura Fairlie in Andrew Lloyd Webber's "THE WOMAN IN WHITE", after she declined the movie. She then declined the stage role, which prompted Lloyd Webber to have to find 2 American "unknowns" (in Jill Paice & Angela Christian) if he wanted to transfer the production in a Phantom-like manner. Hathaway declined the role to be in "Princess Diaries 2" if I'm not mistaken. She can be heard on the demos of WiW as Laura as well.

[esparza 333]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:02pm

I think avenue q is not going to make it to next year.

[fanpires]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 3:57pm

I think it's time for Spamalot to close. All the stunt casting isn't helping it any.

[oohshizz146]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 4:40pm

I have to disagree, I think Hairspray will be around for a long time.

[groovy-hoover]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 7:06pm

I do kind of wish Phantom would close. Tired, much?

Also, in response to some stuff about Anne Hathaway... I read that she accepted Phantom but then had to pull out at the last minute because she was contractually obliged to do the Princess Diaries sequel, which she reportedly hated doing.

[LePetiteFromage]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 7:09pm

Updated On: 5/3/09 at 07:09 PM

[SpellingBeeFan4Ever]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 7:29pm

Avenue Q will be trying stunt casting soon. It'll be Chris Rock as Gary Coleman. " Why can't a black man play Princeton?" That'll be his adlib.

[Greekmusicalfan]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 9:27pm

PHANTOM doesn't need stunt casting, no one who goes cares who's on it, they are going for THE SHOW ! I am positive now, it's gonna play FOR EVER !
I adore AVENUE Q, but I am worried.
And I am honestly asking, when is something called a Long Running Show ? Because, I have to say, that I wouldn't think of SPRING AWAKENING or SPAMALOT, if I heard the term, but I saw them mentioned !
Updated On: 6/28/08 at 09:27 PM

[fanpires]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 9:31pm

When I saw Phantom, I was bored to tears. It's time for it to close, too.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 9:35pm

I love all these people who want Phantom to close because they didn't like it. Im sure you'd feel differently if you had invested in the show and were receiving a huge check every month.