"SWEENEY TODD the Best Pic of 2007"

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 12:40am

Officially sayeth Tom O'Neill, who had previously praised the 17 minutes shown at Lincoln Center. But will the Oscars actually award the film with a Best Picture win? Embargo on reviews, but his thoughts are here.

http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_goldderby/2007/11/finally-we-have.html

Some other early Oscar pundits like Kris Tapley aren't feeling the Oscar potential.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:07am

O'Neill has a bias to musicals and therefore can't be taken as seriously as we hope his prediction is.

I love how he has built buzz for musicals, but seriously...way too early to predict it as the best pic!

[amoni]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:16am

Well, after nominations for "Pirates" and "Finding Neverland", don't be suprised if it's Depp's year.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:34am

Well I don't think its too start making predictions, that is if you've seen all the eligable films. Tonight's showing of SWEENEY marked it the last major film of 2007 to screen for critics. People like O'Neill have now most likely seen whatever film ends up winning next year.

But yes, O'Neill not only loves musicals, he is terrible at predicting Oscars (Tapley on the other hand is great at it).

So his article doesn't carry much merit on those terms, but its nice to see that, as a fan of the stage musical, he was so very pleased with the film.

The real deciding factor for SWEENEY as any type of award contender is box office. If it tanks forget it. If it gets even sold reviews but a 100 millions dollar box office - if it becomes an "event" or a pop culture lexicon like SILENCE OF THE LAMBS did the year it came out - it could be a contender, at the very least for Depp, who is hugely resepcted and has made a lot of money for a lot of people and is going to win an Oscar eventually for that reason alone.

Whats most exciting of all is that both SWEENEY and ENCHANTED have the potential to meet HAIRSPRAY's 100 million dollar + gross. 3 blockbuster movie musicals would bode very well for the continued development and resurgence of the genre.
Updated On: 11/30/07 at 01:34 AM

[Phyllis Rogers Stone]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:41am

Hopefully they'll just shut up about it (to the extent that they can) and just let the movie speak for itself. I really think all that insane early buzz for months and months about Dreamgirls was just too much and that's what ultimately sunk it. Seriously, I can't be the only one who was finally just like, "Shut the F*CK up, Dreamgirls," can I?
Updated On: 11/30/07 at 01:41 AM

[broadwayman17]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:45am

Johnny Depp has two things working for him. One is that he is one of those actors the academy will honor at some point. The other is that after hearing some of the songs on the website, I think his singing will definitly ensure a nomination. But then again he could be up against people like Tom Hanks or Daniel Day Lewis, who have gotten a lot of buzz.

[B3TA07]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:47am

^ You definitely weren't.

Out of curiosity, what other films do y'all think are good shots for Best Picture? Don't say "Across the Universe"...I cringe at the thought.

[Phyllis Rogers Stone]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:48am

It's never been my favorite musical, but I always thought the casting was inspired and the one clip I watched of A Little Priest confirmed that this might be a case where I like the movie version a heck of a lot more than I do the stage version.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:51am

Well I think that's partly true Phyllis; what partly killed DREAMGIRLS in terms of the Oscars were the tepid reviews, which perhaps would have been slightly better had the film not been so hyped.

I actually think the box office and reviews on their own were probably good enough for a nomination, but the movie just didn't develop a passionate enough following to rank in the top five Best Picture nominees.

SWEENEY has yet to have any type of Oscar consideration ad. The studio seems to be letting the press do all the buzz as of now. That in itself is a smart move. Then if the movie doesnt get Oscar-reviews, they can simply say "that was never the goal." If it does - great. Let the fan boys rally a win for Depp.

[tazber]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:52am

B3:

I think these have a good shot:
Atonement
There Will be Blood
No Country For Old Men
Juno
The Kite Runner

Into The Wild just scored a bunch of Gotham Award noms.

And then are the pics that got buzz in the spring/summer/early fall like
Michael Clayton
Zodiac

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:56am

I dont have much hope for ZODIAC. That seems ages ago and it never really had a passionate following. A lot of people think THERE WILL BE BLOOD is too intense for a Best Picture nom. Same thing of course is being said about SWEENEY. Too gory.

[B3TA07]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:01am

I loved Zodiac a LOT, but don't see it getting much.

[tazber]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:05am

They're releasing a new dvd version of Zodiac in January to raise awareness, but I agree that it's probably too little too late.

I'm surprised that all the Iraq war flicks bombed so badly. I thought at least one of them would rise above.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:06am

Nobody wants to sit through a movie about Iraq right now.

[B3TA07]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:08am

I'd rather see the George Lucas-directed "Miss Saigon" starring the girl who played Cho Chang as Kim.

[tazber]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:10am

Now that would be a shoe-in for best picture

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:10am

You laugh but 10 bucks says MISS SAIGON is made into a movie in the next five years.

[tazber]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:12am

you think?
Well, if Sunset is a hit I suppose all those 80s sung throughs would become hot properties.

[B3TA07]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 2:13am

I actually think it would work brilliantly. Hopefully they'd tweak a few lyrics, such as that one stanza where Chris changes from past tense to present in order to rhyme. I actually figure out ways to fix the bad lyrics in that show in my spare time. Don't judge...

[HughE2030]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 11:30am

Do you think Patti Lupone will go to the premiere on Monday? I imagine Michael Cerveris will attend, Johnny Depp praised his performance.

[lotiloti]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 11:56am

'Sweeney' is a dead cert for a Best Pic nomination. Having watched it four times now. I really think it has a great chance. For me, 'Atonement' & 'Into the Wild' will be be it's main rivals.

[folkyboy]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 12:57pm

i've heard SH*Tty things about "Into The Wild". i loved the book so much i don't know if i could picture it on film.

[Phyllis Rogers Stone]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:04pm

I actually figure out ways to fix the bad lyrics in that show in my spare time.

I do that with ReNt all the time.

And I agree that it was more than just the overhype, MB. Dreamgirls - as I think I said on another thread - was a good movie that wanted desperately to be a great movie and I think it started to believe its own hype. Ultimately, it just wasn't worth the fuss.
Updated On: 11/30/07 at 01:04 PM

[best12bars]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 1:27pm

This from Newsweek posted last night:

"Helena Bonham Carter is a knockout. She's shares the screen time with Depp, and she has rightfully been placed in the lead actress category. (Thanks to Sasha Stone for the tip.) She should be nominated."

Guess that answers that they're pushing her for leading actress, not supporting.
Link

[phantom8019]

Posted: 11/30/07 at 6:13pm

Let's just not get our hopes up too high with the box office, and let's not make unrealistic predictions, so that no one here can call it a flop when it doesn't meet our expectations.

There are 3 important things to consider:

1) It is unlikely this movie will appeal to anyone who hates musicals, no matter how much gore it has. People who hate musicals hate musicals. That's all there is to it. Blood will not change their minds... they can get blood in many other R-rated movies, without the music.

2) In general, it is very hard for an R-rated movie to break $100 million. Of the 23 movies to break $100 million so far in 2007, only 4 were R-rated.

3) Luckily, Sweeney Todd cost significantly less to make than both Dreamgirls and Hairspray... I think the budget was $50 million, which is at least $20-$25 million less than those two.
So, if the movie doesn't break $100 million but lands in the $70s or $80s, which I think likely, I don't think it should be seen as disappointing, considering it is an R-rated musical (and both of those things are often regarded as box-office poison).



Updated On: 11/30/07 at 06:13 PM