Tony Prediction Thread- Page 2

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 12:47am

Here's Variety's Tony Award predictions

https://variety.com/2021/legit/awards/tony-predictions-2021-moulin-rouge-slave-play-1235073568/

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 1:08am

Sound Inside and Slave Play were my favorite plays of the season. I would love for either to win. Most are predicting Slave Play to win but I wonder if Jeremy O. Harris’ enfant terrible persona will hurt his chances.

The only awards I’m attached to certain people winning are Mary Louise Parker and Danny Burstein.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 2:56am

My predictions, though at this point they're changing by the hour.  I didn't get a chance to see Tina or A Soldier's Play so I do think some of my predictions are impacted by that:

PLAYS:
- Best Play: Slave Play
- Best Revival: Betrayal (though I'm thinking this could be A Soldier's Play too)
- Actor: Tom Hiddleston, Betrayal (would definitely prefer Jake here as well, but I think it's gonna be Tom)
- Actress: Joaquina Kalukango, Slave Play
- Featured Actor: David Alan Grier, A Soldier's Play
- Featured Actress: Lois Smith, The Inheritance
- Direction: Stephen Daldry, The Inheritance
- Scenic Design: A Christmas Carol (I think this is a more "classic" best scenic design but I'd have no complaints if it went to Slave Play)
- Costume Design: A Christmas Carol (same thoughts as for scenic design)
- Lighting Design: The Sound Inside (I don't think I've seen anyone else agree with me on this but iirc most of the set/spaces on stage were carved out by lighting alone)
- Sound Design: The Sound Inside
- Score: A Christmas Carol 

MUSICALS:
- Best Musical: Moulin Rouge (though I'd personally prefer JLP, I think Moulin Rouge seem to be the more all-round palatable pick)
- Actor: Aaron Tveit, Moulin Rouge
- Actress: Adrienne Warren, Tina
- Featured Actor: Danny Burstein, Moulin Rouge
- Featured Actress: Lauren Patten, Jagged Little Pill
- Direction: Alex Timbers, Moulin Rouge
- Book: Jagged Little Pill (there seems to be a large portion of people who disliked the JLP book, so I could also see Tina taking it)
- Scenic Design: Moulin Rouge
- Costume Design: Moulin Rouge
- Lighting Design: Moulin Rouge
- Sound Design: Moulin Rouge
- Choreography: Moulin Rouge
- Orchestrations: Moulin Rouge

[Rycbar]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 8:23am

I just wanted to say though I did not see the other two musicals in the category I was really impressed with the lighting in Moulin Rouge. Lighting is not something I normally think about much but in this case I really feel like it enhanced the musical more so than normal.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 5:56pm

In 2019 I got 21 / 26 correct, and in retrospect, it should have been 23 (I didn't trust my gut enough for Choreography and Revival of a Play). 

2019-20 was a Mickey Mouse theatre season. It would be a shame if I didn't get at least 24 right this time. 

Updated On: 9/25/21 at 05:56 PM

[Dolly80]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 6:54pm

I still can’t get my head around Kyle Soller not being nominated for Best Actor.

[Dolly80]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 6:54pm

I still can’t get my head around Kyle Soller not being nominated for Best Actor.

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 10:13pm

Soller's Tony omission is surprising, since he won the Olivier for ''Inheritance.''

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBQ8lZKpoj4

Updated On: 9/25/21 at 10:13 PM

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 10:16pm

It still makes no sense to me, either.

And I find the love for “Slave Play” that I’m seeing online to be a bit ridiculous since when it was playing a lot of those same people (and I’m not even talking about anyone in this thread) said it was “meh” at best.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 10:39pm

I was pretty surprised Andrew Burnap got the nomination because if anything I would've chosen Kyle Soller as well.

I think Slave Play benefits from the pandemic year, as jaded as that may sound, because it could be rather shocking on first watch but as time goes on I think people remember it more fondly since it does seem to have a specific message that's topical (and the BLM movement can't have hurt). I did like a lot of the actors and design elements too, regardless of the script itself.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 10:39pm

It still saddens me Tveit will get a TONY award for his performance. Vocally? Sure. Great voice. Sang great. Acting? OOF. Maybe one of the worst performances I've seen. The beginning of the show was so electric, then he comes strolling on at a 5 energy wise and gives some wooden narration. Then when *spoiler* she dies, and he gives a flat, boring "Santine" line reading. Oof. Awful. 

I do think Moulin Rouge will win Best Musical, and, I mean, for all it's faults, it's a great evening of theater. So I think that's fine. And Warren winning the Tony is justified, although I wasn't quite blown away. Feel like other people - much like Elphaba - will do it just as well. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 10:46pm

I think “Moulin Rouge” will be the big winner of the night in (I’d guess) most of the technical categories along with Musical, Tveit and Burstein. They’re going to be very lucky “Six” didn’t open last year.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 11:15pm

Yeah, I kind of think Moulin Rouge MIGHT have won Best Musical in a normal Tonys year. It's a great night of theater and Timbers did great work. So I can't fault them there. Some of the performances were not my favorite. But, yeah, Six and Flying Over Sunset could have been major upsets. Plus now Warren can get her Tony and so can Sharon for "Caroline.." 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 11:18pm

RippedMan said: "Yeah, I kind of think Moulin Rouge MIGHT have won Best Musical in a normal Tonys year. It's a great night of theater and Timbers did great work. So I can't fault them there. Some of the performances were not my favorite. But, yeah, Six and Flying Over Sunset could have been major upsets. Plus now Warren can get her Tony and so can Sharon for "Caroline..""

Or, if you prefer, Patten and Patti. Jo and Joanne.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 11:40pm

Oh jeez, totally forgot about Company. What an incredible night of theater. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 11:44pm

Jordan Catalano said: "I think “Moulin Rouge” will be the big winner of the night in (I’d guess) most of the technical categories along with Musical, Tveit and Burstein. They’re going to be very lucky “Six” didn’t open last year."

In a normal world, I don't see SIX winning Best Musical at the 2020 Tonys. SIX is likable and it makes for a good time at the theatre, but by no means am I saying it is a great show deserving of that prize. The book brings the show down big-time. 

Girl from the North Country (and perhaps Flying Over Sunset) may probably still have higher odds against SIX next year, but I'm pretty sure A Strange Loop will end up transferring to Broadway in the spring and stealing the spotlight. 

 

Updated On: 9/26/21 at 11:44 PM

[RippedMan]

Posted: 9/25/21 at 11:47pm

Interesting. I think it always comes down to the art-house show vs. the commercial show. Wicked vs. Caroline, etc. And sometimes the right show wins (Fun Home), but not sure here. 

[JGPR2]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 12:01am

"I love Aaron Tveit, but if I was a voter I would be a “No” vote. Thrilled he’s finally a nominee, but the performance was nothing extraordinary."

I don't get your logic. The voters gave him a nomination so if you vote "no" because you believe he is not worthy of award then why did you bother giving him a nomination? There have been plenty of actors IMO who have won "Best Actor" in a musical Tony who have not given extraordinary performances. A perfect example is David Hyde Pierce winning for his role in "Curtains". I love the guy and saw him in "Curtains" and there was nothing special about his performance or the show. I think he won mainly because he is well liked in the Broadway community. Sometimes it is just luck and there is no real competition, other years there are actors who lose because the competition was fierce. IMO Alex Brightman was fantastic in "School Of Rock" but he just happened to be in show the year of "Hamilton" and have Leslie Odom Jr. and Lin Manuel-Miranda in the same category.  Stuff happens.

Updated On: 9/26/21 at 12:01 AM

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 12:26am

''I think “Moulin Rouge” will be the big winner of the night in (I’d guess) most of the technical categories along with Musical, Tveit and Burstein. They’re going to be very lucky “Six” didn’t open last year.''

''Six'' was set to open March 12, 2020, but that also became the day Broadway shut down over COVID. Had the Tony cutoff date been March 13th instead, I still think ''Moulin Rouge!'' would've beat ''Six'' for Best Musical. ''Moulin Rouge's'' closest competitor would've been ''Girl From the North Country.''

However, ''Six'' would've been the slam-dunk winner for Best Score.

Looking ahead, I wonder how the 2022 Tonys will deal with the cast of ''Six.'' The 2019 Olivier Awards had all 6 women share one nomination for Featured Actress, but they lost to Patti LuPone in ''Company.'' I imagine the Tonys won't allow the ''Six'' sextet to share a Featured Actress nomination.

The Tonys previously turned down the request to have the four girls in ''Matilda'' share a Tony nomination, and I still say it was a terrible precedent to let the three boys in ''Billy Elliott'' compete (and win) as one for Best Actor. 

Updated On: 9/26/21 at 12:26 AM

[JGPR2]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 12:37am

"The Tonys previously turned down the request to have the four girls in ''Matilda'' share a Tony nomination, and I still believe it was wrong to let the three boys in ''Billy Elliott'' compete as one for Best Actor."

I understand about the three boys in "Billy Eliott but would you have been ok with nomination for the boy who played "Billy" on the night the show opened?

Updated On: 9/26/21 at 12:37 AM

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 12:46am

''I understand about the three boys in "Billy Eliott but would you have been ok with nomination for the boy who played "Billy" on the night the show opened?''

At least that would've been more consistent with their rules: that only the actors who perform on opening night are Tony-eligible. In the same show, David Bologna and Frank Dulce shared the role of Billy's pal, Michael. But only Bologna got the Tony nomination because he played the opening night!

I'd also question the fairness of having a child actor who does 2-3 shows a week competing against adult actors who do 8 shows a week.

On top of it all, the Tonys ruled that the Tony voters needed to see only 1 of the 3 Billys to vote for them. Which meant they didn't see 2 of the 3 Billys up for the prize. The boys weren't clones. I actually paid to see all three. One was a better dancer. One was a better singer. But they weren't equally Tony-worthy.

Updated On: 9/26/21 at 12:46 AM

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 3:45am

''A perfect example is David Hyde Pierce winning for his role in "Curtains". I love the guy and saw him in "Curtains" and there was nothing special about his performance or the show. I think he won mainly because he is well liked.''

I, too, was surprised that Pierce won the Tony, especially over Raul Esparza (''Company'' ), who had won the Drama Desk and Outer Critics prizes.

I was similarly surprised that Tony Shaloub won the Tony for ''The Band's Visit,'' in which he barely sings anything. He beat Ethan Slater (''SpongeBob SquarePants'' ), who won the Drama Desk and Outer Critics. ... In 2010, Shaloub was a riot in ''Lend Me a Tenor,'' but he didn't get a Tony nomination. Maybe it all balances out. There's timing, taste, competition, popularity, luck, etc.

Aaron Tveit has been passed over for Tony nominations in the past for ''Next to Normal'' and ''Catch Me If You Can,'' so he's been grateful to finally score some Tony recognition. If he should win, Tveit has said it wouldn't be just about ''Moulin Rouge!,'' but the lifelong journey that's taken him to this point . 

Updated On: 9/26/21 at 03:45 AM

[CPannullo]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 9:39am

Do we know if any other shows other than JLP, Tina, and Moulin Rouge are performing tonight?

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 9:57am

CPannullo said: "Do we know if any other shows other than JLP, Tina, and Moulin Rouge are performing tonight? "

Among the active shows, “American Utopia”, “Freestyle Love Supreme”, and “Ain’t Too Proud” (with John Legend) will all be performing tonight. There will also be a “Hairspray” reunion featuring members of the OBC. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 9/26/21 at 12:27pm

JGPR2 said: ""I love Aaron Tveit, but if I was a voter I would be a “No” vote. Thrilled he’s finally a nominee, but the performance was nothing extraordinary."

I don't get your logic.The voters gave him a nomination so if you vote "no" because you believe he is not worthy of award then why did you bother giving him a nomination?"

Because they're completely different people. Only about 50 people vote for the nominations whereas almost 800 vote for the actual awards. So it would make perfect sense that the majority of the 50 nominators vote for him to win, but there are enough of the 750 others who vote against him that he loses. I don't see that happening, but it's certainly possible as we don't really know how the vast majority of the voters feel about these shows.