Tony prediction video from Goldderby because....why not?

[chanel]

Are Mary-Louise Parker, Danny Burstein, Tom Hiddleston, Lois Smith and Lauren Patten really locks?

Slave Play vs The Inheritance?

And why are the Tonys taking so long?

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2020/broadway-tony-awards-predictions-1203915617/

[ACL2006]

Is Moulin Rouge a lock for Best Musical?

[jacobsnchz14]

All of these JLP performances on the parade, the NBC special, their live stream concert tonight, release of the coffee table book have me convinced that the exposure alone is enough to consider it a show that wants to win Best Musical. Not that MR doesn’t want it, but JLP is maintaining a presence. This show was
probably already a lock for Book, anyway.

[ACL2006]

Both Moulin Rouge and TINA have gone silent since Broadway shutdown. Though TINA is the outsider to win Best Musical.

[Wayman_Wong]

''Moulin Rouge!'' hasn't been totally silent since the Oct. 15 announcement of the Tony nominations. On Oct. 26, Variety.com did an hourlong online reunion with Baz Luhrmann and the show's Tony-nominated creatives and cast members. And on Dec. 21, Aaron Tveit, Karen Olivo, Danny Burstein, Sahr Ngaujah and Robyn Hurder - all Tony nominees - will do a virtual ''Conversation'' with the 92nd Street Y, about the making of the show.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

It only appears as if many shows have gone "silent." Without any date for the voting period or ceremony, shows are not going to ramp up campaigning for a Tony. If they start that up too early (like if they had some big event now but the ceremony isn't until May) it wouldnt help them at all. Expect that side of things to snap into focus once the powers that be finally announce a date.

As for predictions, I agree that Moulin Rouge! is ahead. A big joyful spectacle is going to look pretty appealing during the most joyless stressful time in history for Broadway. There is a long difficult road ahead for the industry and this is the type of show that can bring ticket buyers back.

Some of the pundits seem to let their own likes/dislikes get in the way of their predictions...ok well maybe just Harry Haun. I don't know why he is so dismissive of  A Soldier's Play winning revival. Whether he liked it or not, its undeniable that it got great reviews, features an important and timely subject, and overperformed in nominations. Sure it's possible that Betrayal takes it, but then why couldn't it get in Zawe Ashton or Charlie Cox if it was that strong? On paper, the race is A Soldier's Play's to lose.

It feels like all the musical categories are pretty locked up this year. I guess there's a real race for Book...since all of these books are full of problems its difficult to choose the winner (In the video Musto says Score should have been eliminated this year but I strongly disagree. There was some wonderful music in the plays. It's Book that should have disappeared as I'm skeptical any of these three would have made the cut in a full season). But JLP has the most book scenes and most topical content, so it takes Book along with Featured Actress for Patten. Warren wins for Tina. Moulin Rouge wins everything else. End of story.

Play categories are much more exciting. Genuine races for Play, Lead Actor, Featured Actor, Director, Score, design categories. And while I agree that MLP is out front for Lead Actress, I can see a world in which Kalukango pulls off an upset.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Well they did another one with a new set of journalists....and holy moly did no one teach these guys not to talk over someone when they're speaking??? Matt Windman, looking at you! Only Andy Humm waits his turn while the others bicker and the video session turns their overlapping dialogue into incomprehensible blabber. Hasn't everyone learned by now during this Zoom call saturated pandemic that you cant talk over people on these video services or the sound gets messed up?

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2020/2021-tony-awards-predictions-ceremony-news-4102859376/

Tidbits:

Most are cynical about any of the musicals coming back except Moulin Rouge. I guess no one can really predict what society will look like, but I would surely think Tina would be one to return. JLP might be a question mark, but all signs point to producers being heavily invested in its return. 

Brian Lipton calls The Inheritance an "all white cast" which I'm so tired of hearing. Yes, the five leads were white, but are we going to continually undermine the contributions of the POC actors? The "ensemble" of this show isn't the same as being a nameless person in the chorus of a musical. They all had meaningful roles. Andy Humm is again the one to wait his turn and point out this incorrect statement.

No one can pronounce Joaquina Kalukango. ugh.

Tom forgets for the second time that Aaron Tveit is the only Lead Actor nominee.

David Sheward is sticking by Laura Linney for Lead Actress. I don't see it, but power to him for keeping the race interesting with a left field pick.

They spend SO much time talking about how voters vote for whatever show will tour the best...even though the road voter Tony "block" has been greatly diminished to about 10% of the total number of voters (in years gone by it was closer to 25%). This trend of "tour friendly shows win best musical" has been demolished for the past several years in a row. Gentleman's Guide, Fun Home, Bands Visit, etc. Can we PLEASE retire this topic when talking about these awards? 

[singer234]

I wonder, even though I do think Patten is an almost lock, if there is any world where the Jagged nominees split the vote and Robyn Hurder takes featured actress. Such a small chance, but damn would I love to see her win. Ruthie Ann Miles did it in 2015, albeit with a meatier role.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

The difference in that year was that there was not a united vote around any of the 3 women from Fun Home. And the campaign for that show didnt really do anything to say "you should vote for this one if you want to support the show." So Miles benefitted from a split race, where I imagine the vote tallies were all close.

This year, there is a strong consensus around Patten. I fully expecet her to get the lionshare of the votes, so vote splitting wont be in play

[Wayman_Wong]

In a new video, Alex Timbers vows ''Moulin Rouge!'' WILL come back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXVIfY2ud6I

[henrikegerman]

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2020/2021-tony-awards-predictions-ceremony-news-4102859376/

Consensus of this panel's that Slave Play is a play that, in sum, tells white people they are all racist,  

What a cheaply reductive, utterly dim, narcissistic and mindless description of a complex, courageous and accomplished play. 

As an old white guy myself, I find it bizarre and disconcerting that five old white guys would all summarize the meaning of this play strictly in terms of their own white guilt.  

The play is about intimacy, truth, history and desire and how our shared legacy of racism and imperialist and patriarchal exploitation impacts the sex lives of interracial couples.  It's also about the challenge of honesty about this legacy in general. 

To come away from it and see it primarily as a play that is about your own internalized guilt as a white audience member... get over yourselves, Mates.