Plays at the 2021 Oscars

[JBroadway]

Looking through GoldDerby and other prediction sites, it seems that there are 3 major Oscar contenders that are based on plays: "One Night in Miami," "The Father," and "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom." 

I've been following the Oscar races for the past 8 years or so, and I've noticed that predictions are often self-fulfilling. Because the pool of eligibility is so massive, widespread predictions are essential to generating the buzz that leads to actual nominations. The buzz could still shift in the next few months, but right now, these 3 films are on track to receive Best Picture nominations. 

It's really exciting to see movies based on plays getting such mainstream attention, especially in a year where the theatre industry has been left out to dry. Looking through the list of past nominees, it seems like the last time we had 3 Best Picture nominees based on stage shows was in 1984 ("Amadeus," "A Soldier's Story," "A Passage to India" - and even that is a little bit of an asterisk, because "A Passage to India" was jointly based on the play and the original novel by E.M Forster) 

I'm especially excited that "One Night in Miami" is getting so much attention, because I was pretty blown away by the play when I saw it at the Donmar, but the play never got much attention in the theatre industry compared to the other 2. 

I know that we also have other theatre adaptations like The Prom and Boys in the Band, but I don't believe they're eligible: if I understand the adjusted Oscar rules correctly, I believe Netflix/Amazon movies are only eligible if they were originally slated for a theatrical release prior to the pandemic. I think both of these Ryan Murphy projects were only ever slated to go straight to streaming. But please correct me if I'm wrong!

And I know there are others on the docket like "Everybody's Talking About Jamie," the new "Macbeth" film from Ethan Coen, but I think those films' releases are still pretty up in the air, and might end up being delayed like "West Side Story." And in any case, those 2 films don't have a lot of Oscar Buzz.

Still, so cool to see an increase in theatre representation in the film industry this year! 

[Broadway61004]

I agree it's wonderful so many plays stand a shot at nominations this year.  However, I'll caution that it's still very, very early in the Oscar race.  We're essentially where we were in August last year (since the awards are pushed back 2 months), and looking back at some predictions from August 2019, "Hustlers", "Just Mercy", "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood", "Harriet" are just some of the ones that were on almost everyone's list, while "Parasite" was often listed as a "possible alternate" or "long shot".  And with the insane film calendar this year (festivals being cancelled, postponed or going digital; new eligibility rules regarding streaming, etc), who knows what's actually going to happen.  But hopefully you're right and these films remain strong contenders!