Broadway Cancelled Until Sept 6- Page 5

[ArtMan]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 11:19am

HogansHero said: "@ArtMan I guess then the question becomes what was the point of mentioning the experience in Jacksonville and other cities? Broadway is not going to reopen, or not, because of what is, or is not, being done in Jacksonville et al. Everywhere in NYC is practicing the Costco experience that is, for you, an exception.

@Broadway61004 The primary financial driver is not the patrons but the producers. So long as their is social distancing, there is no financial model for Broadway that is viable so, even if a show wereguaranteed to sell out, it would fail economically. (This, btw, is the fantasy/wishful thinking in the Plaza Suite announcement.)"

Hogan, The point of mentioning was....that Tom5 stated that once we no longer have to social distance everything will be okay.  I stated, in response, the virus is going to be with us a long time, because NOW, when people are SUPPOSE to social distance, they aren't practicing social distancing and wearing masks.  It's wonderful what NYC is doing.  However that is not the norm in other cities and states, like Jacksonville, the town in Colorado and Naples, Florida.  How is Broadway going to reopen, when someone from another state that does not have strict guidelines in place, brings it back to NYC? The cycle of infection starts all over again.   It really does help to read prior posts in their entirety.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 11:20am

Mr Roxy said: "To Sutton and Robbie.

Please accept my apologies if you think I was minimizing your loss. All I was doing is stating what knowledgeable people say about it. 2 ER doctors had a video on social media saying that the social distancing is not necessary. Believe it still on you Tube but taken down by FB"
 

It was taken down because it was misleading and easily debunked by actual experts, Roxy. But you don’t care.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/may/07/facebook-posts/facebook-post-cites-doctors-widely-disputed-calcul/

 

 

 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 11:39am

Hi ArtMan, I got that point you were making, but here's the thing: if someone from Jacksonville who has not been practicing safe procedures comes to New York, they are going to have no choice but to practice them if they intend to go to the theatre (or eat, for that matter). The requirements (masks, social distancing, etc) are in place because everyone is assumed to be contagious so introducing a sick Floridian to the mix will not start a cycle of infection all over again. There is a reason health care workers in New York have a lower rate of infection than the general population, and there is a very important behavioral lesson in that statistic. (And no, I do not think Broadway (or most restaurants etc) can reopen with social distancing in place.)

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 12:45pm

HogansHero said: "@Broadway61004 The primary financial driver is not the patrons but the producers. So long as their is social distancing, there is no financial model for Broadway that is viable so, even if a show wereguaranteed to sell out, it would fail economically. (This, btw, is the fantasy/wishful thinking in the Plaza Suite announcement.)"

Oh yes, that's absolutely the key to it as well.  But a big part of that with producers will be trying to figure out when people will actually come to the theatre, how many, what ticket prices they'll be willing to pay, where they'll be coming from, etc.  I could also (much less likely, but who knows) see a world where some of the unions are willing to make temporary concessions on salary or certain other parts of contracts, just to get their folks employed again if they're getting enough pressure from their members to get back to work.  It's all a giant puzzle, but so much will be determined based on who is actually willing to come back to the theatre and how much they'll be willing to spend on a ticket.  In theory, if we could somehow project that a show could only reopen to 35% capacity but would be able to sell every one of those tickets at a premium price, it may be worth it.  But even if somehow we could stretch that to 50-60% capacity once restrictions start to be lifted, if all those seats are only going to be sold for minimum prices, it may still not be worth it.

[JennH]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 12:46pm

This is the sad part of this whole mess. When nowhere near enough was done to stop this in its tracks as much as possible from the beginning, this is what happens. The two main issues of public health and economics come to loggerheads, and I'm really beginning to believe they're incompatible with eachother. And it makes me sick to my stomach. We reopen too fast and the case, hospitalization, and death rate WILL spike. At that point, deaths won't even happen because of the virus, it'll happen because of an overwhelmed heath system/inadequate care. And yes, while getting this isn't exactly a death sentence, more and more people without underlying issues are having sever symptoms. Who knows why. More cases inherently will translate to more hospitalizations and death, just like more testing inherently translates to a higher case count. 

But on the other side of the coin, opening too slow will cause a collapse. LA County just extended their pause until August...how long do you think it'll be before riots and violence happens? When will we all wake up to that collapse and find our dollar is worth nothing and has no buying power, and mass homelessness and starvation follows? We can say there should be an economic plan in place from our "leaders" so people CAN stay home to begin with all we want, but the sad truth of the matter that almost none of my fellow progressives want to acknowledge, is that money is math and math is never wrong, just like we tout that science is never wrong. U.I. in every state is at it's breaking point. Or if they're aren't yet, they will be. The most recent relief bill was trillions of dollars...and now there's more proposals that also equal TRILLIONS of dollars of "relief" to come from...where? The sky? The millennial generation and every generation after will NEVER be able to pay that debt off, because what will happen from there is pretty sizable tax increases everywhere in an to attempt to do so, and I know NO ONE wants to pay more taxes than we need to. We already are trillions in debt with pretty much no ability to pay it off already. All these relief bills did was print money. For an emergency, yes, and it needed to happen, but it still doesn't negate what we learned in Economics 101. All printing money does, is lead to hyperinflation. The phrase throwing bad money after bad is still as relevant as it ever was, and if not kept in check, it has the ability to create massive collapses. I see many of my fellow progressives ask why the gov't was suddenly able to find the money for these relief bills but not for some sort of universal healthcare system. Y'all, we never had it in the first place. All that's been done for years, but especially since the 2008 crash, was printing money as a way to prop the system up. That is a system that eventually collapses. ALWAYS. 

And DO NOT make the mistake of saying I value money more than human life. Merely trying to discuss the economic side of this isn't that at all, it's something that absolutely needs to be discussed and acknowledged for any momentum forward, along with public health. I fear for needless death from opening too soon JUST AS MUCH as I fear a total collapse and money being worthless from pauses lasting through the end of the year. I'm seeing no creative and constructive solutions from anyone. Right wing is pretending the virus isn't an issue at all and wants to play public health sacrificial lamb with us, but left wing is just wanting to, as the phrase above says, throw bad money after bad. If that recent proposal of 2,000 a month goes through, please explain where that money will come from without having to just print it and create hyperinflation? Because I haven't heard one yet. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/jim-cramer-the-us-is-running-out-of-time-to-stave-off-a-depression.html?fbclid=IwAR1iByVfWlXAZNvEQX4YEFS-87I5WGjznF-70bngYFUiV0bC5GLy-70oUpI

^This guy is perfectly aware of the the virus's very real problems, he doesn't deny that. He's just stating that without a REAL plan of testing and isolation from the gov't we'll almost have no choice but to reopen just to to avoid Depression 2.0. Science doesn't care about our feelings, and neither does math. 

Updated On: 5/13/20 at 12:46 PM

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 12:50pm

Spot on, JennH. It's an ugly truth, and it's only going to get uglier as both sides of the argument fight for their side of the argument. Unfortunately, I don't know how it'll be resolved before it becomes textbook depression. 

[binau]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 12:59pm

Thank you JennH, I appreciate that you capture some of the complexity here. There is not an easy answer to what we should do next given this mess. 

[matt1982]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 1:07pm

Great points, Jenn!  Thanks for this.  It really seems no win on both sides.  

[Jarethan]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 1:25pm

I have stated elsewhere, but will summarize here.  I fall into the category of a long-term, regular theatergoer who can afford to purchase tickets (although I still am very careful about my spending patterns),and have attended probably 40 - 45 performances last season, probably 15 - 20 on Broadway.  When I come to NYC 2- 3 times a year, I stay in a hotel, eat at restaurants, etc.  The perfect tourist.  

I recently turned 70.  I am in very good health.  I have quarantined from the beginning, only leaving my property for essential activities, e.g., Costco, pharmacy, local super market, or a walk around the neighborhood.  It is stressful, but I am coping.

As much as I love the theatre-- some my favorite lifetime memories are of theater performances I have experienced -- it is inconceivable to me that I will attend a theatrical performance or dine out or go to a movie or museum until there is either a vaccine or an incredible new medicine to treat the thing, ideally prophylactically.  My life will not be as rich, but that is a price I am willing to pay in hopes of avoiding this virus.  I think there are a lot of people out there who will feel the same way.  (NOTE: and in comparison to not seeing my sons and close friends, missing the theatre pales).

I hate to put a political spin on this topic, but the average older regular theatregoer is much more likely than not to be a liberal (past studies have found that to be the case) who are not happy with the way this situation has been handled by Washington.  I simply do not believe that asa group they are going to be willing to take a big risk to attend stage event for a couple of hours, whereas their conservative counterparts (who do not attend the theatre nearly as much) might be willing to do so, based on WH direction.  I fear that Broadway (and most touring theatres) will not be viable in any serious way until those people feel safe.  We may love theatre -- I certainly do -- but i do not feel it is worth risking my health or, god forbid, my life.

I also feel that -- and I know this is a theatre board -- debating whether schools will open and what's going to happen to poor kids who do not have home computers, etc. -- is a much more critical issue for most people than when they will be able to attend the theatre, which is always discretionary.  I DO NOT WANT TO TRIVIALIZE THE IMPACT ON PEOPLE WHO WORK IN THE ARTS (MY SON IS A STARVING ARTIST MUSICIAN) -- i am looking at this specifically from the perspective of the potential attendee.  And I believe they will stay home in droves -- and make do with watching all the streaming services that did not exist a decade ago -- until they feel safe.

Finally, even if there are enough of them who decide to take the risk, it is absolutely not clear to me when theatre will be economically viable anyway.  Can even Hamilton break even if they have to play to audiences that are sufficiently social distanced.  Under what circumstances will the casts of MR or Hamilton or WSS, to name three shows with phrenetic movement on-stage, be safe to go back on stage, without increasing their risk as well.

[JennH]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 2:07pm

Thank you to those above. I honesty was expecting backlash. I still might of course, but to pretend this isn't a complex issue now, is insane. A friend who I love dearly, but don't agree with entirely on everything (but we do on most things as progressives), she did make a point about the ability to be creative economically. We CAN'T get creative about a virus we still don't know a lot about. This is indeed a fair point that I had hard time disagreeing with because it's pretty logical in itself, but since when do political leaders use that kind of logic once they reach their status...love of one's position still runs strong everywhere. Aside from that, even money math has a threshold for creativity before it plainly doesn't add up anymore. 2+2 still equals 4 in the end. 

I certainly don't envy anyone in decision making positions or those working round try clock to find treatments and vaccines...which, lets also be honest, there's big money involved there too. The person/group that makes viable treatments and/or the vaccine will be rewarded handsomely. 

Updated On: 5/13/20 at 02:07 PM

[Pashacar]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 3:47pm

These are all great points, and I appreciate the discussion so far. One thing that your post made me consider, Jarethan, is whether once things start to reopen, shows that cater to more conservative audiences will start to get ahead, and those to more liberal (and perhaps older) audiences, who are more reticent to gather in public, will have a harder time. Obviously this is all quite speculative, but I could see a few factors leading to fewer risks on content and subject matter in the coming years. Hope not.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 5:04pm

I recall Caroline, or Change and Flying Over Sunset were both pushed to the fall. Does anyone think either will be able to be pushed to next spring(that’s if things will even open up next spring).

Updated On: 5/13/20 at 05:04 PM

[Robbie2]

Posted: 5/13/20 at 8:51pm

The HOLLYWOOD Bowl cancelled the 2020 season it will not reopen this year....I also heard that Radio City Music Hall will cancel shows for 2020! 

As I speak with more industry friends-agent, actors, tech,producers, press-management offices they just don't see this happening unfortunately by the end of this year and it's deep down depressing at this point..I highly doubt BWAY will reopen after Labor Day-this fall -September is 4 months away and we won't have a better idea where things stand with this virus for at least another 2-4 months and a Social Distancing plan and SAFETY for ALL is such a BIG concern for the theaters that pack people in yet alone the economic state of being in a recession will have some impact as well.  Will MASKS be the new norm for attendees-for many it will be problematic. Opening next spring 2021 is the safest bet for all at this stage (starting rehearals in Jan-Feb) but it's all still an unknown...who knows?Tourists are not flocking back to BWAY-NYC this year seems to be the general consensus from all that I spoke with. This summer-fall will give the Producers and all involved in the industry time to market etc, cast and plan...for a spring opening-reopening if that happens....Fall 2021? Shows are just not going to start rehearsing this summer for a fall opening-reopening (just much too quickly) ...we will only be in phase 2 possibly 3 by the end of the summer - BWAY is phase 4 ~ Think of all the logistics involved in producing or reopening shows. It takes many many months and time is against us at this point for the fall.

Updated On: 5/14/20 at 08:51 PM

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 8:45am

Read an article in NYP that restaurant and bar owners are cold to the idea of reopening with 25 percent capacity. They say it simply is not worth it to reopen and than close again because they can't cut it at 25% and/or have the city close them down again .One owner said 75% is the bare minimum they can operate at.Some are ready to throw in the towel now.

This will indeed be an odd summer and Holiday season . Masks are no big inconvenience but the social.distancing is a killer .Unless there are real discussion on the 6 feet and 25% capacity rules we will be in a permanent recession . If NY does not get tourists and theater cannot return to a semblance of pre pandemic than our goose is cooked. Pick your opinion . Roll the dice . Strict rules will mean death of most large cities or phased reopening to pre pandemic life. We cannot live in a bubble forever. By the way ceasars in Vegas will reopen at 25% capacity. Any ideas how long that will last ?

Thoughts

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 8:45am

Duplicate post. Deleted it. Sorry

Updated On: 5/14/20 at 08:45 AM

[JGPR2]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 9:08am

" It was taken down because it was misleading and easily debunked by actual experts, Roxy. But you don’t care. "

Why should it be taken down even if it is misleading?  I thought this was a country where you had the freedom to decide for yourself what is true and what is not true. Seriously, are you telling me that there is nothing currently on youtube that is not misleading or wrong?

[Kad]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 10:03am

JGPR2 said: "" It was taken down because it was misleading and easily debunked by actual experts, Roxy. But you don’t care. "

Why should it be taken down even if it is misleading? I thought this was a country where you had the freedom to decide for yourself what is true and what is not true. Seriously, are you telling me that there is nothing currently on youtube that is not misleading or wrong?"

No, I did not tell you that. 
This is a global crisis and passing around debunked and dubious information could literally cost lives and prolong the pandemic. Stuff like that video is already being used to justify breaking laws and endanger people. Websites are private platforms and can decide what content they permit to be shared and what is not, from hate speech to porn to false claims. 
You can still believe whatever the hell you want.  

Updated On: 5/14/20 at 10:03 AM

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 10:22am

No but it goes both ways. We all have our points of view. We shall see how it plays out.I know of 2 businesses in my area who have already said will not reopen. One is a 60 year business.

Time will tell

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 11:53am

False information kills. Purveyors of it are murderers. You do not have the right to kill with speech. That is the law. (See, e.g., yelling fire in a crowded theatre.)

A business that will not reopen vs. a person who will never breathe again. You decide. 

Eternity will tell. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 12:01pm

BUT M’FREEDOMS!!!!

[Fosse76]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 12:04pm

JGPR2 said: "" It was taken down because it was misleading and easily debunked by actual experts, Roxy. But you don’t care. "

Why should it be taken down even if it is misleading? I thought this was a country where you had the freedom to decide for yourself what is true and what is not true. Seriously, are you telling me that there is nothing currently on youtube that is not misleading or wrong?"

Because free speech doesn't grant you the right to use third party platforms to spread untruths. You can say anything you want,  but you don't have a right to force a news network to report it; or for Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, BroadwayWorld, Newspapers, etc. to publish it. Free speech only restricts government action. 

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 12:40pm

Broadway also depends on tourism. NYC is the last place tourists will want to visit for the next few years.

[Damiensta]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 4:16pm

Charlie Williams just posted Frozen will not reopen

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 4:38pm

At what phase in reopening do you think they’ll let crews enter the theatres to take down the sets of shows that closed during the crisis? I imagine Hangman’s and Beetlejuices sets will still be in their respective theatres despite being closed.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/14/20 at 4:44pm

Call_me_jorge said: "At what phase in reopening do you think they’ll let crews enter the theatres to take down the sets of shows that closed during the crisis? I imagine Hangman’s and Beetlejuices sets will still be in their respective theatres despite being closed."

I think the answer will vary depending on miscellaneous factors, but I would expect that crews will be allowed in relatively soon as "construction" subject, of course, to the same things applying to other construction crews as they are currently being reopened.