Chris Jones' Pessimistic Outlook for Chicago and NYC Entertainment

[Menken Fan]

I'm afraid he's probably right.

"Few can figure out a way to fully quarantine actors or musicians who must tour, to avoid lawsuits filed by audience members who might get sick, or to make the economics of performance work with a 25 percent capacity. Even fewer of them can envisage taking audience temperatures in protective gear in the lobby and ejecting the fevered (instantly refunding their entire party?) while preserving a fun and cheery night out for everyone else."

Chicago Tribune: Reopening phases could doom live entertainment

 

[Jordan Catalano]

Yawn. It’s nothing to “doom” live theatre. There will be a vaccine and people will feel safe going out again. Theatre will continue and yes, it will take time for it to get back to where it was 8 weeks ago, but to use the word “doom” to describe theatre as a whole is just stupid and needlessly dramatic.

[ErikJ972]

Sadly I can't picture myself going to the theater again until there is a vaccine or an effective treatment. Same goes for the movies and other large, indoor events. I know too many people who have died and have too many friends and family that are at high risk. It's horribly depressing to think about.

[Alex Kulak2]

On the topic, I think Chicago theatre is gonna have a lot easier time bouncing back than New York Theatre. It's a lot safer to be in a 60-seat blackbox than a 1000-seat Broadway theatre

[HogansHero]

As I have said in other threads, people don't seem to allow themselves the luxury of become cognizant about history. We have so little experience with epidemics and pay so little attention to the rest of the world that we can embarrass ourselves by sprouting this doom nonsense. Hong Kong got over sars and is getting over this, America got over the spanish flu and it inaugurated a decade of extreme public interaction, and europe got over the bubonic plague, managing to let this Shakespeare guy sneak in between the bugs. There again, if Chris Jones had just been level headed, we would not be chatting about him, and when a critic doesn't have shows to see, they start worrying about their relevance and their job. (Not to pick on him per se; this is what most media has been doing.)

[Menken Fan]

I agree that the overall ‘doom’ outlook may be overblown. But I think the point about many, maybe most, smaller and mid-size theatre groups not returning after the pandemic is valid. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

HogansHero said: "As I have said in other threads, people don't seem to allow themselves the luxury of become cognizant about history. We have so little experience with epidemics and pay so little attention to the rest of the world that we can embarrass ourselves by sprouting this doom nonsense. Hong Kong got over sars and is getting over this, America got over the spanish flu and it inaugurated a decade of extreme public interaction, and europe got over the bubonic plague, managing to let this Shakespeare guy sneak in between the bugs. There again, if Chris Jones had just been level headed, we would not be chatting about him, and when a critic doesn't have shows to see, they start worrying about their relevance and their job. (Not to pick on him per se;this is what most media has been doing.)"

Yes agreed. Everyone says to learn lessons from the Spanish Flu about how it came in waves but then no one seems to remember that when that pandemic ended, everything did go back to normal fairly quickly. And that was after 50 million plus deaths (in a smaller population) and well before a flu vaccine was even a thing.

So yes, it's going to take some time, but live theatre and live events are not doomed.

[uncageg]

No they are not doomed and this is life taking its course.

It is not pretty and it is scary but we will bounce back. 

[JennH]

A good few thoughts...DID things go back to 'normal' that quickly after the Spanish flu? I have such a hard time believing that, only because social upheavals can happen in the blink of an eye but recovery from them takes, what feels like, forever. WWII ended in 1945 but it took a near decade for the world to be considered 'completely recovered'. Of course I use a literal war to make that point.

Jordan-I see the point you're trying to make and while using words like 'doom' is a clickbait and fear mongering journalism technique and I do believe that live entertainment will come back, will it come back the "same"? I think that is the point trying to be made. Maybe I'm just miscomprehending over cyber space, but any industry that's listed in the final phases of reopening, by the very nature of being last to reopen and having been losing money the longest out of everything else, will have the most difficult time bouncing back in ANY capacity, let alone to 'what it was'. Even if people feel safe being in more crowded spaces again thanks to reliable treatments and vaccines, the money won't be there. At least not for a while. As they say, even when it's over, it's not really over. 

I found this this, which was an interesting read and I'm glad heads are being put together, but I think we all can agree it will be a new normal...what that new normal looks like...well, who knows. https://apnews.com/67927c2a417bab285ab1c90108c5e761?fbclid=IwAR0ZCirIYJxSA3IlxAj3GKvjfeeTBdZXCzVzHUQlh6KBvD9Jt-r0_sXEnPw

[Fosse76]

JennH said: "A good few thoughts...DID things go back to 'normal' that quickly after the Spanish flu? I have such a hard time believing that, only because social upheavals canhappen in theblink of an eye but recovery from themtakes, what feels like, forever."

Yes, they did.  Just because you have a hard time believing that is irrelevant. 

"WWII ended in 1945 but it took a near decade for the world to be considered 'completely recovered'. Of course I use a literal war to make that point."

Recovery from a war and a pandemic aren't comparable. 

[Jarethan]

I thought the article was well thought out, even if the reference 'doomed' was melodramatic conceptually.  Even there, however, one thing he referred to was the number small non-profits that may be doomed.  I agree with him on the one hand, but on the other hand I imagine that new companies will emerge over time, after a vaccine is widely distributed.

The real issue is whether sufficient numbers of people will come out after the theaters reopen.  Pigeon Forge, Tennessee is one thing.  (I would bet money that the large majority of their audiences are Trumpsters,  which shows a prejudice of mine, I admit).  Broadway is another matter.  Cramped theaters, cramped rest rooms, chaos getting into the theatre and even mores upon exiting.  Getting to the theatre is another thing.  

Until they have been vaccinated, how many regular (not the type who see X shows week) theatergoers are really going to venture into the broadway area, particularly if they are coming from NJ or Westchester of Connecticut.  Re the latter, first, they have to deal with the stress of getting there.  If they drive in, they have to give their car to parking attendant;  Then they have to decide whether they are going to eat in a restaurant or not.  If not, do you subtract some number of potential attendees, who always  'make a night of it', and are not going to go through the hassle just to see a show).  I think these are real issues and will severely limit theatre attendance until people are vaccinated.  (And I didn't mention the possibility of having to wear a mask, which will severly negatively impact enjoyment levels for many people.

I have been going to the theatre for 55 years; for close to 2 decades, I saw virtually every show that opened.  That has only stopped because I do not live in the NY area any more.  But I still see probably 12 - 18 shows a year in NYC (depends on # of trips), another 15 - 18 performances in Florida, and usually 3 - 4 when in Mass.  I normally see another 20 - 30 movies a year in a theatre.  I do not anticipate attending any sort of theatre event until I am vaccinated OR we learn some new information that changes the big picture, which I doubt will happen (and I don't trust anything I hear from the Trump administration).

I suspect there are a lot of people like me out there, i.e., people who attend the theatre a lot who are not going to risk their health (or life) to see a show.  Maybe not long-term doom, but interim term doom is reasonable to expect.  Honestly, as this goes along and I read more and more, I am beginning to think that Broadway will not reopen this year, which saddens me to no end, but I dont see an alternative pre-vaccine.

[Sutton Ross]

Literal war? As opposed to, like, figurative war?

Cool.

Yes, they did.  Just because you have a hard time believing that is irrelevant. 

100%

[Mr. Wormwood]

JennH said: "A good few thoughts...DID things go back to 'normal' that quickly afterthe Spanish flu? I have such a hard time believingthat, only because social upheavals canhappen in theblink of an eye but recovery from themtakes, what feels like,forever. WWII ended in 1945 but it took a near decade for the world to be considered 'completely recovered'. Of course I use a literal war to make that point."

I think a decade of prosperity and economic growth immediately following the Pandemic (AND a war) says that yes things did get back to normal quickly

[JennH]

Ok fair enough. Although someone else brought up a good point. This may mean doom for the small theaters and non profits, etc. for the moment, but more will come in their place afterwards. They always do somehow. And another point a friend made was while it may take a bit to find any sort of decent financial footing for everyone and everything AND feel safe in crowds again, the arts renaissance that gonna come from this is gonna be BALLER once we do reach those points. Waiting for that juncture sucks of course, but people always want a meaningful shared connection and experience after a period of darkness that felt like it lasted forever. 

[Phantom of London]

Theatre can re-open when Cuomo says it can, he won’t do let until he is fairly satisfied with patrons and employees safety.

Even if theatre did re-open, patrons and emplyees have to be confident attending and not catching this horrid virus, so Chris is right you will need a vaccine or the this virus or elimination of new cases by herd immunity, both these are going to take time.

This has to be done in tandem with high unemployment, no tourists and employees not getting their bonuses in their paycheque.

The new normal will be dark theatres, shows like Hamilton won’t be able to change $800 a ticket and resort fees in New York and Las Vegas hotels will be a thing of the past (thankfully.)

When I come over to New York, I want to see new shows and doing so I will need travel insurance, which I won’t get for Covid. Sadly this is going to take time.

[Phantom4ever]

The minute they say Broadway is open, I am buying airfare, hotel, and Broadway tickets, partly because I miss it so much and partly because I feel like it may well be my last chance to see my favorite long running shows. It sounds like I may be in the minority. I don't care if I have to wear a haz mat suit, I'll see a show. I myself have to be particular careful because I have a chronic post nasal drip cough. So even before Corona, when I sat down in my seat and let out a cough or two (always into my shirt), everybody around me snapped their necks to give me dirty looks. I feel like post-Corona, when I have my random post nasal drip cough, I will be tarred and feathered out of the theater. 

And being able to see a movie? Doesn't that sound like an incredible luxury?  I can't wait. 

[HogansHero]

@Jann (because you've asked thoughtful questions)...

Things do not go back to how they were, even with less extensive world-altering phenomena. and they will not go back now. Things were never the same after WWII, or Vietnam, 9/11 etc etc etc as before

To understand New York, one must understand resilience and adaptability. That is the essence of New York. And the theatre is, of course,  quintessential New York. Things do not remain the same and that is what makes New York New York. Broadway, as we know it, is a relatively new thing. Off Broadway did not exist within the lives of a lot of people on here. And we will adapt now. How? no one knows and anyone who pretends to is BS'ing you. Chris Jones does what he does because he reacts. Of course such a person thinks the wheels have come off the train. 

There is an important story in the history of New York that defines it and its people as well as anything. I have told it here before but it bears repeating. September 7, 1664. The Dutch ran New Amsterdam. They had a good day. They went to bed. September 8. They wake up. New York Harbor is overflowing with British ships. The Dutch burghers wake up, they are now British subjects. They get dressed and go to work in New York City. It was "a different way of approaching things," Peter Stuyvesant explained.  

To resist the change that confronts us is to deny who we are. We adapt. And we will now. 

[A Director]

This article is about the 1918-1919 flu and theatre in this country.

https://www.americantheatre.org/2020/03/24/theatre-and-the-last-pandemic/

[SweetLips22]

I just wish the media[in Australia] would stop talking about the 'fn football and just occasionally headline the tragic position that ALL sectors of the Arts now find themselves.

The revenue from sports is far greater then that from the Art section so please work out a plan so we can get back to live entertainment, and not one that concerns any shape of a ball.

 

Thank you

[Kad]

The NYC theater scene has changed in meaningful ways even in our lifetimes. For instance, stepped up security before entering a Broadway theater only really happened in the last several years.

The Off-Broadway scene becoming dominated by the current group of nonprofit companies- which in turn became a pipeline to Broadway and also reduced the viability of commercial off-Broadway- is another example, though that of course took more time.

[Robbie2]

Interesting what they are doing in Seoul with regard to the Phantom tour happening there (Safety Measures) - Also, I have  a friend that said: The first row is kept empy and audience members are required to wear a mask and are not allowed to verbally chear or shout out after numbers or at the curtain call. Attendees are monitored also with temperature checks prior to entering the theater while practicing social distancing when entering as well and after each performance the venue is disinfected thoroughly and all staff wear masks front and backstage. Also, you have to have the app- South Korea has introduced a contact tracing app for people to prove they are corona-free and receive warnings about local virus cases.  https://www.instagram.com/tv/B_2DoKShU3U/?utm_source=ig_embed    

So, will BWAY take similiar measures when reopening?

[HogansHero]

Robbie2 said: "So, will BWAY take similiar measures when reopening?"

It depends on where things are in the arc at the time. I do not think we will reopen in the posture of the show in Korea, because I do not think there will be an audience or the possibility of spacing sufficiently. If there is a vaccine or effective treatment, or herd immunity, then most of those measures will not be relevant.