2nd outbreak coming this fall?

[Kimbo]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 6:58pm

Maybe people will say this doesn't warrant a separate thread - (maybe it doesn't, in which case mods can feel free to merge or delete).  But if in fact they're already all but guaranteeing a new outbreak this fall, how in the world does Broadway (or any live arts - opera, dance, etc.) proceed?  Would things really take a gamble and go back into rehearsal with the possibility of only running for 2 months or so before needing to shut back down?  Would live performances, including Broadway, essentially just not resume until this is all over sometime in 2021?  Are producers and unions currently working on new, at least temporarily less stringent, agreements which would allow shows to get filmed or streamed live while they're up and running this summer, so that there are revenue streams for actors, musicians and stage crew in the event of a second shutdown?  Wondering what others are thinking or hearing.

____________

From CNN:    "Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters on Monday that it is likely there will be another coronavirus outbreak in the fall.

"In fact, I would anticipate that that would actually happen,” said Fauci, who is a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force.

Trump said the administration was prepared in the event the virus returns after a period of fading over the summer, after social distancing measures."

[JennH]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 7:18pm

Simple answer? We don't know. We're still looking for answers that can't be given. And that 2nd outbreak could totally be avoided...or at least mostly avoided if we had competent leadership. I have no faith they're prepared. In fact I see the orange using it to his advantage. And that's what's makes even more angry than anything. 

Updated On: 3/30/20 at 07:18 PM

[Zion24]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 7:46pm

its likely that the virus will come back but presumably- and this is a big presumption- the government will be prepared: tracking it, treating it, masks to prevent overwhelming of hospitals, etc. With the right preparation/foresight, this wouldnt be nearly as bad as it is 

 

but yes i think the economy is in for a bumpy ride and that includes Broadway of course.

[Synecdoche2]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 8:00pm

Case numbers will break out as soon as we stop social distancing measures. My guess is Broadway is out of commission for at least 18 months.

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 8:16pm

I don’t think we can answer this. This is a day by day and week by week thing right now. Staying in the present is very important and seeing how things progress.

NYC seems to be setting itself up for continued issues. Did you see all the people out sightseeing the Navy Hospital ship and ignoring social distancing. It made me so sad and angry. I don’t have any strong desire to return to the city at this point. I don’t think many do, especially when they are seeing stuff like that in the media.

[Wick3]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 8:29pm

Too many unknowns since it's a new virus. We don't have a vaccine and by the time we develop a vaccine, the virus may have mutated to a deadlier strain so who knows...

Back in 1918, there were 3 waves of the Spanish flu. The second wave was in fall 1918 after the virus mutated and became a deadlier strain that affected mostly healthy individuals in their 20s/30s.

I do think social distancing is helping "flatten the curve" but once the mayor ends social distancing, it only takes 1 covid-19 positive (possibly asymptomatic) person to spread the virus and bring us back to square 1.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 9:00pm

Synecdoche2 said: "Case numbers will break out as soon as we stop social distancing measures. My guess is Broadway is out of commission for at least 18 months."

I think that's extremely pessimistic. I think measures will be in place to help combat a second outbreak and there's also the factor of more "herd immunity" with each passing day. China has re-opened schools in some areas and their numbers are still low. Things like immediate tracing of cases, possibly even temperature checks could be possible for large group events. Fauci also said there could be some effective therapies by that point even with no vaccine yet. So I think it's quite possible there will be a second outbreak, but I don't think Broadway is going to be closed for 18 months. 

[whatever2]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 9:26pm

> China has re-opened schools in some areas and their numbers are still low.

your faith in the accuracy of figures reported by the Chinese government is adorable!

[James885]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 9:30pm

I think this kind of speculation is futile at this point. Like Bettyboy said, this is rapidly developing situation that is being taken day by day. We have little idea of how things will look three weeks from now, let alone in six months.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 9:47pm

whatever2 said: ">China has re-opened schools in some areas and their numbers are still low.

your faith in the accuracy of figures reported by the Chinese government is adorable!"

I'm not saying they are as low as they say they are but they are very obviously lower than they were a month or two months ago (which were also probably underreported)

[whatever2]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 10:04pm

Except that nothing's obvious when the data are grossly incomplete. Since we'll never really know the truth about their testing rate, infection rate, mortality rate, recovery rate,immunity rate,et cetera, using them as a frame of reference is of extremely limited value. Pretty much we only know what the Chinese government wants us to know ... they haven't been reliable thus far; why project into the future based on what they choose to tell us?

[Fosse76]

Posted: 3/30/20 at 11:22pm

whatever2 said: "Except that nothing's obvious when the data are grossly incomplete. Since we'll never really know the truth about their testing rate, infection rate, mortality rate, recovery rate,immunity rate,et cetera, using them as a frame of reference is of extremely limited value. Pretty much we only know what the Chinese government wants us to know ... they haven't been reliable thus far; why project into the future based on what they choose to tell us?"

Sounds like Trump, too.

 

[PatrickDC]

Posted: 3/31/20 at 12:49am

While I agree it’s too early to speculate, I’ve been thinking about something. If you have/had it and recover — and the great percentage of people do — would you have a stronger immunity for another wave later this year? Or would you be just as susceptible? 
 

EDITED to answer my own question: Just heard a clip of Dr Fauci saying yes, if this virus works the way others do, you build up immunity so you either don’t get it a second time, or if you do the symptoms are much less severe. He says he is not 100% certain, who is with this bug, but that is likely. 

 

Updated On: 3/31/20 at 12:49 AM

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 3/31/20 at 2:59am

It seems that everyone should be tested for the virus and also be tested to see if they are immune. It could have some baring on how we move forward....

[Lot666]

Posted: 3/31/20 at 8:37am

Kimbo said: "Trump said the administration was prepared in the event the virus returns after a period of fading over the summer, after social distancing measures."

That's hilarious.

 

[RWPrincess]

Posted: 3/31/20 at 11:34am

I do think Broadway will reopen sooner rather than later however, I think strict social distancing measures will be in place for some time. Perhaps attendance limitations, mandatory masks and fever checks, less opportunities for lines, etc.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb and Andy Slavitt have already been posting quite a bit on twitter about how we get past this first wave successfully and prepare for the near future so I'm cautiously optimistic that future waves can be better managed. There are also lots of different treatment options being tested right now as well in addition to the antibody test and vaccine test.