Trump’s Economy Is On The Cusp Of Negative Growth

[javero]

Posted: 2/6/20 at 9:33am

And Mike Bloomberg knows it.  But, don't take my word for it.  Let's have a look-see thanks to Forbes. Please don't be put off by the 11/26/2019 date of the article because folks in the know are predicting that domestic GDP growth for 2020 will be in the 1.9% - 2.0% range.  Trump's spent 3 years bribing red state farmers with payments to look the other way as his tariffs (and record flooding) obliterated soybean prices, but I digress.

Trump’s Economy Is On The Cusp Of Negative Growth (Forbes)

Soybean Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart

I haven't climbed aboard the Bloomberg bandwagon yet, but he's perfectly positioned to call BS on Trump's tall claims.  And when he talks business, people tend to listen.

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 2/6/20 at 11:19am

Trump himself is a negative growth.

[Bronxdan]

Posted: 2/12/20 at 1:26pm

Are you sure about this?  The latest jobs report was stunning - something like 225,000 jobs created in one month . . . new trade deals with China, Mexico, Canada.  Unemployment at historic lows, and best off all, middle class income up 4K.  That is progress.  These are not predictions.  They are fact.

[javero]

Posted: 2/12/20 at 1:46pm

I'll concede that the numbers are impressive but encourage everyone to look at the risk factors going forward, the biggest being the impact of the Coronavirus  on China's economy and the dramatic dip in crude oil benchmark prices.  I also don't mean to insult anyone's intelligence by suggesting that the US economy does not exist in a vacuum.

Coronavirus ‘could cut China’s purchases of US goods’ under phase one trade deal

OPEC Slashes Oil Demand Forecast On Coronavirus Crunch

Updated On: 2/12/20 at 01:46 PM

[UncleCharlie]

Posted: 2/12/20 at 4:08pm

Bronxdan said: "Are you sure about this? The latest jobs report was stunning - something like 225,000 jobs created in one month . . . new trade deals with China, Mexico, Canada. Unemployment at historic lows, and best off all, middle class income up 4K. That is progress. These are not predictions. They are fact."

A trade deal with Mexico and Canada that is little more than NAFTA with a new coat of paint? A new deal with China that finally eases SOME of the damage from Trump's disastrous tariff war with China and got commitments to buy almost as much from farmers as they used to buy before Trump decided to see whose, um, "resolve" was bigger? Middle class income gains that have been completely eaten up by higher prices for goods again due to Trump's love affair with tariffs? 225,000 jobs created, a one month total far above Trump's 3 year average of 182,000 a month and a total that finally equalled the AVERAGE of what the Obama economy produced EVERY MONTH during his last 3 years in office? 6.6 million jobs created during Trump's first 3 years versus the 8.1 million Obama created during his last 3 years? Huge corporate tax cuts and givebacks that have exploded the federal deficit and have been used for the most part not to create new jobs for which they were intended but to do stock buybacks and pay out higher bonuses? Sure doesn't sound like progress to me.

Don't know if we are on the cusp of negative growth but if it doesn't happen, it's not because Trump isn't trying as hard as he can.

Updated On: 2/12/20 at 04:08 PM

[javero]

Posted: 2/13/20 at 12:44pm

Regarding the new deal with China, it's starting to look like Trump really overplayed his hand.  The Coronavirus is taking a toll on China's economy to the point that China will be hard pressed to keep its end of the bargain.  In Trump's demented mind he could declare victory and brag that he brought the Chinese government to its knees were it not for double whammy of a worldwide crude oil glut and plummeting crude oil prices.  I started trading oil stocks a couple of years ago.  Before that, I had no idea of the extent to which the US economy is tethered to crude oil prices, and how easily those prices can be manipulated by Putin & OPEC.  I've written enough.  I encourage anyone interested to check out the related articles below.

Big Oil warned White House that China trade deal was unrealistic

Why China Shuns U.S. LNG Despite Trade Deal

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 2/13/20 at 11:37pm

Bronxdan seems real

[Bronxdan]

Posted: 2/16/20 at 2:03pm

Dear SIr:
You say the 4K income increase for middle class families has bee eaten up by price increases?  Where did you get that info?  The last time I looked, inflation is very low.  Further, I see help wanted signs everywhere I go in the USA right now, especially in the Midwest.  And you can not deny that under Trump millions of people are off food stamps.  You are totally incorrect.  These are the good times.  It all fits together, the stock market, low unemployment, better trade deals, stunning consumer spending, like last Christmas.  You are pedaling fake statistics.  No one can take away the excellent economy under Trump. Trump will win easily in 2020.  The Democrats have a few genuine issues; but they wasted 3 years on stupid impeachment efforts that went nowhere, predictably.  They did it to themselves. 

 

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 2/16/20 at 6:26pm

"Further, I see help wanted signs everywhere I go in the USA right now, especially in the Midwest."

I don't. I see tons of recently empty storefronts though. In November I was in Indiana for a week.  Didn't see a single help wanted sign. Nor do I see them anywhere else.

Anybody else on this board see Help Wanted signs everywhere you go?

[UncleCharlie]

Posted: 2/16/20 at 6:32pm

Bronxdan said: "Dear SIr:
You say the 4K income increase for middle class families has bee eaten up by price increases? Where did you get that info? The last time I looked, inflation is very low. Further, I see help wanted signs everywhere I go in the USA right now, especially in the Midwest. And you can not deny that under Trump millions of people are off food stamps. You are totally incorrect. These are the good times. It all fits together, the stock market, low unemployment, better trade deals, stunning consumer spending, like last Christmas. You are pedaling fake statistics. No one can take away the excellent economy under Trump. Trump will win easily in 2020. The Democrats have a few genuine issues; but they wasted 3 years on stupid impeachment efforts that went nowhere, predictably. They did it to themselves.

"

To Whom It May Concern:

You are ... grossly misinformed... and...  I. Don't. Believe. You.

Watch any good movies lately. I highly recommend Kingpin, The R Rated Comedy.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 2/16/20 at 8:51pm

As far as Bernie is concerned think of Di Blassio let loose on the entire country

There is a saying "Be careful what you wish for.You may get it

He even admitted he had no idea how much Medicare For All  would cost and it fell on its face when tried in his Vermont. My urologist is from Britain where they have socialized medicine and she cringed at the idea of it coming here. By the way it ain't free.

There are no moderates in the list of survivors for the survivors. JFK would be kicked out of today's Democratic party for not be sufficiently left wing . 
 

Updated On: 2/16/20 at 08:51 PM

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 2/21/20 at 10:53am

"My urologist is from Britain where they have socialized medicine and she cringed at the idea of it coming here."

It's not uncommon for providers who leave their homeland to make more money to reinforce to others that they made the right decision. Talk to actual people whose lives were saved by the NHS and you get an entirely different story, based on patient experience.  Ask comedian Rob Delaney about the tragic illness and death of his young son in Britain.

[Bronxdan]

Posted: 2/21/20 at 10:52pm

To Finding Namo:  I have relatives in Northwest Indiana.  The place is bustling, yes with help wanted signs everywhere.  Northwest Indiana is experiencing a real estate explosion right now.  Houses are going up quickly because of all the people fleeing Illinois.  My brother's house went from 265K to 305K in two and a half years.  I can not vouch for all of Indiana.  This is one of the reasons why people in the Midwest fear the Democrats.  Things are so good in many parts of the country, that any change is scary.  Today's economic report was excellent.  No recession on the horizon, say the experts.  I hope for the best, for everyone.  Forgot:  Just read a business poll yesterday that said that 82% of small business owners are very confident that the economy will remain excellent for the remainder of the year.  That is good news.

Updated On: 2/21/20 at 10:52 PM

[Broadway Joe]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 9:26am

Unemployment being low doesn't count all the people who have had their unemployment benefits run out yet couldn't find a new job.

Help wanted signs everywhere and horrible minimum wage jobs doesn't mean that everyone is doing well.

[javero]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 3:49pm

I'm never a fan of spreading gloom and doom.  But, Trump faces serious headwinds from the combination of three powerful forces beyond his control, namely the Coronavirus, 10-year treasury yields, and crude oil benchmarks.

 Trump is reportedly furious that the stock market is plunging on coronavirus fears NOTE: he previously feigned having no interest in the stock market but insiders knew it was a bluff

10-year Treasury yield drops to new record low of 1.30% on coronavirus fears NOTE: he's harangued the Fed Reserve chief at every turn about the need to suppress interest rates, even going so far as to suggest recently that the US could benefit from negative interest rates ala the Japanese & Eurozone economies.  When pension fund, mutual fund, ETF, and university endowment managers start seeking higher returns elsewhere, the Fed reserve will be forced to raise those rates at the least opportune time for Trump politically. Then, the typical tightening of credit markets in an election year will cause mortgage rates and commercial loan rates to follow suit.

Oil Prices Extend Losses As Market Fears Pandemic NOTE: if West Texas Intermediate stays below $50 a barrel for much longer extensive lay-offs will occur fairly soon.  The domestic oil industry took a beating last year after shale oil (aka fracking) went bust. 

Despite not being a Trump fan, I wish him the best as president.  I just see his economic numbers tanking in the next quarter when the campaign season is in full stride.

Updated On: 2/26/20 at 03:49 PM

[Bronxdan]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 6:20pm

My fear is a Democratic win in November.  You want to talk tanking? The Democrats are pushing ending all offshore shore drilling as well as fracking.  That alone will cause a stock market crash.  Gas prices maybe 5-6 bucks a gallon like Europe.  Then health care to all including illegal aliens, as well as free college, free student loan forgiveness, free child day care, free vacation for new mothers and fathers, clobber the rich with taxes, and even those who are not rich, maybe reparations for all minorities who have any connection to slaves, grants for free housing.  Trillions upon trillions upon trillions and nowhere to get all the money.  We are talking a possible depression, severe, millions losing their jobs,  real estate collapsing.  Spending will collapse.  The economy will tank.  Show me one economist in the USA who says that all this spending is possible without a major blow to the economy.    I may be a former Democrat; but these "candidates" are talking nonsense.

Updated On: 2/26/20 at 06:20 PM

[UncleCharlie]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 7:18pm

Bronxdan said: "My fear is a Democratic win in November. You want to talk tanking? The Democrats are pushing ending all offshore shore drilling as well as fracking. That alone will cause a stock market crash. Gas prices maybe 5-6 bucks a gallon like Europe. Then health care to all including illegal aliens, as well as free college, free student loan forgiveness, free child day care, free vacation for new mothers and fathers,clobber the rich withtaxes, and even those who are not rich, maybe reparations for all minorities who have any connection to slaves, grants for free housing. Trillions upon trillions upon trillions and nowhere to get all the money. We are talking a possible depression, severe, millions losing their jobs, real estate collapsing. Spending will collapse. The economy will tank. Show me one economist in the USA who says that all this spendingis possible without a major blow to the economy. I may be a former Democrat; but these "candidates" are talking nonsense."

Not only that. Traffic lights will stop working so cars will be crashing into each other at every intersection. Planes will fall from the sky as jet fuel suddenly turns to apple juice, every smart phone will suddenly start playing Rick Astley songs and videos, and will be rendered unable to play anything else and worst of all, all television channels will lose their license and will have to cease broadcasting immediately with the sole exception of the Food Network who will be broadcast on every channel and will be required to show episodes of Guy Fieri's Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives 24 hours a day which is about 8 hours more a day than they already do. You're right. It will be horrible.

I suggest as a precaution, you leave the country NOW and start looking for space in another country where the rest of us can join you once the Democratic apocalypse happens. Good luck BronxDannyD. Send a postcard when you get settled.

Updated On: 2/27/20 at 07:18 PM

[javero]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 7:21pm

Bronxdan said: "My fear is a Democratic win in November. ... I may be a former Democrat; but these "candidates" are talking nonsense."

Former Democrat here too who is resigned to picking the lesser of two evils, the Dems whose hearts are always in the right places.  I can't take the duplicity of the GOP.  It represents itself as the party of fiscal conservatism and family values.  Interestingly enough though, the bulk of the corporate bailouts in US history have occurred on the GOP's watch, and many of the faithful have a very limited concept of "family".  And don't get me started on farm subsidies for multinational agri-corps with massive operatives in red states.  We also have to be good stewards of the earth.  I'm all for energy generation from renewables as long as they supplement traditional sources rather than abruptly displacing them by fiat.  It's troublesome when the gov't picks winners and losers in the economy while assailing China, Russia, Cuba, etc for centralized planning.

I detest Trump.  Let's be clear about that.  His house is built on three timber piles: (1) a wall at the southern border with Mexico; (2) a cheap US dollar; and (3) extremely low interest rates.  The first ain't going to happen because Speaker Pelosi's now rightfully more concerned with funding & contingency planning for a potential Coronavirus outbreak.

 In principle, a cheap US dollar benefits big-time exporters aka US-based multinational corporations.  Disturbingly though, our former allies are now using gold and each others' currencies instead of greenbacks to settle their accounts for several reasons including Trump's boarish treatment of other world leaders who aren't Putin.  Germany even repatriated much of its gold reserves held in US repositories due to Trump's isolationist tendencies.  They were being charged a fee for the service.  The dollar is cheap as hell because the Federal Reserve prints bills with abandon.  Ron Paul can explain the pernicious effects of fiat money much better than me.  Finally, my contrarian view is that interest rates will be forced upward which is in opposition to conventional wisdom.  We've enjoyed a bull stock market for much longer than anyone could have imagined.  Trump's wealthy friends have borrowed cheap money to buy up stocks that his trade tariffs short the hell out of.  And he's bribed red state small farmers to look the other way as those tariffs (and unplanned bad weather) have resulted in massive losses on their investments.

It's all smoke and mirrors. The coal jobs haven't returned; the wall has not /will never be fully constructed; the White House doesn't know the meaning of the word deficit; Vladimir Putin is our shadow president, and Trump's still a depraved simpleton with a white nationalist bent and a hard-on for any man in his circle who dons a military uniform.   Any Democrat seeking the nomination to head up the ticket (other than Bernie) would be the perfect antidote to Trump.  The Dems were in power several times before and the world as we knew it then  didn't come to an end.

Updated On: 2/26/20 at 07:21 PM

[Bronxdan]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 7:48pm

Honestly:
I see no chance at all for a Trump defeat in November.  Trump is more popular today then when he took office and more popular than Obama at the same stage in office.  Check the recent Gallop poll.  I also see no change at all in the electoral college state by state votes. The real problem is what the Democrats will do during his second term in office.  Will the make an effort to run the country or waste 4 more years and millions of dollars on foolish schemes that go nowhere? 

Updated On: 2/26/20 at 07:48 PM

[javero]

Posted: 2/26/20 at 8:38pm

I'm trying to remain optimistic about defeating Trump in Nov.  My world wouldn''t come to an end if he got re-elected though.  He's been Putin's patsy on the world stage & Mitch McConnell's useful idiot domestically.  His signature accomplishment has been appointing scores of McConnell-vetted relatively young conservatives to the federal judiciary.  I hate the deference he shows to Putin and Erdogan.  Shows a lack of geopolitical awareness as well as intellectual laziness.  Several of his remarks and tweets don't reveal much grounding in stocks, commodity futures, forex, or the credit markets either. 

And I still don't know just what daughter Ivanka does in the White House, or why Stephen Miller still has a job there period.  No one could ever convince me to drink that kool aid.  He's simply not an effective leader and the stock market is reacting to the widely-held view outside of Trumpistan that he's unfit for office.

 With a coronavirus outbreak within sight, Trump is arguably the last person any of us can look to for reassurance or just fuggin' facts.

Updated On: 2/26/20 at 08:38 PM

[dented146]

Posted: 3/7/20 at 6:35pm

Personally, I think Trump will be in a close race with Biden. I believe that Biden can win in Florida. He has tremendous support in the minority communities. Sanders would have been crushed there. A lot will depend upon how the disappointed Sanders supporters react. If Warren is on the ticket, Biden will do very well. 

The economy is good. Just look at the Broadway numbers. But this Virus is changing everything, unfortunately. 

[javero]

Posted: 3/8/20 at 12:04pm

I agree that Broadway's ticket sales were really impressive pre-Coronavirus.  But, other sectors of the economy with more of an impact on GDP were struggling mightily due to a combination of causes, especially the petroleum industry and manufacturing.  GDP was no where close to hitting the 4 - 6% annual growth rate that Trump claimed attainable while campaigning. 

Now, the Coronavirus outbreak has Russia and Saudi Arabia in an all-out oil price war that does the US no favors.  And unlike Trump, I don't think of Putin as friend of the US. 

Why Russia Is Rooting For Bernie Sanders

US manufacturing weakest in a decade

Saudis Plan Big Oil Output Hike, Beginning All-Out Price War 

 

 

Updated On: 3/8/20 at 12:04 PM

[javero]

Posted: 3/11/20 at 5:16pm

Wall Street tumbles, Dow confirms bear market

We have to brace ourselves because it will get worse before it gets better.