Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?

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Jessetenny
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#1
Posted: 1/20/20 at 3:44pm

We have multiple movie musicals coming out before next awards season, and I am curious to know what everyone thinks the films chances are at the Oscars. I know it's way too early, but it's fun to speculate. This is just for the major categories. 

In the Heights:

Lead Actor for Anthony Ramos,  Original Song, 

Everybody's Talking About Jamie: 

Unsure, but Lead Actor is a possibility

The Prom:

Best Picture, Lead Actress for Meryl Streep, Supporting Actress for Nicole Kidman and Ariana DeBose, Supporting Actor for Andrew Rannells, Lead Actor for James Corden

West Side Story:

Best Picture, Lead Actor for Ansel Elgort, Lead Actress for Rachel Zegler, Supporting Actor for Brian D'Arcy James, Supporting Actress for Ariana DeBose and Rita Moreno.

Updated On: 1/20/20 at 03:44 PM
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#2
Posted: 1/20/20 at 3:47pm
Doubt any actor will get nominated.
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#3
Posted: 1/20/20 at 7:25pm
Unless they rewrite The Prom, it is getting zero nominations. The material is Not Good and will not land well with non-theatre audiences. Netflix would also have to pay for its Oscar campaign, which they only do for one or two select, high-profile films a year. As this is one of Ryan Murphy’s 5-movie deal, it doesn’t seem like something they’d invest in for awards.
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#4
Posted: 1/20/20 at 7:35pm
Rita Moreno isn’t in In the Heights. She’s in West Side Story
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#5
Posted: 1/20/20 at 7:40pm

BwayLB said: "Rita Moreno isn’t in In the Heights. She’s in West Side Story"

My bad, I remember people saying she was potentially in it, I have updated my predictions.

Updated On: 1/20/20 at 07:40 PM
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#6
Posted: 1/20/20 at 7:40pm

VotePeron said: "Unless they rewrite The Prom, it is getting zero nominations."

Same with Jamie x

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#7
Posted: 1/20/20 at 7:46pm

Jessetenny said: "BwayLB said: "Rita Moreno isn’t in In the Heights. She’s in West Side Story"

My bad, I remember people saying she was potentially in it, I haveupdated my predictions.
"

Forgiven

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#8
Posted: 1/20/20 at 8:29pm

I think Rachel Zegler will win Best Actress. 

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#9
Posted: 1/20/20 at 8:41pm
Doesn’t Moreno just have a tiny cameo in the new WSS?
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#10
Posted: 1/20/20 at 8:43pm

I know this is just for fun and maybe I’m just too pragmatic for my own good, but I just feel like there’s a far greater possibility of at least half of the 2020-2021 movie musicals sucking then them all pulling in Oscar noms.

(I’m clearly in the minority because I never assumed Netflix would push The Prom for theatrical release. I just assumed it’d be a Netflix only release, like American Son was. Everything I’ve read has talked about getting it rushed to the platform by fall.)

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#11
Posted: 1/20/20 at 11:51pm

Jordan Catalano said: "Doesn’t Moreno just have a tiny cameo in the new WSS?"

Unless someone has seen either the shooting script or a rough edit I don't think we can say yet. Her character replaces Doc, so it's likely that she'd still only have a handful of scenes depending on what Tony Kushner has done with the character. However, Judi Dench did win an Oscar for barely 10 minutes of screen time in Shakespeare in Love, so who can say what might happen with Rita Moreno.

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#12
Posted: 1/21/20 at 12:06am

VotePeron said: "Unless they rewrite The Prom, it is getting zero nominations. The material is Not Good and will not land well with non-theatre audiences. Netflix would also have to pay for its Oscar campaign, which they only do for one or two select, high-profile films a year. As this is one of Ryan Murphy’s 5-movie deal, it doesn’t seem like something they’d invest in for awards. "

The movie has Meryl Streep & Nicole Kidman. It will get a push. It may not be THE IRISHMAN or MARRIAGE STORY level, but could be similar to what they did for DOLEMITE IS MY NAME, especially for the Globes. 

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Updated On: 1/21/20 at 12:06 AM
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#13
Posted: 1/21/20 at 12:17am

Yeah, it has a great cast, but the material is....eh...not good... Unless these stars somehow bring something new out of it or it's been reworked for the medium. 

And I don't think WSS would garner any acting noms. 

And I didn't even know Jamie was getting a movie. Who is producing it? It might get zero attention in the US. 

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#14
Posted: 1/21/20 at 12:34am

IdinaBellFoster said: "VotePeron said: "Unless they rewrite The Prom, it is getting zero nominations. The material is Not Good and will not land well with non-theatre audiences. Netflix would also have to pay for its Oscar campaign, which they only do for one or two select, high-profile films a year. As this is one of Ryan Murphy’s 5-movie deal, it doesn’t seem like something they’d invest in for awards. "

The movie has Meryl Streep & Nicole Kidman. It will get a push. It may not be THE IRISHMAN or MARRIAGE STORY level, but could be similar to what they did for DOLEMITE IS MY NAME, especially for the Globes.
"

Meryl Streep starred in The Laundromat, a Netflix original movie released this Fall. That was not pushed for any awards. Dolemite's campaign also fell completely flat on it's face, so that's not a great comparison. I appreciate the sentiment, but seeing as Irishman and Marriage Story are totally out of this years Oscars race already, it doesn't look like Netflix is making any big awards splashes with a bad niche musical.

 

Updated On: 1/21/20 at 12:34 AM
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#15
Posted: 1/21/20 at 8:43am
Jamie and The Prom have exactly zero chances of being nominated for anything... maybe Best Original Song IF it's a weak year. In the Heights and West Side Story are very unlikely toss ups, but could be nominated in technical categories.
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#16
Posted: 1/21/20 at 8:53am

Well the question really is - will Netflix release THE PROM in theaters and thereby make it eligible for Oscar (and other film award) consideration?  The discourse on whether their Oscar campaigns are 'successful' or not is entirely subjective.  Netflix is actually the studio that leads the Oscar nominations this year, with 24 total for their films - so  I'd say they are doing something right even if not every one of their films that is eligible ends up being nominated.  Sight unseen, I'd say the PROM with its hammy group of characters and its starry cast  would have more chance at getting some supporting nominations that something like IN THE HEIGHTS.  It seems like the type of thing (that if the film is good) would be natural for a SAG Ensemble nomination too so I think there is a fair chance Netflix will end up releasing it in theatres. Time will tell.

If WEST SIDE STORY gets any acting nominations, it will probably be for the same roles that won Academy Awards for Rita Moreno and George Chakiris the first time.

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#17
Posted: 1/21/20 at 9:05am

I think it'd be fun for them to do a The Irishman type thing for The Prom. Release it in an actual theater setting. 

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#18
Posted: 1/21/20 at 9:35am

I’m really hoping In The Heights gets a lot of accolades. I’m expecting it to do well in the box office because it’s not only culturally relevant and a known show but because it’s got well known names from Hamilton behind it (Anthony and Lin). People who are waiting for the Hamilton movie are going to go see this, this could translate into some serious buzz.

I’m crossing my fingers that it gets a cinematography nod and maybe Chu will get a director nomination. Even from watching the trailer, it seems like Chu might have broken the mold on an immersive movie musical. It usually seems like it’s filmed like a proshot, which is safe but a little boring, or it’s filmed like a traditional movie, which causes it to lose some of its ‘oomph’ for lack of a better term. 

In an ideal world, Olga Merediz would get nominated for her crazy emotional portrayal of Abuela Claudia but, knowing the way the Academy operates, I don’t think it’s likely. Which is SUCH a shame, her performance is one that sticks with you for years. 

Like the OP said, Anthony Ramos is probably going to pull a Leading Actor award but I’m not sure which original song will be nominated. Maybe 96,000 or Carnaval Del Barrio. Something upbeat that’s gonna make it’s way up the charts

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#19
Posted: 1/21/20 at 10:31am
I'm not saying that Olga will be bad (far from it)... but how can you tell she should be nominated for her "crazy emotional portrayal" if you've only seen 3 minutes of the whole movie? Also, none of the songs you mentioned are original songs (and as far as we know, the movie doesn't have one)
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#20
Posted: 1/21/20 at 10:34am

In the Heights is a summer release so it's going to have to be a massive hit both critically and at the box office in order to sustain momentum through the end of the year. It seems unlikely, but I do have a good feeling about this one. I'm rooting for it.

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#21
Posted: 1/21/20 at 10:36am

sparksatmidnight said: "I'm not saying that Olga will be bad (far from it)... but how can you tell she should be nominated for her "crazy emotional portrayal" if you've only seen 3 minutes of the whole movie? Also, none of the songs you mentioned are original songs (and as far as we know, the movie doesn't have one)"

If it’s anything like her broadway performances, which are lauded for its emotional energy, I think she’ll do just fine. Also, definitely wasn’t thinking through the song thing, scratch that.

Updated On: 1/21/20 at 10:36 AM
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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#22
Posted: 1/21/20 at 11:31am

I think we should first hope that IN THE HEIGHTS is a good film. The trailer is promising. It doesn't feel like typical awards fodder - more a fun summer popcorn movie. And there is nothing wrong with that. It doesn't necessarily need to be an Oscar contender.

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#23
Posted: 1/21/20 at 5:14pm

inmyownlittlecorner said: "
Like the OP said, Anthony Ramos is probably going to pull a Leading Actor award but I’m not sure which original song will be nominated. Maybe 96,000 or Carnaval Del Barrio. Something upbeat that’s gonna make it’s way up the charts"

Those aren't original songs.

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#24
Posted: 1/21/20 at 5:16pm

hork said: "inmyownlittlecorner said: "
Like the OP said, Anthony Ramos is probably going to pull a Leading Actor award but I’m not sure which original song will be nominated. Maybe 96,000 or Carnaval Del Barrio. Something upbeat that’s gonna make it’s way up the charts"

Those aren't original songs.
"

And I already said I made a mistake in a later post. It was an accident, misunderstood something. We all have those days

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Oscars 2021 - The Year of Movie Musicals?#25
Posted: 1/22/20 at 2:06pm

VotePeron said: "IdinaBellFoster said: "VotePeron said: "Unless they rewrite The Prom, it is getting zero nominations. The material is Not Good and will not land well with non-theatre audiences. Netflix would also have to pay for its Oscar campaign, which they only do for one or two select, high-profile films a year. As this is one of Ryan Murphy’s 5-movie deal, it doesn’t seem like something they’d invest in for awards. "

The movie has Meryl Streep & Nicole Kidman. It will get a push. It may not be THE IRISHMAN or MARRIAGE STORY level, but could be similar to what they did for DOLEMITE IS MY NAME, especially for the Globes.
"

Meryl Streep starred in The Laundromat, a Netflix original movie released this Fall. That was not pushed for any awards. Dolemite's campaign also fell completely flat on it's face, so that's not a great comparison. I appreciate the sentiment, but seeing as Irishman and Marriage Story are totally out of this years Oscars race already, it doesn't look like Netflix is making any big awards splashes with a bad niche musical.


"

How can you say that Irishman and Marriage Story are totally out of this years Oscars race?   Irishman has 10 nominations and Marriage Story 6, both include Best Pictures.    Dern is the front runner for the Best Supporting Actress win.   Do you mean their chance of winning?